ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Frank P]

It looked better earlier this morning than it does now.. as IR showing some of the cloud tops starting to cool off within the western convection of 99.... my opinion...

[wxman57]

The Atlantic may be producing sheared, sloppy systems but to me it's quite clear we are long out of the active era. Stop looking at the letters in front of our Systems and start looking at the "quality" storms we've had the past few years as well as ACE values and you'll quickly see why I've come to this conclusion. We've had very few quality systems the past few years, and this year is no different.

Do you have a graphic of ACE for the last 20 years or so, compared to normal? A few years does not equal a trend. We also have a thread for this in Talking Tropics, you're welcome to discuss your ideas there.

See Ryan Maue's page for graphic:
http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php

[Frank P]

It's just trying to trick you again.

Do we need to get out our secret decoder rings to decipher this message? What do you mean trick us? How?

The European model slows it WAY down in the east-central Gulf then turns it north and into Pensacola next SATURDAY as a Cat 3-4 (956.8mb). Question is - do we believe it THIS time? Or do we wait for the 00Z run when it doesn't develop it at all?

Based on how the models have preformed to date I for one do not believe it... its just more of the hurry up and wait game...

[W8NC4TX]

It's just trying to trick you again.

Do we need to get out our secret decoder rings to decipher this message? What do you mean trick us? How?

The European model slows it WAY down in the east-central Gulf then turns it north and into Pensacola next SATURDAY as a Cat 3-4 (956.8mb). Question is - do we believe it THIS time? Or do we wait for the 00Z run when it doesn't develop it at all?

Oh, I see.. yikes! Thanks for the clarification!

[LarryWx]

Another example of the Euro's tendency to often overstrengthen a storm N of 25N?

[SolarBear73]

Amateur here, not a met.
I've been following 99l for three days via this site and am thorough grateful for the variety of perspectives and discussion on its development.
If there's one thing I've learned its that the models are untrustworthy since 99l hasn't really fully developed as even a ts yet. Am I wrong? The latest model runs are particularly scary to me. I live in the Florida panhandle, near Destin.
Are the models any more accurate now than they were 3 days ago? Given the state of 99l's development (not a ts), it seems that our best information is available through live sat and recon. I'm not dismissing the models entirely. They've been all over the place and I wonder when or at what stage they become more relevant to this storm.

[stormhunter7]

Think 99L is about to become a system in next 12 hours. Mid level center is taking over i think and it will help low level center form, imo.

[Hammy]

This kind of reminds me of Barry in 2001 which had a decent mid-level circulation as it entered the Straits, but didn't form until it got into the GoM as it interacted with an upper low--is that sort of setup plausible this go should this actually form at all?

[SapphireSea]

Amateur here, not a met.
I've been following 99l for three days via this site and am thorough grateful for the variety of perspectives and discussion on its development.
If there's one thing I've learned its that the models are untrustworthy since 99l hasn't really fully developed as even a ts yet. Am I wrong? The latest model runs are particularly scary to me. I live in the Florida panhandle, near Destin.
Are the models any more accurate now than they were 3 days ago? Given the state of 99l's development (not a ts), it seems that our best information is available through live sat and recon. I'm not dismissing the models entirely. They've been all over the place and I wonder when or at what stage they become more relevant to this storm.

Models are best within 72 hours. Intensity is still a challenge despite improvements. And expect less confidence when there is no defined tropical center. Trust the guidance and add deviation towards the extrap direction for two day estimate. Look at 5 day upper pattern to see if it swaps to a progressive pattern.

Likely case that thus far there is a bit of a right bias. Models not to be trusted past 72.

[Steve]

The active era is long gone in the Atlantic. That's what this Season has taught me.

No offense, but LMAO Time. G Storm in August? 2 systems that might have gone (1, 99L, may still) but 1 of them was 100 miles inland and caused 160,000 homes to flood? It's far from dead. Are you suggesting 2016 will have less than 11 named storms? I realize there are active years in cooler AMO periods (which we are NOT in at this point) just as there are slower years in the active cycles. IMHO, don't be so quick to pronounce "A", "B", or "C" as if it is fact, particularly when it's not.

The Atlantic may be producing sheared, sloppy systems but to me it's quite clear we are long out of the active era. Stop looking at the letters in front of our Systems and start looking at the "quality" storms we've had the past few years as well as ACE values and you'll quickly see why I've come to this conclusion. We've had very few quality systems the past few years, and this year is no different.

May or may not be a function of other factors than the Atlantic multi Decadal cycle though. We are coming out of a strong El Niño in 2015 and 2013 was sort of an anomaly for the cycle. I think next year is more of a tell year, but we aren't in a negative AMO yet. And unless the cycle just switches out quick, we haven't gotten to the theorized mature era of the +AMO some have suggested would lead to several East Coast hits before heading back into a slower era. You could be right, but I'm not sold just based on general atmospheric indicators. But even in the last slower era, there were big years.

Edit to apologize for going off topic.

[NDG]

Ships' reports in the area.

[Hammy]

Based on the ship reports is this starting to actually close off? I've noticed a nice west to east inflow tail on satellite north of Cuba over the last few hours and wonder if the terrain could be aiding in closing the circulation to the south in a similar fashion to some BoC storms.

[SapphireSea]

Ships' reports in the area.

Looks like the invest is a big fat Nada right now. Still needs more time, which is running out of. Warming cloud tops. Convective collapse imminent and on schedule.

[bamajammer4eva]

Sea-breeze thunderstorms really blowing up over land in Cuba could hinder 99Ls attempt at organization it would look like considering how close they are.

[NDG]

18z Best Track position, I agree, the low level vorticity is still ahead of the ML vorticity.

[TimeZone]

http://i.giphy.com/3o6Zt6rUrcLlQQYEjC.gif

Think 99L is about to become a system in next 12 hours. Mid level center is taking over i think and it will help low level center form, imo.

Majority of the convection is moving too far S over Cuba, and it's beginning to take on a "squashed" like appearance. I wouldn't expect development(if any) until it gets into the GOM.

[Aric Dunn]

18z Best Track position, I agree, the low level vorticity is still ahead of the ML vorticity.

not too far off and the best track is that best track.. wont know for certain without direct obs. but if the mid level does work down it would be following the hwrf in terms of genesis.

[StormHunter72]

I learned a lot today here.

[wxman57]

Definitely no development today. Convection is dying off and outflow boundaries are moving out from the former squalls. I don't expect the disturbance to look any better over the next 2 days.

[SouthDadeFish]

For the mid-level circulation to work its way down it would need to fire strong, sustained convection in that region, but instead it looks like convection is weakening.... again. The diurnal thunderstorms over Cuba look more impressive at this point. I'm guessing we will likely see another flareup overnight. Best chances for development are once it gets into the Gulf if shear can relax a bit.