ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Frank2]

The IR looks more formidable, but the WV shows the true story - convection still more in a line than anything else:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[trave2]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/tbw/mflash-vis.html

That naked LLC that moved off in front of 99L just moved off the coast of Tampa.

[RL3AO]

First time in a while that we're seeing convection to the west of the center. At least that might help with some pressure falls ahead of the low.

[Javlin]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/tbw/mflash-vis.html

That naked LLC that moved off in front of 99L just moved off the coast of Tampa.

Good catch

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/769581597410689024

[Frank2]

A bit small but here is a good view of 99 as it moves W into Cuba (looks like just in time too - a bit of a center is seen)

https://www.wunderground.com/cu/havana

[northjaxpro]

There was also a smaller ULL imparting shear on 91L as well to the northwest to that system yesterday as well. The shear from that smaller ULL has slackemed today as 91L has definitely become defined since last night. 91L is now not being influenced as much by the larger ULL. 91L is now pulling away from the larger ULL to its southeast. But, the larger ULL could indeed get close enough to 99L to hinder development. We will see.

[Dean4Storms]

12z GEM closes this off right away and takes it to Appalachicola as a 984mb Storm.

[wxman57]

Still no well-defined "center". More squalls than we've seen in a while.

[cycloneye]

Sunday afternoon is the next flight but if necessary.

Code: Select all

SUSPECT AREA (STRAITS OF FLORIDA)
       FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 43           FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 43
       A. 28/1800Z                    A. 29/0530Z, 1130Z
       B. NOAA3 05EEA INVEST          B. NOAA3 0608A CYCLONE
       C. 28/1700Z                    C. 29/0430Z
       D. 24.3N 80.7W                 D. 25.0N 83.0W
       E. 28/1730Z TO 28/2230Z        E. 29/0500Z TO 29/1130Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT            F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

[HurriGuy]

It almost looks like to me a mid-level spin is coming out of the convection to the southeast.

Levi mentioned this in his video TODAY that it would take awhile but it really looks like more vorticity is coming out of it

[HurriGuy]

Levi also made a great point that the already established cloud deck over Cuba could lessen the storms caused by the sun heating the Island throughout the day.

[RL3AO]

When you look at the direction of movement from the upper-level cirrus clouds, we're starting to see more evidence of a divergent pattern aloft. Maybe about 48 more hours of this environment and it might be able to develop.

[La Breeze]

There was also a smaller ULL imparting shear on 91L as well to the northwest to that system yesterday as well. The shear from that smaller ULL has slackemed today as 91L has definitely become defined since last night. 91L is now not being influenced as much by the larger ULL. 91L is now pulling away from the larger ULL to its southeast. But, the larger ULL could indeed get close enough to 99L to hinder development. We will see.

Let's hope it does get close enough to hinder development.

[drezee]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

OK, now that i have that out of the way...let me get to my observations and thoughts:

I believe that we are about to see something rare today, live visible rapid scan cyclogenesis. I think that 99L is going to be named within 36 hours. Note a few things:
1. You have very high CAPEs now and two hot tower regions about to converge.
2. Shear is there, but not enough to stop development now
3. Natural surface convergence and lift are about to tke hold between FL and Cuba

I think the following is going to happen:
1. You cannot see it on the sat, but a gravity wave is heading NW toward the forming LLC near the tip of the S most tower
2. The tower will continue to grow NW almost like an outflow boundary toward the center
3. Once it gets there, a new tower should form very near the new LLC in the SE quad
4. We will see strong inflow from the W to SE into the new tower
5. It will collapse and pulse a couple of times before it fires for good
6. I believe that 99L will be classified and be at least a moderate TS in 48 hours

I typically do not post this much, but feel compelled to give my thoughts.

IT is all coming together as laid out this AM...we need recon...

[jlauderdal]

The sheer maps have obviously been pretty bad.

I would not even look at them. Focus on real-time data

Thats the spirit..keep looking at radar, sat and obs...models for entertainment..fotget about tomorrow..its now until midnite for 99l

[HurriGuy]

48 hours bumped up to 30% -NHC

[ObsessedMiami]

IT is all coming together as laid out this AM...we need recon...

Per NHC recon scheduled for today has been cancelled as of 2:00 pm update

[Steve]

Will that ULL make its way to 99L? It look pretty potent on Water Vapor. Shear about to increase?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-wv.html

Yeah it is probably going to come to save the day as has been the case in every storm in recent years. ULLs seem to pop up at random recently in the Atlantic and unless it dies out (unlikely it seems) this system will feel its effects.

I could be wrong (don't think so), but an upper level low in the NE quadrant is in an upward motion quadrant. It can shear (NW-SW), but it's often likely to ventilate. I'm not saying this will or won't. I already said I have no idea what 99L is going to do, and I still don't.

[Dean4Storms]

Very suspicious rotation near 23N 77W..... I know this is further East, but a sound rotation nevertheless.

Speed up and Zoom.....

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20160827&endtime=latest&nframes=100&band=1&res=1&aniwidth=1000&aniheight=1600