ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm still holding by my prediction that it's not going to develop. I know people have been replying that I'm completely wrong, that it will develop, and I'll gladly serve myself a plate of crow if I am wrong in my opinion, but I'm sorry but I just don't see it getting its act together . Also if you notice the NHC said conditions become only a "little" more favorable once it enters into the Gulf, so that should tell you all you need to know . I think they will drop it from 50% down to 30% tomorrow in my opinion.

[stormhunter7]

I'm going to pilot a commercial jet from Houston to Punta Cana, Dominican Republic tomorrow morning and will fly overhead Invest 99L.

When we land in PUJ I'll post an observation to the forum.

I'm (like many of you) interested in what is out there with a view at 37,000 ft.

Please take pics and or video and you probably will be famous for a day!

Remember, wide shot, medium shot, close up shot and shoot horizontal on a phone or tablet! lol

[jlauderdal]

What model was it the other night that showed 99l sucking another low into it that was located to the northeast and creating a massive and strong storm as it did? It appears that is what is happening right now. Looks like the new invest is being pulled into 99l

I don't remember the model, but more than one pulled in Fiona, pulled 99L into Fiona and merged them together. It's been a trip as the atmosphere has stayed a step ahead of the models.

Gfs merged the fiona energy with 99l as iit was moving north toward nc busting the ridge, like that was ever going to.happen..euro has been taking heat this week but this wasnt an epic win for the gfs either..nowcast mode still in effect

[Hammy]

Is everyone just staring at the board index? seems to be where the most activity is.

Maybe everyone's just dumbfounded at what's happening and have no words.

I'm sticking with no development with with this myself--the LLC (or what exists of it) was just spit out from the convection in the last hour, at night, when this is usually at it's strongest.

[rickybobby]

Fox 35 just said Florida is in the clear.

[stormwise]

Divergence is looking optimal in the Florida straits shear is low and sst v/warm , 99L will get a boost.

[Bailey1777]

Was over on the model page and the spaghetti plots were tightly clustered heading to Texas, what's up with that?

[SoupBone]

Is everyone just staring at the board index? seems to be where the most activity is.

Maybe everyone's just dumbfounded at what's happening and have no words.

I'm sticking with no development with with this myself--the LLC (or what exists of it) was just spit out from the convection in the last hour, at night, when this is usually at it's strongest.

Link? I'm bored.

[ConvergenceZone]

If it was 2005, this probably would develop, but over the last few years the Atlantic has been an ocean filled with nothing but Dry Air, Shear, and Upper Level Lows, so you almost come to expect it anymore anytime something has a "chance" of developing. And so far 2016 doesn't seem any different, although last season was a bit surprising, and we made it through quite a few letters.

[Hammy]

Is everyone just staring at the board index? seems to be where the most activity is.

Maybe everyone's just dumbfounded at what's happening and have no words.

I'm sticking with no development with with this myself--the LLC (or what exists of it) was just spit out from the convection in the last hour, at night, when this is usually at it's strongest.

Link? I'm bored.

A bit SE of southern Andros.

[SoupBone]

If it was 2005, this probably would develop, but over the last few years the Atlantic has been an ocean filled with nothing but Dry Air, Shear, and Upper Level Lows, so you almost come to expect it anymore anytime something has a "chance" of developing. And so far 2016 doesn't seem any different, although last season was a bit surprising, and we made it through quite a few letters.

I don't know. We still have a lot of season left, and so far, it's at least more favorable than years past. I think personally that 99L is almost done, but the season is not close to over.

Even though this is still an invest, I haven't had this much fun tracking and laughing at comments. "Cat 5 to Louisiana!" to "Open wave headed out to sea!", 99L has definitely provided me with entertainment.

[ConvergenceZone]

If it was 2005, this probably would develop, but over the last few years the Atlantic has been an ocean filled with nothing but Dry Air, Shear, and Upper Level Lows, so you almost come to expect it anymore anytime something has a "chance" of developing. And so far 2016 doesn't seem any different, although last season was a bit surprising, and we made it through quite a few letters.

I don't know. We still have a lot of season left, and so far, it's at least more favorable than years past. I think personally that 99L is almost done, but the season is not close to over.

Even though this is still an invest, I haven't had this much fun tracking and laughing at comments. "Cat 5 to Louisiana!" to "Open wave headed out to sea!", 99L has definitely provided me with entertainment.

A lot of season left, but it will probably be filled with Shear, Dry Air and Upper Level Lows, sorry I'm just very skeptical until it shows me something different

[SoupBone]

99L has fatigued so many people that no one is posting the GFS model run.

[N2FSU]

I've been away for 8 hours and come back to see it looking pitiful. Has it even moved? Without going back and reading 10 pages, can someone give a quick summary of where this stands now? Pretty much dead? Still looking to develop tomorrow or Sunday like the models have insisted on for quite awhile? I see that the 0z spaghetti models made a huge shift west towards Texas.

[jasons2k]

I understand the frustration but honestly folks this is nothing unusual. In fact you can look at weather graphics from a couple of days ago in Fl (like from NBC 2 for example) and they have a big circle over the Bahamas with a caption "development possible this weekend". I'm still not surprised and not ready to bring out bones yet. I still have the same opinion as the last two days - weak and SW of the guidance and nothing's gonna gel or stack until the Fl straits. Patience...

[LJFire1467]

Werent most models really starting development on sunday anyway?

[Hammy]

99L has fatigued so many people that no one is posting the GFS model run.

There's basically nothing to post--there's essentially no model support any longer from anything other than the HWRF.

[floridasun78]

i say a week ago don't taker models yet because their change alot look how show hurr coming to south fl see look how look now i seen this happen alot i wait until five day out and still keep mind open because not thing is writing in stone look how 99l did i now this hype alot in foum now their feel windout saying 2016 season is done i got feeling L-Niña not total here that why not having big amount system doing here what thinking about La-Niña https://www.climate.gov/enso what their saying Niña not all the way here maybe that why shear still high in tropical

[stormwise]

I understand the frustration but honestly folks this is nothing unusual. In fact you can look at weather graphics from a couple of days ago in Fl (like from NBC 2 for example) and they have a big circle over the Bahamas with a caption "development possible this weekend". I'm still not surprised and not ready to bring out bones yet. I still have the same opinion as the last two days - weak and SW of the guidance and nothing's gonna gel or stack until the Fl straits. Patience...

I agree with the Florida straits , also NHC did say in the first advisories 99L would likely either develop in the first 48hrs or the next 4-5 day there was no mention of a storm in between.

[mobilebay]

99L has fatigued so many people that no one is posting the GFS model run.

There's basically nothing to post--there's essentially no model support any longer from anything other than the HWRF.

I have been following troical weather for about 30 years. I can honestly say this is the most frustrating tropical wave a have ever tracked. Period