Tropical Wave about to emerge West Africa (Is Invest 92L)

[Alyono]

The MU just went in a single run from a massive ridge north of this to a low that takes up the entire Atlantic west of 55W...

[LoveWeather12]

Is there anything in the future we need to watch? What are the steering patten going to be like. I live in FL so I'm wondering if they'll be another storm threat?

[cycloneye]

00z ECMWF continues with the westward track and slowly gains intensity.

[cycloneye]

More ridging until here in this 06Z GFS run.

[cycloneye]

Strikes Bermuda.

[gatorcane]

Looks like we will see development as both the GFS and EC are bullish. But still no mention by NHC?

[Gustywind]

Looks like we will see development as both the GFS and EC are bullish. But still no mention by NHC?

Yeah that could be a good consensus Gator view on this forward angle. . Let's wait and see if NHC will mention it in the next TWO's...

[SFLcane]

The MU just went in a single run from a massive ridge north of this to a low that takes up the entire Atlantic west of 55W...

Its the next one remember.

[cycloneye]

The pouch group updated 25L.It will be important to see at what latitude it emerges the African Coast.



Position:13N, 9E

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2016/P25L.html

[cycloneye]

12z GFS emerging West Africa position is slightly more south of previous runs.Let's see how this runs goes ahead.

[RL3AO]

This one could be fun to follow. Lot of model agreement about the sub-tropical ridge following the system westward. Could be the ACE monster we've been waiting for.

[cycloneye]

Continues westbound.

[RL3AO]

12z GFS is a lot faster than previous runs. This could get quite a bit further west this run.

[cycloneye]

Slightly westsouthwest now.

[RL3AO]

I'm starting to get fascinated by this system. There's almost universal support for ridging in the Northeast and SE Canada in week 2. Looks like one to watch around the 2nd week of September.

[cycloneye]

Oh boy Northern Leewards.

[Siker]

UKMET has it trucking virtually due west:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 18.0N 21.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.08.2016 84 18.0N 21.4W 1008 25
1200UTC 31.08.2016 96 17.8N 25.3W 1006 32
0000UTC 01.09.2016 108 18.1N 29.1W 1008 31
1200UTC 01.09.2016 120 18.4N 33.5W 1007 37
0000UTC 02.09.2016 132 18.7N 37.7W 1008 40
1200UTC 02.09.2016 144 18.8N 42.0W 1006 42

[RL3AO]

Thats a pretty worrying setup at 500 mb.

[cycloneye]

Cat 3.

[WeatherEmperor]

Omg the islands




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