ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LSU2001]

Thanks, I still can't find it but that makes more sense than a new issue. I also thank you for the graphic.
tim

[StarmanHDB]

This might sound like a dumb question, but.....

We are due west of Lake Okeechobee, but not all the way to the coast. We have had some crazy weather all afternoon, and it keeps getting crazier. Almost like squalls...no rain, then rain - hard rain, and thunder and lightning. Then it dries up....you get it.

Can this be - I don't know if its' called "feeder bands" since this isn't really a storm yet - but is it possible, this crazy weather is possibly related to the storm that doesn't wanna be? I mean, I deliberately included the above clip, cause it seems to show the "bands" of weather I am referring to....going across the center of FL, at the very top of the pic.

What do you all think?

Sounds like normal Florida diurnal weather. Mind you the convergence is a bit stronger than normal. No bands or squalls from this system here.

No, true, not squalls in the normal sense. But the way this weather has been today is weird. I mean, it keeps starting and stopping raining.....THAT's not normal "summer build-up" of storms....

It's definitely feeling and looking very "tropical" down here in Fort Lauderdale these past few nights. At first I was thinking with the endless stream of information on 99L that it could be me projecting, but in all the years I've lived down here, it's definitely "tropical". I don't know if it means anything, but it definitely has my Spidey Senses tingling. While I'm not hoping for anything, I'm getting a (very unscientific) feeling that if not 99L, there will be something (or more) nailing us this season. Let's hope not.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

300+ pages (combined on all pages) for an Invest has to be a record.

This reminds me of Chris 2006..

More like a repeat of Erika last year--the most reliable model essentially blew it and had us all fooled.

And I would be willing to bet if this was the good ole days with John hopes tropical update it wouldn't be given 20 seconds worth of discussion.

[TheStormExpert]

This has a LONG ways to go before becoming a tropical cyclone so why would they issue a TCFA?

[La Sirena]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_ ... tion_Alert

I'm still learning...why would the Navy put out this notice? Especially, if NHC Has dropped 99L's odds...

I think the TCFA that was issued was sent out almost a day and a half ago.

Thx for the clarification!

[AJC3]

This has a LONG ways to go before becoming a tropical cyclone so why would they issue a TCFA?

The TCFA was issued 34 hours ago, so it's no longer valid. I'd have to go back and look but I suspect there may have been at least one earlier TCFA issued for that area.

edit: Nope - this was the only one issued that I can find. In any event, in case anyone is thinking about it, let's not get into the debate of whether or not a 34-hour old product should or shouldn't have been issued by JTWC. Thanks.

[Steve]

Different feel here too. No rain but different wind and general air. It feels like it's out the E or ESE.

[stephen23]

What model was it the other night that showed 99l sucking another low into it that was located to the northeast and creating a massive and strong storm as it did? It appears that is what is happening right now. Looks like the new invest is being pulled into 99l

[Steve]

What model was it the other night that showed 99l sucking another low into it that was located to the northeast and creating a massive and strong storm as it did? It appears that is what is happening right now. Looks like the new invest is being pulled into 99l

I don't remember the model, but more than one pulled in Fiona, pulled 99L into Fiona and merged them together. It's been a trip as the atmosphere has stayed a step ahead of the models.

[daylynsmom]

What model was it the other night that showed 99l sucking another low into it that was located to the northeast and creating a massive and strong storm as it did? It appears that is what is happening right now. Looks like the new invest is being pulled into 99l

I don't remember the model, but more than one pulled in Fiona, pulled 99L into Fiona and merged them together. It's been a trip as the atmosphere has stayed a step ahead of the models.

The Canadian model pulled 99L into the remanants of Fiona.

[SeGaBob]

There's a decent burst of convection right now...not sure it amounts to much though.

[SouthFLTropics]

I think this is a lot like watching water boil. If you keep watching it, it never will happen. Maybe we should all walk away for a bit and quit watching and something will happen.

[robbielyn]

I have to add the the air is breezy warm and tropical as well all the way up to north of tampa I dont know if thats a Ull doing that but the sky had the blue/gray background with luminescent white small puffy clouds in front of it. must be a very juicy environment and a clue that something is brewing in the tropics.

[HurriGuy]

This has been exhausting. This has turned into the most complex water vapor loop I have ever seen. Just mass chaos.

The HWRF, NAM and UKMET insist at some point a large upper high will dominate the Gulf and that will be the main feature to restore some order. That and the ULL that has been torching Gaston all day long. Very unsure what what will be going on over the Lower 48 and whatever is going on near Bermuda.

The GFS and ECMWF also have the upper high over the Gulf, but they just look more squished. I don't know....very difficult stuff.

Non-stop changes.

[chaser1]

I think this is a lot like watching water boil. If you keep watching it, it never will happen. Maybe we should all walk away for a bit and quit watching and something will happen.

"water boiling" lol; earlier today I was thinking the same thing but what came to mind was "glue drying"..... same difference

[SeGaBob]

Is everyone just staring at the board index? seems to be where the most activity is.

[gatorcane]

Is everyone just staring at the board index? seems to be where the most activity is.

Ever since we moved to the new PHP version, it seems it shows members mostly in the board index. I am guessing there is some setting that if a user is not active on a particular page for X minutes, it shows them active on the default index page. Perhaps mods can look into this because it would be nice to see who is on what page like we used to have. That value of X was probably set a lot longer in the older PHP version hence in this particular case, most members would be shown in the "Active Topics" page since there are multiple active invests of interest to most members.

[dexterlabio]

Okay now, my thoughts busted big time..and that's because of the Euro..

Just shows us how important the MJO is in aiding TC development. Not necessarily a requirement, but imagine if the active phase was on this part of the world.. This would have been Hermine two days ago.

[HurriGuy]

Anyone happen to take note of 00z model track guidance? Very tightly clustered in the next 72 hours all of a sudden

[Rail Dawg]

I'm going to pilot a commercial jet from Houston to Punta Cana, Dominican Republic tomorrow morning and will fly overhead Invest 99L.

When we land in PUJ I'll post an observation to the forum.

I'm (like many of you) interested in what is out there with a view at 37,000 ft.