Tropical Wave about to emerge West Africa (Is Invest 92L)

[SFLcane]

Yikes! Um that 500mb me don't like.

[Siker]

Check out that ridge:

[img]http://i.imgur.com/CbUqjGc.png[img]

I'm extremely new to watching this stuff, but is that ridge the reason it's moving west (well, west-ish) instead of running straight up the coast?

Yes, tropical cyclones do not want to move into ridges, especially not a ridge as strong as that one.

[RL3AO]

Check out that ridge:

[ img]http://i.imgur.com/CbUqjGc.png[/img]

I'm extremely new to watching this stuff, but is that ridge the reason it's moving west (well, west-ish) instead of running straight up the coast?

Yes. What's fascinating about the 12Z GFS is how well timed the "handoff" from one ridge (over the central Atlantic) to the one over the eastern United States is. That's what is allowing a storm in the model to go from Africa to Florida without recurving. That's a worrying pattern set-up.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Get Florida Soon =GFS it's back

[LarryWx]

Has a similar path to the Palm Beach hurricane of I can't remember the year

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

I thought of the 1928 Okeechobee hurricane:

Yes, this 12Z GFS track is most similar to the '28 H with the main diff being that it crossed
S of the CV's at 13.6N. The 12Z GFS, while further S than the 6Z, is still just above the CV's near 17.5 then. Only one storm on record since 1851 was that far N & made it past 75W. That was the vicious 1893 H. The rest crossed by the CV's at 15N & lower. Based on climo, alone, I'm guessing this will be crossing by the CV's further and further S in later runs but we'll see.
Note that both 1893 & 1928 initially moved WSW as a TC in the far E ATL. That is rather common with storms that made it past 75W.

[TheStormExpert]

I'd be surprised if this was not mentioned by the NHC in their 2pm TWO as it will be coming off Africa late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

[KWT]

When could this system get invested. Could it happen over Africa if it looks good enough?

[Hurricaneman]

When could this system get invested. Could it happen over Africa if it looks good enough?

probably right after it leaves Africa

[cycloneye]

Here it is.

A tropical wave is expected to move offshore of the west coast of
Africa on Tuesday. Conditions appear favorable for development of
this system later next week while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Gustywind]

A tropical wave is expected to move offshore of the west coast of
Africa on Tuesday. Conditions appear favorable for development of
this system later next week while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Here we are... our new guest to follow.

[RL3AO]

The real question is will it be the vaunted "I" storm. Need one of 99 or 91L to develop.

[cycloneye]

[jason1912]

It's happening.

[SouthFLTropics]

Get Florida Soon =GFS it's back

I can't even begin to take any model seriously at this point after what has happened with 99L. The Atlantic Basin continues to confuse and confound the models and experts. It makes for excellent entertainment and drama on S2K though.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Euro has this emerging from Africa at hour 72 1 degree further S than the run from 24 hours ago and vs the 12Z GFS.

Edit: Based on 120 hour map, it looks to me like this will go further west and stay further south than the prior runs for the same timeframe. Watch out Luis and others for this run!

[cycloneye]

Westbound at 144 hours.

[SFLcane]

Father S um that's way up there at that lattitude it's bound for a recurve sooner rather then later. At this point I don't buy the GFS. But it's something to watch I guess

[floridasun78]

one model got it as strong hurr after sep 5 by leewards islands

[cycloneye]

Stronger and westbound at 168 hours.

[LarryWx]

The modeling of 99L may have more effect on this than recent runs as we go further in this run because it is much stronger. Be wary of this as 99L has been very poorly modeled.