ATL: HERMINE - Models

[LJFire1467]

Doesnt do much but it goes to central gulf then hooks to al/ms

[drezee]

I think the HWRF is about to go HAM on 99L on the 6z run. To me, the first three frames so the little upper low positioning itself to be an outflow jet.

[drewschmaltz]

Yep. HWRF has it deepening to 986 at hour 63 and moving NNW at 82.3W 25.1N.

Continues blowing up while staying close to the peninsula. 962 at hour 81.

Good entertainment but hard to believe.

[drezee]

Yep. HWRF has it deepening to 986 at hour 63 and moving NNW at 82.3W 25.1N.

I see...also side note...I do not think any models understands the natural lift and surface convergence created between FL and Cuba. You have winds from the E piling into 99L taking the path of least resistance over the water versus the land. This is basic fluid dynamics. If I were in S FL, I would keep my options open. Especially in the keys

[La Sirena]

Yep. HWRF has it deepening to 986 at hour 63 and moving NNW at 82.3W 25.1N.

I see...also side note...I do not think any models understands the natural lift and surface convergence created between FL and Cuba. You have winds from the E piling into 99L taking the path of least resistance over the water versus the land. This is basic fluid dynamics. If I were in S FL, I would keep my options open. Especially in the keys

It's a bit hard here in the lower Keys to keep your options open at this point lol! How much weight do we put into the HWRF? I know anything can happen in the Straits!

[drezee]

really Hwrf, right to Tampa? Major hurricane even almost right over tampa...yuck

[stormlover2013]

Hwrf has been up and down just like all other models crazy

[StormHunter72]

really Hwrf, right to Tampa? Major hurricane even almost right over tampa...yuck

All I can say is WOW. Worst case scenario for Tampa Bay Area.

[jlauderdal]

Yep. HWRF has it deepening to 986 at hour 63 and moving NNW at 82.3W 25.1N.

I see...also side note...I do not think any models understands the natural lift and surface convergence created between FL and Cuba. You have winds from the E piling into 99L taking the path of least resistance over the water versus the land. This is basic fluid dynamics. If I were in S FL, I would keep my options open. Especially in the keys

It's a bit hard here in the lower Keys to keep your options open at this point lol! How much weight do we put into the HWRF? I know anything can happen in the Straits!

Entertaiment purposes only..watch radar, sat and land obs....hwrf could put a 3 into fll tomorrow and i wouldn't lift a finger with the shutters because of its output

[Frank2]

It's a bit hard here in the lower Keys to keep your options open at this point lol! How much weight do we put into the HWRF? I know anything can happen in the Straits!

I would just go with the NHC TWO - the models have not done a good job all week except the GFS so no reason for the NHC to go beyond what they already said, that things may become more favorable in a couple of days, once the system is in the Gulf - maybe...

[caneman]

Can someone post the graphic of HWRF? I'm in the Tampa Bay area. Not that I buy it, would just like to see. Thanks

[drewschmaltz]

I don't know how to post but you can go here http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=99L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016082706&fh=93&xpos=0&ypos=219

[drezee]

Can someone post the graphic of HWRF? I'm in the Tampa Bay area. Not that I buy it, would just like to see. Thanks

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=163

[caneman]

Thanks. Holy cow that would be the big one, we all fear here. Piling water up into Tampa Bay. The angle could be worse though if it were coming from the S..W. Not likely though, no one has a handle. Now, if GFS or Euro also showed that then my heart would start racing....

[HurricaneBelle]

Thanks. Holy cow that would be the big one, we all fear here. Piling water up into Tampa Bay. The angle could be worse though if it were coming from the S..W. Not likely though, no one has a handle. Now, if GFS or Euro also showed that then my heart would start racing....

The next frame shows it going in around Sarasota-Bradenton which means the winds would be offshore in Tampa Bay, all the surge would be along the SW FL coast. There would be serious wind issues around TB, and there would be some bay-side flooding in St. Pete/Eastern Pinellas but it would be more like the 1946 hurricane which spared Hillsborough/Pinellas the worst.

[Emmett_Brown]

The HWRF certainly has been all over the place... or has it? When I think back, over the past couple of days, it has been consistently developing this in the E gulf, and favored some sort of north or NE turn.

[BobHarlem]

HWRF is one of those that only really shines when something is actually developed, I wouldn't give it much thought before then.

[caneman]

Thanks. Holy cow that would be the big one, we all fear here. Piling water up into Tampa Bay. The angle could be worse though if it were coming from the S..W. Not likely though, no one has a handle. Now, if GFS or Euro also showed that then my heart would start racing....

The next frame shows it going in around Sarasota-Bradenton which means the winds would be offshore in Tampa Bay, all the surge would be along the SW FL coast. There would be serious wind issues around TB, and there would be some bay-side flooding in St. Pete/Eastern Pinellas but it would be more like the 1946 hurricane which spared Hillsborough/Pinellas the worst.

Thanks. I understand that. I wasnt highlighting a particular point of landfall this far out. At 96 hours out, it would be well in the margin of error to end up 50 miles north. It was more of a what if.

[N2FSU]

06z NAM +84hr. Same general track as HWRF. yeh I know, it's the NAM.

[caneman]

Someone correct me if wrong but I believe I saw that HWRF was most accurate with intensity though so that is cause for concern alone.