ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurriGuy]

This system is evolving fast.

I just don't know if a new mid-level vorticity is forming.

Sure does appear on visible.

[wxman57]

I could be wrong (don't think so), but an upper level low in the NE quadrant is in an upward motion quadrant. It can shear (NW-SW), but it's often likely to ventilate. I'm not saying this will or won't. I already said I have no idea what 99L is going to do, and I still don't.

That upper-level low is mostly responsible for the flare-up in squalls associated with 99L today. It's also producing some quite significant westerly wind shear across the disturbance. Once the disturbance passes the axis of the upper low/trof, convection should diminish. No development today or tomorrow, most likely.

[Aric Dunn]

on a side note we have a pretty well defined low to mid level circ.. if there is anything near the surface remains to be seen.

[Frank P]

Actually in the last few frames of this rapid scan vis loop the dominate feature of the area is the convection building over land in Cuba...

https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/ind ... height=550

[Rail Dawg]

Just landed in Punta Cana, DR after flying the jet from Houston to here.

There is a LOT of energy out in this system. We encountered T-storms to FL450 from the Florida straits on with a solid wall of boomers the last 2 hours of flight. Near the almost-LLC it was solid thunderstorms with caps at the Trop.

I haven't looked at the satellite data yet I just wanted to post a direct observation. But I did see the shear being discussed up close.

Again this system may be on the ropes but after seeing that much energy being released I wouldn't write the obituary quite yet on 99L.

Chuck

[wxman57]

ECMWF--SURPRISE!!!

It's just trying to trick you again.

[HurriGuy]

ECMWF--SURPRISE!!!

It's just trying to trick you again.

Lol...yeah I am not buying it.

[Steve]

I could be wrong (don't think so), but an upper level low in the NE quadrant is in an upward motion quadrant. It can shear (NW-SW), but it's often likely to ventilate. I'm not saying this will or won't. I already said I have no idea what 99L is going to do, and I still don't.

That upper-level low is mostly responsible for the flare-up in squalls associated with 99L today. It's also producing some quite significant westerly wind shear across the disturbance. Once the disturbance passes the axis of the upper low/trof, convection should diminish. No development today or tomorrow, most likely.

Thanks. That's sort of what I was guessing without saying anything. Levi had mentioned the area of lift (divergence?) it would be migrating into. So maybe some early organization/consolidation first 24 hours but development possible starting Monday.

[W8NC4TX]

ECMWF--SURPRISE!!!

It's just trying to trick you again.

Do we need to get out our secret decoder rings to decipher this message? What do you mean trick us? How?

[HurriGuy]

Yeah clearly no development today as most of the convection is slipping south.

It will have to make its run over the Gulf

[Aric Dunn]

I could be wrong (don't think so), but an upper level low in the NE quadrant is in an upward motion quadrant. It can shear (NW-SW), but it's often likely to ventilate. I'm not saying this will or won't. I already said I have no idea what 99L is going to do, and I still don't.

That upper-level low is mostly responsible for the flare-up in squalls associated with 99L today. It's also producing some quite significant westerly wind shear across the disturbance. Once the disturbance passes the axis of the upper low/trof, convection should diminish. No development today or tomorrow, most likely.

Thanks. That's sort of what I was guessing without saying anything. Levi had mentioned the area of lift (divergence?) it would be migrating into. So maybe some early organization/consolidation first 24 hours but development possible starting Monday.

Always have to remember that in a lot of cases shear will help get and keep convection going until a surface circ can develop and then if it moves into a better environment it would have a chance.. I can think of many many times this has happened.. shear can be helpful in a short term genesis sense

[TimeZone]

Chances of development IMO are pretty darn close to 0% for the next 48hrs. and not much higher for the next 5 days.

If anyone wants to track a tropical cyclone threatening the U.S. look all the way out into the East-Central Pacific where you might find not 1 but 2 TC's threaten or strike Hawaii just days apart.

Despite the El Niño being long gone we continue to see a struggling Atlantic and an impressive East-Central Pacific season.

The active era is long gone in the Atlantic. That's what this Season has taught me.

No offense, but LMAO Time. G Storm in August? 2 systems that might have gone (1, 99L, may still) but 1 of them was 100 miles inland and caused 160,000 homes to flood? It's far from dead. Are you suggesting 2016 will have less than 11 named storms? I realize there are active years in cooler AMO periods (which we are NOT in at this point) just as there are slower years in the active cycles. IMHO, don't be so quick to pronounce "A", "B", or "C" as if it is fact, particularly when it's not.

The Atlantic may be producing sheared, sloppy systems but to me it's quite clear we are long out of the active era. Stop looking at the letters in front of our Systems and start looking at the "quality" storms we've had the past few years as well as ACE values and you'll quickly see why I've come to this conclusion. We've had very few quality systems the past few years, and this year is no different.

[jlauderdal]

Just landed in Punta Cana, DR after flying the jet from Houston to here.

There is a LOT of energy out in this system. We encountered T-storms to FL450 from the Florida straits on with a solid wall of boomers the last 2 hours of flight. Near the almost-LLC it was solid thunderstorms with caps at the Trop.

I haven't looked at the satellite data yet I just wanted to post a direct observation. But I did see the shear being discussed up close.

Again this system may be on the ropes but after seeing that much energy being released I wouldn't write the obituary quite yet on 99L.

Chuck

What did you observe at 800ft?
Anything resembling an LLC?

[HeeBGBz]

Would five days churning in the Gulf increase storm surge? Katrina only took about two days in the Gulf, didn't it?

[SapphireSea]

Just landed in Punta Cana, DR after flying the jet from Houston to here.

There is a LOT of energy out in this system. We encountered T-storms to FL450 from the Florida straits on with a solid wall of boomers the last hour of flight.

I haven't looked at the satellite data yet I just wanted to post a direct observation. But I did see the shear being discussed up close.

Again this system may be on the ropes but after seeing that much energy being released I wouldn't write the obituary quite yet on 99L.

Chuck

All mostly induced by low convergence and shear. Once things relax it would have to start from square one. I'd say 0/20 percent. The swirl that's observed in mid cloud deck is on its way to cross over Cuba

[bella_may]

This thing is really blowing up today. They need to get hurricane hunters out there asap

[Aric Dunn]

So all flights today have been canceled again ?

[wxman57]

ECMWF--SURPRISE!!!

It's just trying to trick you again.

Do we need to get out our secret decoder rings to decipher this message? What do you mean trick us? How?

The European model slows it WAY down in the east-central Gulf then turns it north and into Pensacola next SATURDAY as a Cat 3-4 (956.8mb). Question is - do we believe it THIS time? Or do we wait for the 00Z run when it doesn't develop it at all?

[tolakram]

The Atlantic may be producing sheared, sloppy systems but to me it's quite clear we are long out of the active era. Stop looking at the letters in front of our Systems and start looking at the "quality" storms we've had the past few years as well as ACE values and you'll quickly see why I've come to this conclusion. We've had very few quality systems the past few years, and this year is no different.

Do you have a graphic of ACE for the last 20 years or so, compared to normal? A few years does not equal a trend. We also have a thread for this in Talking Tropics, you're welcome to discuss your ideas there.

[wxman57]

This thing is really blowing up today. They need to get hurricane hunters out there asap

Nah, hurricane hunters would not find any closed circulation. It's the interaction with that upper low that is causing squalls to flare up. Wind shear is way too strong for a well-defined surface circulation to form.