Tropical Wave about to emerge West Africa (Is Invest 92L)

[gatorcane]

Wow both Euro and GFS blow this up into a monster and sends this way far to the west with lots of ridging across the entire Atlantic. Look at the 500mb ridge on the ECMWF long-range

[tolakram]

Overnight model runs

[cycloneye]

0%-60%

A tropical wave is expected to move offshore of the west coast of
Africa on Tuesday. Conditions are expected to be favorable for
development of this system later this week while it moves westward
at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/769868661221892096

[Blown Away]

Forgotten what a long tracking CV hurricane looks like...

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/769874070288543745

[blp]

Forgotten what a long tracking CV hurricane looks like...

Yeah years ago we used to see at least one or two every couple of years.

[cycloneye]

Here it comes approaching the West African coast in a couple of days.

[KWT]

Already looking impressive there cycloneye!

Think this one will probably get going right as it comes offshore and we may have a TD/TS near the CV islands. Bring on the next invest!

[TheStormExpert]

06z GEFS Ensembles trending more west in the long-range when compared to the 18z & 00z Ensembles.

[toad strangler]

How many CV systems that have developed so far east actually made it near the CONUS without gaining significant latitude / scooped up and fish, or went S into Mexico etc? I can't think of one ATM. That is a RARE thing.
I know that 500mb ridging looks stout on both the Euro and GFS pretty much all the way across but if so my early thought would be a Caribbean Cruiser south of the cheese grater islands.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/edvalleewx/status/769870188774776832

[BobHarlem]

I think the last true long track TS/hurricane that made it all the way west to a US landfall was Ike back in 2008.

[toad strangler]

I think the last true long track TS/hurricane that made it all the way west to a US landfall was Ike back in 2008.

Ike developed too far west to be considered a Cape Verde system. Some might think I am splitting hairs though ....

[Hurricaneman]

I think the last true long track TS/hurricane that made it all the way west to a US landfall was Ike back in 2008.

Ike developed too far west to be considered a Cape Verde system. Some might think I am splitting hairs though ....

The wave and associated low came off where this one is predicted by the models to come off so there is a possible analog storm here. the 1893 hurricane 6 is also a good analog

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Hurricaneman]

The question is will this become Ian or Julia it will all depend on 99L stay tuned as with the forecasted ridge it could be a threat to the lesser, greater Antilles, Cuba, Bahamas, Eastern Seaboard maybe even Bermuda

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[cycloneye]

12z GFS. Emerging West Africa more south.

[cycloneye]

Over CV islands.

[TheStormExpert]

Much weaker so far on 12z.

[cycloneye]

West of islands Weaker at this point.