ATL: HERMINE - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
12Z Euro did not ramp this up until after 96 hours. Right now both runs are still very similar.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
PTrackerLA wrote:So far it's in very good agreement with the Euro at 48 hrs.
PTrackerLA, do you think we're in for this system here in our area, and if so, when in your opinion? I'm in Vermilion Parish - still trying to dry out.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
(Edit: sorry for some reason it loses it at 78 at wxbell on mslp)
Last edited by windnrain on Sat Aug 27, 2016 4:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Look how impressive 500mb vorticity is at 84hrs compared to last several runs. This is much more organized probably close to TS status here.


Last edited by PTrackerLA on Sat Aug 27, 2016 4:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
PTrackerLA wrote:Look how impressive 500mb vorticity is at 84hrs compared to last several runs. This is much more organized probably close to TS status here.
Heading...?
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Not a professional forecast by any means.
Audrey'57, Hilda'64, Betsy '65, Edith'71, Carmen'74, Danny'85, Juan'85, Andrew'92, Iniki'92 (while on vacation in Kauai), Lili'02, Rita'05, Humberto'07, Gustav'08, Ike'08, Isaac'12, Monsoonal Depression'16, Harvey'17, Barry'19, Laura'20, Delta'20, Ida'21.
Audrey'57, Hilda'64, Betsy '65, Edith'71, Carmen'74, Danny'85, Juan'85, Andrew'92, Iniki'92 (while on vacation in Kauai), Lili'02, Rita'05, Humberto'07, Gustav'08, Ike'08, Isaac'12, Monsoonal Depression'16, Harvey'17, Barry'19, Laura'20, Delta'20, Ida'21.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
tolakram wrote:12Z Euro did not ramp this up until after 96 hours. Right now both runs are still very similar.
Euro had a TS @ 96hr compared to a depression for the GFS. But at least there's some consensus.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Heading north, still not deepening.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Looks like it's beginning to ramp up @ hour 102:


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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
windnrain wrote:Spinning in the NE GOM barely moving.
Yet not deepening. If conditions could become favorable, this could become a serious problem since it's moving so slow (allowing the system more time to develop).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
windnrain wrote:Spinning in the NE GOM barely moving.
Trapped between the high and the ridge??

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Looks more like a TC on the 18Z GFS looking at simulate IR, though still on the weak side.
Sharp turn east at 120 hours
Sharp turn east at 120 hours
Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

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- Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models
Very weak through hour 120. Despite keeping it weak, this GFS run is very telling that 99l must be monitored despite its struggles.
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