ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Still does not mean something could try to work to the surface near the MLC..

[NDG]

How things change, the Euro, CMC and HWRF may not be so crazy after all.

Time for the NHC start raising the chances for development once again on their next TWO.

[HurriGuy]

Okay..I see the weak lower level rotation now.

Thanks to those that commented

[Kingarabian]

How things change, the Euro, CMC and HWRF may not be so crazy after all.

Time for the NHC start raising the chances for development once again on their next TWO.

They'll likely sit, wait, and hope for consistency and a consensus. Because the models could just shift back to no development once again.

[Siker]

How things change, the Euro, CMC and HWRF may not be so crazy after all.

Time for the NHC start raising the chances for development once again on their next TWO.

They'll likely sit, wait, and hope for consistency and a consensus. Because the models could just shift back to no development once again.

True that they shouldn't go all in, but I'm sure they'll raise the 5 day odds by 10% in the next TWO.

[NDG]

How things change, the Euro, CMC and HWRF may not be so crazy after all.

Time for the NHC start raising the chances for development once again on their next TWO.

They'll likely sit, wait, and hope for consistency and a consensus. Because the models could just shift back to no development once again.

Yeap, there's that part that I left off lol. Knowing them yes that's what will most likely happen.

[HurricaneBelle]

18Z GFS has a big bend of Florida hit. Not sure what it is about that area but TCs love to make landfall there

The weak June systems love to make landfall there, but not too many hurricanes or storms that form in August/September. Last storm of consequence I remember hitting up there outside of early season was Gordon 2000, which weakened into a TS when it approached.

[HurriGuy]

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?type=Carribbean-vis-0-24&checked=windv&prodDim=100&overDim=100

This should greatly HELP those trying to find the lower level vorticity like I was

[caneman]

18Z GFS has a big bend of Florida hit. Not sure what it is about that area but TCs love to make landfall there

The weak June systems love to make landfall there, but not too many hurricanes or storms that form in August/September. Last storm of consequence I remember hitting up there outside of early season was Gordon 2000, which weakened into a TS when it approached.

There are actually many tropical storms that affect that region . October is another month where it gets hit alot. Hasn't been anything major. Although i believe Frances and Jeanne dealt a pretty good back door blow. Years affected since 2000: courtesy Hurricane City. 2004tsbr,
2004bdts,2006tsbr,2008tsbd,2012ts,2013ts,(2016ts not in stats)
53 times in 144yrs end of 2015

[johngaltfla]

I don't think there is any evidence of an LLC beneath that mid-level rotation to the east. The low-level vorticity is well west of there approaching 80W now. Sometimes, if convection persists in the vicinity of a mid-level rotation and if the shear relaxes, an LLC can form beneath it. Problem here is the strong westerly wind shear persists, preventing that from happening. Once the mid-level center passes the favorable region of the upper-low immediately to the north then convection will likely diminish.

Nuts. Does this mean I have to move all this food out of my basement and take the boards off my windows or can I wait until November?



Ah well, we've been getting over 1" of rain per day from the non-99L weather, so I guess I'm going to need a rowboat for work by Monday.

[SoupBone]

How things change, the Euro, CMC and HWRF may not be so crazy after all.

Time for the NHC start raising the chances for development once again on their next TWO.

Where did this come from? Am I missing the sarcasm?

[GCANE]

Wow, that really intensified. Cloud tops got real cold, real quick.

[tolakram]

How things change, the Euro, CMC and HWRF may not be so crazy after all.

Time for the NHC start raising the chances for development once again on their next TWO.

Where did this come from? Am I missing the sarcasm?

The latest Euro run is back to a hurricane, and the latest GFS is much stronger than the previous run. Not exactly a consensus but something has changed that appears to point to a more favorable environment down the road.

[caneman]

A bit off topic but since it's a bit slow, here is a great article about the so called 'grey swan' hurricane and if and when it were to hit the Tampa Bay region. Mods feel free to move if you wish. https://weather.com/safety/hurricane/ne ... anes-study

[GeneratorPower]

Seems like a repeating cycle of active convection which expands then eventually dies out. Some pretty gusty winds and heavy rain I'm sure could be expected as the system moves over land areas. You gotta wonder, too, if it could pull a surprise.

[SoupBone]

How things change, the Euro, CMC and HWRF may not be so crazy after all.

Time for the NHC start raising the chances for development once again on their next TWO.

Where did this come from? Am I missing the sarcasm?

The latest Euro run is back to a hurricane, and the latest GFS is much stronger than the previous run. Not exactly a consensus but something has changed that appears to point to a more favorable environment down the road.

Ahhh, but this has been going on for days now.

[HurricaneBelle]

18Z GFS has a big bend of Florida hit. Not sure what it is about that area but TCs love to make landfall there

The weak June systems love to make landfall there, but not too many hurricanes or storms that form in August/September. Last storm of consequence I remember hitting up there outside of early season was Gordon 2000, which weakened into a TS when it approached.

There are actually many tropical storms that affect that region . October is another month where it gets hit alot. Hasn't been anything major. Although i believe Frances and Jeanne dealt a pretty good back door blow. Years affected since 2000: courtesy Hurricane City. 2004tsbr,
2004bdts,2006tsbr,2008tsbd,2012ts,2013ts,(2016ts not in stats)
53 times in 144yrs end of 2015

I was talking about storms making landfall from the Gulf in the Big Bend a la the GFS depiction post-June. Jeanne never got into the Gulf, and Frances did after crossing the state but hit the Panhandle west of the big bend moving NW-NNW, not NE. 2006 was Alberto, 2012/2013 were Debby and Andrea while 2016 was Colin, all June storms. 2008 was Fay, which didn't come from the Gulf.

2000 Gordon remains the last post-June storm to hit directly from the Gulf into that area.

[Kingarabian]

Seems like a repeating cycle of active convection which expands then eventually dies out. Some pretty gusty winds and heavy rain I'm sure could be expected as the system moves over land areas. You gotta wonder, too, if it could pull a surprise.

Isn't most of that convection over 99L due to daytime heating?

[psyclone]

18Z GFS has a big bend of Florida hit. Not sure what it is about that area but TCs love to make landfall there

Three hurricanes struck this region within a few weeks in 1886. most of the time storms that move up there are weak but you'd think they would get canes more frequently. extremely low population but very surge prone. Dennis swamped St Marks in 2005 despite landfalling in the western panhandle. As for the GFS depiction..it's odd for a storm to hook east at this time of the year. I'm still waiting for something to actually happen with the system. I keep looking for some evidence of persistent sustained development and we just don't get it so I wouldn't worry about any model at this point. It actually reminds me of an old Seinfeld episode when George said if you condense my entire life's accomplishments into one day it looks decent..that's what we've gotten with 99L... condense the highlights into one day and it looks ok. Overall though for a system to struggle to this extent during the core of cane season may ultimately prove a feather in the cap of the slow season crowd. as always time will tell and we've got a long way to go in the season so I continue to watch with interest.

[Frank P]

Yeah and the Euro and GFS have shown very little consistency from run to run, especially as the relate to each other. Lets see some agreement consistency between the two models before we start flying the hurricane flags on the beach... on a side note, HWRF thru 96 hours is wiping out Tampa Bay with a 943mb hurricane....