ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[rockyman]

One thing I always remind myself (and others): Don't judge a system by its history of failures...judge it by its current status and future conditions. If this system had just "popped up" in the Bahamas this morning, without its history of underperformance, I think there would be more alarm at its current satellite presentation.

[drezee]

One thing I always remind myself (and others): Don't judge a system by its history of failures...judge it by its current status and future conditions. If this system had just "popped up" in the Bahamas this morning, without its history of underperformance, I think there would be more alarm at its current satellite presentation.

Very good point, the boiling frog theory...

[benh316]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... peed_ms=80

This loop - enough said about the coming cyclonic conditions

[benh316]

One thing I always remind myself (and others): Don't judge a system by its history of failures...judge it by its current status and future conditions. If this system had just "popped up" in the Bahamas this morning, without its history of underperformance, I think there would be more alarm at its current satellite presentation.

It's scary to think such well-intentioned and educated enthusiasts can make such a simple mistake as treating weather systems and patterns as "intelligent" whereas they are always conditional upon their environment. If that environment changes - so do they regardless of past highs and lows (pun intended)

[canefan]

That GOES 14 SRSOR view is amazing. Some real convective boiling going on now. Over in the models thread, the HWRF as usual is a scary thing with 952mb heading for Sarasota-Tampa.

sat: http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20160827&endtime=latest&nframes=60&band=1&res=1&aniwidth=1000&aniheight=1600

HWRF Aug. 31: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=99L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2016082706&fh=93&xpos=0&ypos=219

Amazing view indeed! Anyone notice that interesting swirl in the GOM off the coast of Tampa?

[NDG]

live visible. Is this the area some of you are looking at, where the new convection is firing? I could be dead wrong but I'm just not seeing any organized inflow, but perhaps this small area is starting something.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-78&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=black

Zoom in here

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/inde ... height=700

Yeap, you can clearly see see it when you zoom in, is not very defined still a bit elongated SW to NW, plus surface reports over Cuba do indeed show that it is a closed circulation.

[HurriGuy]

Before we could tell when the convection was fading out, but with the rapid-scan every time one tower dies down, another one is flaring up

[tolakram]

Zoom in here

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/inde ... height=700

That's pretty awesome. I do see what looks like a circulation forming but I've been fooled by these before. Wouldn't it be something if, now that most of the models have dropped support, it develops?

[NDG]

This is where I see the COC, maybe a tad more east than this as it is somewhat elongated, the wind directions in the red arrows are actual reports from land reporting Stations near the low pressure center. Deep Convection is trying to catch up to the low pressure center.

[Agua]

Well, I don't know about your gravity wave but it appears to me that a LLC has formed over the last 20 minutes.

[tolakram]

Here's an animated GIF of that area.

[drezee]

Well, I don't know about your gravity wave but it appears to me that a LLC has formed over the last 20 minutes.

As I said, this is going to be textbook. I do wish that there was recon out there though.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Here's an animated GIF of that area.

[img ]http://i.imgur.com/6Ap9iHv.gif[/img]

No doubt that is a true LLC and not an eddy imho.

[JaxGator]

Here's an animated GIF of that area.

[img ]http://i.imgur.com/6Ap9iHv.gif[/img]

No doubt that is a true LLC and not an eddy imho.

And look how fast those storms formed right around or over it.

[TPAcane]

Stunning....just stunning....I am glued once again to this forum....drinking coffee and just watching this in 1K resolution. Mother Nature is just breathtaking...watching the dark shadow cast by the exploding convection fall over the center.

[pgoss11]

It certainly looks like the LLC has formed. Do we have liftoff? What an amazing storm to track!

[ronjon]

Could be where those storms are firing. Or the COC could still be broad and elongated. The key is the building heavy convection, the low shear, and slow speed. All ingredients for it to slowly organize.

[srainhoutx]

Two atmospheric features that have been missing are a somewhat more favorable MJO and a CCKW. Both of those atmospheric features are moving E into the Caribbean Sea from the EPAC this morning and we are seeing general rising air with instability begin to increase across the Western Atlantic Basin.

[Agua]

Could be where those storms are firing. Or the COC could still be broad and elongated. The key is the building heavy convection, the low shear, and slow speed. All ingredients for it to slowly organize.

It's elongated, and I'm not certain that it is completely closed off, but if it isn't it may be by the time this comment is posted.

[GeneratorPower]

Here's an animated GIF of that area.

[img ]http://i.imgur.com/6Ap9iHv.gif[/img]

No doubt that is a true LLC and not an eddy imho.

Sheesh that's amazing. Very different from an eddy.