Tropical Wave about to emerge West Africa (Is Invest 92L)

[AutoPenalti]

That ridge has been mighty strong for the past week. I see a W track to WNW track right when it arrives to the Greater Antilles.

[cycloneye]

192 hours.Stronger and West to Westnorthwest.

[LarryWx]

I'm taking these last maps for Pouch 25L with an extra grain of salt due to the modeling of 99L, which is a major H in this run and hard to take seriously right now. That has got to have major downstream implications on steering features for 25L.

[cycloneye]

Westnorthwest at 216 hours.

[cycloneye]

Northwest at end of run.

[gatorcane]

Seems the ECMWF doesn't build back the ridge over the Eastern CONUS / W Atlantic due to 99L developing it punching through it. All long-range and subject to large error. 500MMB maps of GFS and ECMWF below for comparison:

[TheStormExpert]

I'd raise the BS flag on this run.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/769609014581858304

[LarryWx]

Major changes in track toward the end due imo to having a very strong and slower 99L, which is more than likely overdone, on this run being that it is such a drastic change.

[SFLcane]

There is your recurve lol another Ike situation yea right. That was a very rare event. Like I said at that latitude odds are you'll be scooped up.

[LarryWx]

There is your recurve lol another Ike situation yea right. That was a very rare event. Like I said at that latitude odds are you'll be scooped up.

Agreed based on over 150 years of tracks, especially IF it really does cross the CV longitude at 17 N+. However, that's still 4 days out and we should watch model trends to see if it ends up crossing the CV's instead of going by to the north. The 12Z trend was a little south. Also, there's more than the amount of question about the 12Z Euro run due to its sudden slowing and strengthening of 99L to a major vs its recent runs. That weakens E US ridging vs prior run/12Z GFS.

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET is basically due west for the next week:

[SoupBone]

Seems the ECMWF doesn't build back the ridge over the Eastern CONUS / W Atlantic due to 99L developing it punching through it. All long-range and subject to large error. 500MMB maps of GFS and ECMWF below for comparison:

That wouldn't be a bad setup for weather watchers/storm enthusiasts as it would likely be a strong system but out to sea.

[gatorcane]

Wow there is a lot of rotation with this wave. I can see why the globals are jumping on this one. Link to Africa satellite loop below:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

[TheStormExpert]

Already looks more decent than 99L.

[MetroMike]

Already looks more decent than 99L.

Thats not saying much.lol

[LarryWx]

Wow there is a lot of rotation with this wave. I can see why the globals are jumping on this one. Link to Africa satellite loop below:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

Gator,
Nice loop. Would you please tell me the approx Lat/long of where you're saying is Pouch 25L? TIA

[RL3AO]

There is your recurve lol another Ike situation yea right. That was a very rare event. Like I said at that latitude odds are you'll be scooped up.

Except it really looks like a possible setup where a storm can go from Africa and impact some western land. This is the upper air set up it happens in.

[USTropics]

Wow there is a lot of rotation with this wave. I can see why the globals are jumping on this one. Link to Africa satellite loop below:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

Gator,
Nice loop. Would you please tell me the approx Lat/long of where you're saying is Pouch 25L? TIA

[gatorcane]

Wow there is a lot of rotation with this wave. I can see why the globals are jumping on this one. Link to Africa satellite loop below:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

Gator,
Nice loop. Would you please tell me the approx Lat/long of where you're saying is Pouch 25L? TIA

Looks like around 11N, 1E, a little right of 0 degree longitude. This map confirms