Tropical Wave about to emerge West Africa (Is Invest 92L)

[abajan]

It may be tracked internally but not put into the TWO yet. If its 0/10% it's not made public but it's tracked at NHC for verification purposes. Once it gets to 0/20% it goes into the TWO.

Thanks for that info. I didn't know that was the policy.

[USTropics]

Most likely this is the internal invest number for NHC currently for P25L:

Code: Select all

GENESIS019, AL, L, , , , , 73, 2016, DB, O, 2016082706, 9999999999, , 019, , , , GENESIS, , AL732016

[LarryWx]

Thks US & Gator. So, it is only at 11N now. That tells me that there is reason to question if it will really go to the N of the CV's, which are 15-17N, as per model consensus. Any opinions?

[KWT]

I think the models are running with the northern low on tgat analysis map. Certainly that would fit what the models are showing.

[LarryWx]

I think the models are running with the northern low on tgat analysis map. Certainly that would fit what the models are showing.

Thks! I can confirm this (example):

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... nafr_1.png

So, are the models right in running with the northern sfc low instead of the low down at 11N?

[Kazmit]

0%/30%. Pretty high chances for something that hasn't even emerged yet.

[KWT]

That is the big question. My gut would be the northern one due to the model support.

Going to be going a long way west and typically these go further west than the models first expect. I think we will have an invest quite soon.

[LarryWx]

Based on the ominous looking positioning of the upper atmosphere and position of the pouch at 18 GFS hour 234, my guess is that this run will either hit or barely miss the CONUS.

[jason1912]

[RL3AO]

The ridging looks to support the system getting at least as far west as Bermuda. I think this could be the storm of the season in terms of ace.

[SFLcane]

Already hinting at recurve bets 00z will. Pattern that it showed in 12z is special. So many many obsticals to overcome just to make the trek I sure wouldn't loose sleep over.

[WeatherEmperor]

It looks like the ridge steering it west gets weakened because the Gfs keeps 99L hanging around FL/GA for a few days. On the 12z, 99L got kicked out to see quickly after crossing Florida


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[RL3AO]

Already hinting at recurve bets 00z will. Pattern that it showed in 12z is special. So many many obsticals to overcome just to make the trek I sure wouldn't loose sleep over.

So when it doesn't recurve 330 hours out its a long range model run that'll probably change. When it does recurve 330 hours out a few hundred miles off the US coast then it's a "see its already gonna recurve"

Just wanna make sure I'm following along correctly.

[LarryWx]

Already hinting at recurve bets 00z will. Pattern that it showed in 12z is special. So many many obsticals to overcome just to make the trek I sure wouldn't loose sleep over.

So when it doesn't recurve 330 hours out its a long range model run that'll probably change. When it does recurve 330 hours out a few hundred miles off the US coast then it's a "see its already gonna recurve"

Just wanna make sure I'm following along correctly.

Actually, this run coukd very well have plowed into the NE US had it gone beyond 384.

[Siker]

Yeah that run looks to at least end up scraping New England if not ploughing right into NC / Virginia.

[MetroMike]

The 12Z CMC keeps the ridge strong, plowing it into the Caribbean then the islands.

[SFLcane]

Already hinting at recurve bets 00z will. Pattern that it showed in 12z is special. So many many obsticals to overcome just to make the trek I sure wouldn't loose sleep over.

So when it doesn't recurve 330 hours out its a long range model run that'll probably change. When it does recurve 330 hours out a few hundred miles off the US coast then it's a "see its already gonna recurve"



Just wanna make sure I'm following along correctly.

[cycloneye]

The ridging looks to support the system getting at least as far west as Bermuda. I think this could be the storm of the season in terms of ace.

We thought it would be Gaston but I agree about this one with great chance to do it.

[SFLcane]

Esentially it means all your cherries have to be in the right basket for any CV storm to threaten the US. 80 percent recurve odds are this one will to. That's what made 04 and 05 extreme anomalies in every sense. But I'll keep an eye on it just Incase

[cycloneye]

0%-40%

A tropical wave is expected to move offshore of the west coast of
Africa on Tuesday. Conditions appear favorable for development of
this system later next week while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph
over the tropical eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent