ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[StormHunter72]

Levi Rules No longer worried.

[La Sirena]

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-77.99,19.32,3000/loc=-44.269,43.615

I love watching these maps....not sure they're helpful lol.

[RL3AO]

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-77.99,19.32,3000/loc=-44.269,43.615

I love watching these maps....not sure they're helpful lol.

It's a cool website but be careful about interpreting too much. A streamline isn't a trajectory.

[StormTracker]

Very suspicious rotation near 23N 77W..... I know this is further East, but a sound rotation nevertheless.

Speed up and Zoom.....

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20160827&endtime=latest&nframes=100&band=1&res=1&aniwidth=1000&aniheight=1600

Was just looking at that too...

[StormHunter72]

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-77.99,19.32,3000/loc=-44.269,43.615

I love watching these maps....not sure they're helpful lol.

It's a cool website but be careful about interpreting too much. A streamline isn't a trajectory.

shear from the north

[Aric Dunn]

morning all... everyone having fun ?

[RL3AO]

morning all... everyone having fun ?

Party is slowing down. Everyone getting cleaned up and trying to get rid of the hangover before the party starts again in the African wave thread.

[Dave C]

yep, 160 pages of fun

[jlauderdal]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

OK, now that i have that out of the way...let me get to my observations and thoughts:

I believe that we are about to see something rare today, live visible rapid scan cyclogenesis. I think that 99L is going to be named within 36 hours. Note a few things:
1. You have very high CAPEs now and two hot tower regions about to converge.
2. Shear is there, but not enough to stop development now
3. Natural surface convergence and lift are about to tke hold between FL and Cuba

I think the following is going to happen:
1. You cannot see it on the sat, but a gravity wave is heading NW toward the forming LLC near the tip of the S most tower
2. The tower will continue to grow NW almost like an outflow boundary toward the center
3. Once it gets there, a new tower should form very near the new LLC in the SE quad
4. We will see strong inflow from the W to SE into the new tower
5. It will collapse and pulse a couple of times before it fires for good
6. I believe that 99L will be classified and be at least a moderate TS in 48 hours

I typically do not post this much, but feel compelled to give my thoughts.

IT is all coming together as laid out this AM...we need recon...

request denied...continue staring at sat loops

[Nimbus]

Levi Rules No longer worried.

I guess you mean his comment about the slow development which means South Florida doesn't have to worry about it bombing in the Florida straits?

[centuryv58]

Levi Rules No longer worried.

I guess you mean his comment about the slow development which means South Florida doesn't have to worry about it bombing in the Florida straits?

Unless you count the recurve back into FL in a few days...

[bamajammer4eva]

Looks like NHC said they'd rather just watch loops today too

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/769597391209009152

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like NHC said they'd rather just watch loops today too

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/769597391209009152

well at least we have obs today. between cuba a everything. wont need recon as much

[jlauderdal]

Looks like NHC said they'd rather just watch loops today too

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/769597391209009152

it shows signs of life today but its good to see the govt thinking about taxpayer dollars,

[psyclone]

Looks like more of the same to me (not much)...the NHC gives it 30% over the next 48...which means 70% of nada. Their odds seem plenty generous and the decision to scrap recon looks good too. time to hit the beach and enjoy some clear, calm 89 degree water.

[tolakram]

Euro is developing this again in the gulf. Run to run consistency is about zero but it is an interesting change of events.

[Dean4Storms]

Wow....12z ECM back to development out in central Gulf.....126hr @ 994mb

[NDG]

[HurriGuy]

ECMWF--SURPRISE!!!

[Spirit29]

Just IMO, I think we've been giving the models a bit too much credit. 99L is finally something a little bit more than a messy mass of storms and now that it is organizing the models would seem to have something more to grasp onto. Am I way off base here?