ATL: HERMINE - Models

[hurrtracker79]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/769604736094003200

[stormlover2013]

Headed towards western gulf coast then looks like ridge builds in over Texas to push it ne

[Dean4Storms]

LF P'Cola at 957mb! Holy Crap!

[tolakram]

Looks like landfall is 962mb @ 168 hours

I don't believe it for a second, but certainly 99L is going to keep our attention for another week.

[tolakram]

Saved animation of the 12Z run

[tolakram]

[bamajammer4eva]

UKMET, Canadian, Euro, Navy, JMA all show development

GFS nada but has been most correct so far

[deltadog03]

Lmao. I don't know what to think anymore.

[Frank P]

The last half of the Euro run reminds me of Opal... instead of coming from the BOC.... pffffft

[Steve]

The way the euro shows that setup, it can only stall or move N to maybe NNE. It can't go West with that ridge in East TX unless it was much farther South. And it can't go East because of the high building back into the SE US unless it was already farther north. Obviously things will be different than what it's showing so I'm just commenting on the run itself.

[Hammy]

UKMET, Canadian, Euro, Navy, JMA all show development

GFS nada but has been most correct so far

Remember this is the same model that was taking this to a Cat 5 on several runs and was consistently developing it into a hurricane within 48-72 hours while it was east of the Antilles.

[Dean4Storms]

ECM is closing off 99L within 48 hrs.

[stormlover2013]

Lol these models, if euro was right then it would be all about timing with that ridge building in Texas because if it didn't build in then sw la/ upper Texas coast would be the target man o man I wanted to sleep tonight lol

[SolarBear73]

SolarBear73 wrote:
Amateur here, not a met.
I've been following 99l for three days via this site and am thorough grateful for the variety of perspectives and discussion on its development.
If there's one thing I've learned its that the models are untrustworthy since 99l hasn't really fully developed as even a ts yet. Am I wrong? The latest model runs are particularly scary to me. I live in the Florida panhandle, near Destin.
Are the models any more accurate now than they were 3 days ago? Given the state of 99l's development (not a ts), it seems that our best information is available through live sat and recon. I'm not dismissing the models entirely. They've been all over the place and I wonder when or at what stage they become more relevant to this storm.

[ronjon]

Will NHC now up there development chances next update?

[SolarBear73]

How often or at what times do the new GFS and EURO models run?

[gatorcane]

I see the ECMWF and UKMET are back at it with this invest. 12Z UKMET below:

[WeatherEmperor]

UKMET, Canadian, Euro, Navy, JMA all show development

GFS nada but has been most correct so far

Remember this is the same model that was taking this to a Cat 5 on several runs and was consistently developing it into a hurricane within 48-72 hours while it was east of the Antilles.

Yes but then it locked in on no development since those handfull of runs showing a hurricane...and its been right ever since.

The other models kept flip flopping between development and no development for many days. While it hasnt been perfect, the Gfs has been more consistent than the other models hands down


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

[gatorcane]

The GFS actually shows a good upper-level environment in the Gulf for 99L, unlike what it was showing for 99L in the Bahamas. Only thing I notice with the GFS is that it has dry air over the NE Gulf that looks to inhibit development.

[SunnyThoughts]

So we have pretty much come full circle with the models from a few days ago lol I think the same ones were developing this system like 4 days ago and the gfs wasn't. Amazing. Very interesting to see how all this plays out for sure.