ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Cyclone. Did they cancel teal 75 sceduled for today?

Yes canceled.

[drezee]

I really mean what I said earlier. If you are in school for meteorology or thinking you may be, save the 1km Visibles today. You would be able to write a great paper on cyclogenesis. The cirrus is now clearing so that you can see the inflow. This setup can ramp fast. I hope they fly recon today...

[NDG]

That GOES 14 SRSOR view is amazing. Some real convective boiling going on now. Over in the models thread, the HWRF as usual is a scary thing with 952mb heading for Sarasota-Tampa.

sat: http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20160827&endtime=latest&nframes=60&band=1&res=1&aniwidth=1000&aniheight=1600

HWRF Aug. 31: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=99L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016082706&fh=93&xpos=0&ypos=219

That is a nice sat loop. If you watch it you can see the low level clouds take a hard left and be pulled back into the area of convection. Definite cyclonic turning.

Very nice hr satellite loop indeed, thanks for sharing.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

Location: 23.4°N 77.9°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 100 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 80 NM

[drezee]

NHC needs to send a resources permitting Recon out this afternoon...It is too close to the coast to wait until tomorrow.

[ronjon]

I'm sorry. Just don't see that best track position. Too far west and north. Think it's further SE on the north side of the southern convective burst.

[tolakram]

live visible. Is this the area some of you are looking at, where the new convection is firing? I could be dead wrong but I'm just not seeing any organized inflow, but perhaps this small area is starting something.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-78&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=black

[caneman]

If they're right on wind speed it could actually be a t.d. now. Hope they do send recon asap. To close to land now to horse around, especially with HWRF wind speed estimate

[GCANE]

That tower at 23.8N 76.4W is looking good.
Moving west and pushing out cirrus.
It definitely has a low-level infeed.
Sitting in a steady supply of 3000 CAPE air.

[drezee]

live visible. Is this the area some of you are looking at, where the new convection is firing? I could be dead wrong but I'm just not seeing any organized inflow, but perhaps this small area is starting something.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-78&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=black

Zoom in here

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/inde ... height=700

[HurriGuy]

I will be highly disappointed if recon is not sent.

I could be totally off, but by far the best conditions it has been in

[La Sirena]

NHC needs to send a resources permitting Recon out this afternoon...It is too close to the coast to wait until tomorrow.

I'm pretty sure I read the recon for today was cancelled. I'm sure they have their reasons....but I would've liked to see what they found. Obviously, they don't see anything worth investigating?

[SeGaBob]

I'm doubtful this will sustain long enough for recon to be scheduled...oh well.

[drezee]

TEAL 71 still might go

[GCANE]

Theta-e is also building a stronger ridge to its west. Up to 362 and extending from the straights across Miami and to the NE.
Hate to say it, but any tropical low moving into a strong theta-e ridge is textbook intensification.

[JaxGator]

There is more convection forming quickly to the north and west of where the big convection is firing. My guess is that they will merge.

[drezee]

Theta-e is also building a stronger ridge to its west. Up to 362 and extending from the straights across Miami and to the NE.
Hate to say it, but any tropical low moving into a strong theta-e ridge is textbook intensification.

Agreed, the visible is beautiful...

TEAL 71 could still go. HH twitter feed: https://twitter.com/53d_hha

They sometimes will post if they do a resources permitting...

[GCANE]

Those two towers are definitely closing in on the CoC

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 271245.jpg

[HurriGuy]

Those two towers are definitely closing in on the CoC

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 271245.jpg

Unlike yesterday when they were being blown away due to the sheer. Big differences this AM

[tarheelprogrammer]

The LLC is now very evident looking at the GOES-14. It is right above Cuba and heading WNW. Convection is building on top of it and this is the first time I remember this happening since it was near the Leeward Islands.