ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
NJWxHurricane
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 145
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2016 11:51 am
Location: Seaside Heights, NJ (Jersey Shore)

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3421 Postby NJWxHurricane » Sat Aug 27, 2016 4:40 pm

Was looking at the wrong thing, forgot to refresh, LOL. My fault. Clear rotation now. Anyone see that EURO run though?
2 likes   

User avatar
SoupBone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3111
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2005 5:24 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3422 Postby SoupBone » Sat Aug 27, 2016 4:41 pm

HurriGuy wrote:
NJWxHurricane wrote:Not to sure where you are guys are seeing rotation. Not seeing anything.


I am not sure if you are joking, in the wrong thread or what...

Pretty obvious rotation on visible satellite



Just a bit of advice, but if you're going to counter someone, why not post a visual? It's easy to screen capture, throw it in paint, add an arrow to show the location, then host it on an image hosting site. When people read this, there's no substance to it. Not pointed at you, I've seen several people doing it. It helps people understand what you're discussing. :Partytime:
2 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Frank2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4061
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:47 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3423 Postby Frank2 » Sat Aug 27, 2016 4:42 pm

Might be the MLC becoming better defined, but the weak low is moving west at 10, per radar and the NHC TWO. Once it crosses into Cuba, that hopefully should halt any development...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/vis-animated.gif
Last edited by Frank2 on Sat Aug 27, 2016 4:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   

HurriGuy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 734
Joined: Thu Aug 15, 2013 8:43 pm
Location: Prairieville, LA

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3424 Postby HurriGuy » Sat Aug 27, 2016 4:42 pm

SoupBone wrote:
HurriGuy wrote:
NJWxHurricane wrote:Not to sure where you are guys are seeing rotation. Not seeing anything.


I am not sure if you are joking, in the wrong thread or what...

Pretty obvious rotation on visible satellite



Just a bit of advice, but if you're going to counter someone, why not post a visual? It's easy to screen capture, throw it in paint, add an arrow to show the location, then host it on an image hosting site. When people read this, there's no substance to it. Not pointed at you, I've seen several people doing it. It helps people understand what you're discussing. :Partytime:


I had just posted a visible satellite 2 posts above his. I didn't think I needed to do it again...

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php?action=view_animation&req_method=nframes_enddate&enddate=20160827&endtime=latest&nframes=140&band=1&res=1&aniwidth=600&aniheight=373
2 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3400
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3425 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Aug 27, 2016 4:44 pm

Last edited by tropicwatch on Sat Aug 27, 2016 7:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'

User avatar
ScottNAtlanta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2420
Joined: Sat May 25, 2013 3:11 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3426 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sat Aug 27, 2016 4:45 pm

I think the centre has relocated east as well. We'll have to see if the convection firing now gets substantial enough to fight off the shear...is this giving anyone else a headache? :double:
3 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
La Breeze
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 168
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2015 3:21 am
Location: Vermilion Parish, LA

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3427 Postby La Breeze » Sat Aug 27, 2016 4:48 pm

floridasun78 wrote:bad news for 99l upper low starting affect 99l from north http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-ir4.html

Yes!! :D
1 likes   
Not a professional forecast by any means.
Audrey'57, Hilda'64, Betsy '65, Edith'71, Carmen'74, Danny'85, Juan'85, Andrew'92, Iniki'92 (while on vacation in Kauai), Lili'02, Rita'05, Humberto'07, Gustav'08, Ike'08, Isaac'12, Monsoonal Depression'16, Harvey'17, Barry'19, Laura'20, Delta'20, Ida'21.

User avatar
ScottNAtlanta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2420
Joined: Sat May 25, 2013 3:11 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3428 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sat Aug 27, 2016 4:49 pm


It's always so amazing to watch the thunderstorms form as they bubble up through the atmosphere...almost like watching soap suds
2 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
La Breeze
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 168
Joined: Sun Jul 26, 2015 3:21 am
Location: Vermilion Parish, LA

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3429 Postby La Breeze » Sat Aug 27, 2016 4:51 pm

mpic wrote:I'm in the Houston area and they are talking about a disturbance south of New Iberia, LA so hope 99L blows out. We don't need any more water and certainly don't need it in LA

You've got that right! Please, no more water here in LA.
2 likes   
Not a professional forecast by any means.
Audrey'57, Hilda'64, Betsy '65, Edith'71, Carmen'74, Danny'85, Juan'85, Andrew'92, Iniki'92 (while on vacation in Kauai), Lili'02, Rita'05, Humberto'07, Gustav'08, Ike'08, Isaac'12, Monsoonal Depression'16, Harvey'17, Barry'19, Laura'20, Delta'20, Ida'21.

jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7203
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3430 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Aug 27, 2016 4:52 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:

It's always so amazing to watch the thunderstorms form as they bubble up through the atmosphere...almost like watching soap suds


We get this everyday in florida during the rainy season
6 likes   

User avatar
ScottNAtlanta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2420
Joined: Sat May 25, 2013 3:11 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3431 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sat Aug 27, 2016 4:54 pm

Well it looks like JB is back on board (I think he is a little too Euro-centric...If it had been the GFS I wonder if he'd be back on board)
1 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23010
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3432 Postby wxman57 » Sat Aug 27, 2016 4:54 pm

I don't think there is any evidence of an LLC beneath that mid-level rotation to the east. The low-level vorticity is well west of there approaching 80W now. Sometimes, if convection persists in the vicinity of a mid-level rotation and if the shear relaxes, an LLC can form beneath it. Problem here is the strong westerly wind shear persists, preventing that from happening. Once the mid-level center passes the favorable region of the upper-low immediately to the north then convection will likely diminish.
2 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5850
Age: 42
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3433 Postby Hammy » Sat Aug 27, 2016 4:56 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:I think the centre has relocated east as well. We'll have to see if the convection firing now gets substantial enough to fight off the shear...is this giving anyone else a headache? :double:


I know it's been driving me crazy for the last week.

I don't think the center has relocated--if you go to the NASA satellite page and watch the cloud motion (not the mid-level, but thunderstorms/low clouds) it's clearly out of the south where the convection is, so I'd estimate the vortex is very likely southwest of North Andros.
1 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3434 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:05 pm

Hammy wrote:
ScottNAtlanta wrote:I think the centre has relocated east as well. We'll have to see if the convection firing now gets substantial enough to fight off the shear...is this giving anyone else a headache? :double:


I know it's been driving me crazy for the last week.

I don't think the center has relocated--if you go to the NASA satellite page and watch the cloud motion (not the mid-level, but thunderstorms/low clouds) it's clearly out of the south where the convection is, so I'd estimate the vortex is very likely southwest of North Andros.



yeah I mean the mid level is quite ominous. but pretty sure the low level circ/vort is just south of Andros. a lot of cloud debris but it also has been moving from earlier so the ship reports from hours ago may still be valid. So the convection firing now would just on the east side of the rotation. have to wait and see
2 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2777
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3435 Postby Frank P » Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:08 pm

My two cents, rotation to the east is MLC, I see no evidence of any pronounce LLC anywhere on the sat loops, if its out there its ridiculously weak... 99l looks pretty bad now.. regardless, as long as there is rotation be it mid or low and building convection gotta watch it... rather watch a bad Saints pre season than this pfffffft ... 8-)
Last edited by Frank P on Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
3 likes   

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5343
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3436 Postby Nimbus » Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:12 pm

Just in the last hour there have been some hot towers firing S of Andros island but you can see some low level circulation headed WSW towards the location WXman57 specified. There were some outflow boundaries out in the Florida strait so that vort may be done.

The broader low level circulation looks elongated without any real sharp center yet but it may get its act together againsomewhat tomorrow morning.
1 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23693
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3437 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:17 pm

18Z GFS has a big bend of Florida hit. Not sure what it is about that area but TCs love to make landfall there
2 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3438 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:19 pm

gatorcane wrote:18Z GFS has a big bend of Florida hit. Not sure what it is about that area but TCs love to make landfall there


the big difference is it actually has a system. all the previous run there was nothing at all that looks like a decent TS.
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3439 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:20 pm

WIll be nice by tomorrow to be radar range :)
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
hriverajr
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 786
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2005 12:16 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3440 Postby hriverajr » Sat Aug 27, 2016 5:21 pm

That "center" appears just at the mid levels at this time. Also note another little mid level circulation west of Florida. The only real surface circulation albeit very weak, is right off the upper Texas coast.
1 likes   
Anything I post is my personal opinion and should not used for any type of planning or lifesaving reasons. Please refer to National Weather Service forecasts.


Return to “2016”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests