ATL: HERMINE - Models

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tolakram
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3401 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:13 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3402 Postby windnrain » Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:13 pm

Strengthening at 126 into Talahassee area.
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stormlover2013

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3403 Postby stormlover2013 » Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:14 pm

This is going to be about timing with the ridge in Texas is that builds in or if it doesn't lol should be a fun ride to watch
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3404 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:15 pm

Animation of the run so far.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3405 Postby bella_may » Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:15 pm

Seems the last few models have trended west a little bit. Or am I wrong?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3406 Postby stormwise » Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:15 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3407 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:16 pm

So the 18Z is a little stronger and has a path more like the 12Z Euro. Huge change from the last run and no consistency again.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3408 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:19 pm

GFS 120h last 6 runs.

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GFS 48h last 6 runs
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3409 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:20 pm

Can't help but feel threatened...I live in Tampa. Something in my gut says They will shift back to us. Awaiting next run...but we are running out of time models won't shift much more they are getting accurate...I expect classification
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3410 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:38 pm

Well, the Hwrf is running...lets see which ( if any) location it wants to wipe off the map this time. (Please notice the sarcasm) http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3411 Postby USTropics » Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:58 pm

The 18z GFS keeps 99L around for the next 12 days. After moving towards the CGOM, it heads northeast and makes first landfall along the panhandle of FL, moves offshore near NE FL, does a cyclonic loop and moves back ashore, then heads down the GOM coastline. Entire loop in 24 hour increments below:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3412 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Sat Aug 27, 2016 6:15 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:Well, the Hwrf is running...lets see which ( if any) location it wants to wipe off the map this time. (Please notice the sarcasm) http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0



A tad west..None of these models form anything in the next 24 hours
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3413 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 27, 2016 6:16 pm

LOL at the GFS. That's crazy.

At 72 hours, HWRF is slightly north and slightly west of the last run. 26.1/84.2 vs. 25.5/83.6 and it's only down to 979 from 960.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3414 Postby ronjon » Sat Aug 27, 2016 6:21 pm

Yeah but HWRF strengthening at 72 hrs and looks like landfall big bend/cedar key this run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3415 Postby ronjon » Sat Aug 27, 2016 6:30 pm

Nope was wrong...making a beeline for Clearwater at 943 mb in 96 hrs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3416 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 27, 2016 6:31 pm

It's hooking back toward Pinellas County at 943mb at 96 hours (4 days from 2:00pm EDT today). I don't buy it, but that's a beast. Obviously a ton of low lying flooding and inundation in Sarasota/Manatee/Hillsborough Counties at that point...
Last edited by Steve on Sat Aug 27, 2016 6:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3417 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 27, 2016 6:31 pm

HWRF is such a troll.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3418 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 27, 2016 6:33 pm

tolakram wrote:HWRF is such a troll.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/wIKEgwo.png[img]


It is. But also points how scary it would be if the environment was conducive.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Sat Aug 27, 2016 6:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3419 Postby Frank P » Sat Aug 27, 2016 6:33 pm

HWRF thru 96 hours is wiping out Tampa Bay with a 943mb hurricane.... :eek: :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#3420 Postby hohnywx » Sat Aug 27, 2016 6:36 pm

We know that the model is not reliable for storms that have not undergone genesis yet, but it is remarkable that it has its eyes set on the Tampa Bay region for the past three runs.
Last edited by hohnywx on Sat Aug 27, 2016 6:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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