ATL: HERMINE - Models

[Alyono]

not intensifying quickly due to southerly shear. The upper high is now displaced to the EAST on the MU. Yesterday, it was displaced to the west

[HurriGuy]

not intensifying quickly due to southerly shear. The upper high is now displaced to the EAST on the MU. Yesterday, it was displaced to the west

The only sheer I see is the west to east sheer caused by the approaching ULL to the north. I don't see any southerly sheer.



The GFS 00z initialization verifies this too

[Alyono]

Look at the 200mb winds when it is in the Gulf. Clear southerly and then SW shear

Canadian is MUCH weaker. 1004mb vs 996mb 12 hours ago. It also has shifted well to the SW. However, it says it should be near Miami now. It's initialization is off.

I am not convinced that even if this develops it will amount to much. May end up as Colin 2.0

[ALhurricane]

not intensifying quickly due to southerly shear. The upper high is now displaced to the EAST on the MU. Yesterday, it was displaced to the west

The models are taking being consistently inconsistent to a new level. The GFS does tuck it under the ridge Mon/Tue. I definitely think there is a window there for more development than the GFS is showing. After that, who knows since we can't get agreement on even where the upper level anticyclone will be positioned.

[HurriGuy]

Look at the 200mb winds when it is in the Gulf. Clear southerly and then SW shear

Canadian is MUCH weaker. 1004mb vs 996mb 12 hours ago. It also has shifted well to the SW. However, it says it should be near Miami now. It's initialization is off.

I am not convinced that even if this develops it will amount to much. May end up as Colin 2.0

I apologize. It sounded as if you were speaking of now. I did not realize you were looking at the entire 00z GFS run

[HurriGuy]

not intensifying quickly due to southerly shear. The upper high is now displaced to the EAST on the MU. Yesterday, it was displaced to the west

The models are taking being consistently inconsistent to a new level. The GFS does tuck it under the ridge Mon/Tue. I definitely think there is a window there for more development than the GFS is showing. After that, who knows since we can't get agreement on even where the upper level anticyclone will be positioned.

And even then it will really depend where the circulation is under the upper high. A couple hundred miles to the south or west will make all the difference in the world

[Alyono]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 24.3N 83.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2016 36 24.0N 83.7W 1006 23
0000UTC 30.08.2016 48 24.5N 85.1W 1004 24
1200UTC 30.08.2016 60 24.8N 86.0W 1004 23
0000UTC 31.08.2016 72 25.2N 86.6W 1003 26
1200UTC 31.08.2016 84 25.8N 86.9W 1002 32
0000UTC 01.09.2016 96 26.6N 86.5W 998 40
1200UTC 01.09.2016 108 27.3N 86.0W 991 44
0000UTC 02.09.2016 120 28.0N 85.0W 976 62
1200UTC 02.09.2016 132 29.1N 83.9W 963 70
0000UTC 03.09.2016 144 30.5N 82.7W 980 52

[stormwise]

biggest problem i see is mid-level shear/dry air, but that appears to be in the mid to western portion of the GOM the eastern portion looks ok.

[ALhurricane]

The 00z Canadian with landfall almost identical to 12z Euro in the W FL panhandle but a day earlier. Not that it means a whole bunch.

[deltadog03]

The 00z Canadian with landfall almost identical to 12z Euro in the W FL panhandle but a day earlier. Not that it means a whole bunch.

What's up bud, long time. Cmc looked to be getting stronger each frame as well until landfall

[ALhurricane]

The 00z Canadian with landfall almost identical to 12z Euro in the W FL panhandle but a day earlier. Not that it means a whole bunch.

What's up bud, long time. Cmc looked to be getting stronger each frame as well until landfall

Hey there! Staying busy. I usually lurk, but this thing has me so frustrated I have to post something.

[Alyono]

the MU now has this playing the role of Henri (1985) as behind it comes the big one

I needed that laugh. This isn't hanging off the East Coast for a week

[centuryv58]

the MU now has this playing the role of Henri (1985) as behind it comes the big one

I needed that laugh. This isn't hanging off the East Coast for a week

I saw that too. Looks like a Cat 6 or something

[stormwise]

JMA runs with the right fork track with the vort, but dont do much with it just rain.

[bamajammer4eva]

Whats the difference between the GFS and Canadian at hr 120 shear?? Canadian looks like it shows shear all over 99L while GFS is all staying to the NW of 99L. Both show a High on top so why is the intensity so different?

[Steve]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 24.3N 83.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.08.2016 36 24.0N 83.7W 1006 23
0000UTC 30.08.2016 48 24.5N 85.1W 1004 24
1200UTC 30.08.2016 60 24.8N 86.0W 1004 23
0000UTC 31.08.2016 72 25.2N 86.6W 1003 26
1200UTC 31.08.2016 84 25.8N 86.9W 1002 32
0000UTC 01.09.2016 96 26.6N 86.5W 998 40
1200UTC 01.09.2016 108 27.3N 86.0W 991 44
0000UTC 02.09.2016 120 28.0N 85.0W 976 62
1200UTC 02.09.2016 132 29.1N 83.9W 963 70
0000UTC 03.09.2016 144 30.5N 82.7W 980 52

So 86.9? I said I thought 85-86.5 so that's pretty close.

[RL3AO]

The upper low on the GEM in the Caribbean is causing strong winds near the Florida straights.

[wxmann_91]

Whats the difference between the GFS and Canadian at hr 120 shear?? Canadian looks like it shows shear all over 99L while GFS is all staying to the NW of 99L. Both show a High on top so why is the intensity so different?

The ULL to the west of 99L is much more amplified on the GFS (edit: actually a trof instead of a low, but anyway, point is the westerlies sag south in the GFS solution and impinge on 99L). It barely registers on the CMC and in fact a different ULL to its southeast allows dual outflow channels to develop in that particular solution.

[deltadog03]

The 00z Canadian with landfall almost identical to 12z Euro in the W FL panhandle but a day earlier. Not that it means a whole bunch.

What's up bud, long time. Cmc looked to be getting stronger each frame as well until landfall

Hey there! Staying busy. I usually lurk, but this thing has me so frustrated I have to post something.

Ya this one is weird for sure. I'm curious to see what the euro does tonight.

[stormwise]

The upper low on the GEM in the Caribbean is causing strong winds near the Florida straights.

Any chance you think that upper low will open a channel for a duel outflow should the invest get going in GOM.