ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

the fact its dropping wsw is a sign of genesis as rotational dynamics are in play. also this motion will bring it a little farther away from the heaviest shear.

[Aric Dunn]

Is recon still scheduled to fly in at 1:00 today?

I guess not since they are not in the air already..

According to FlightAware they were wheels up 16 mins ago:
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA43

yep just reloaded the pages and they are in the air. 1 and half to first pass.

[tolakram]

saved radar loop

[GCANE]

Surface Pressure dropping at Sand Key

[floridasun78]

no rain yet south fl look wont get alot rain

[chaser1]

Things are coming together quite nicely given the shear. TD at 5 if recon can find sufficient evidence( which is more than 75% likely) if not then by 11pm though they rarely upgrade at 11. its nice to be able to watch it unfold on radar though.

I think no later than 12 hours to be classified, maybe as early as 5 as you say... watching the radar and rapid scan almost as good as recon, but not quite!

Alright you guys... wanna make this fun lol? My $50.00 to your $25.00 contribution each to S2K bet! I say "no T.D. Classification" by 11:30pm tonight

[MGC]

99L is being squeezed between two ULL, I doubt the upper air pattern changes much the next couple of days. I am beginning to have doubts that 99L will ever develop into a named system.....MGC

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 281724
NOAA3 05EEA INVEST HDOB 02 20160828
171430 2722N 08225W 7808 02283 0142 +160 +086 093020 021 /// /// 03
171500 2720N 08226W 7807 02283 0141 +161 +084 094020 021 /// /// 03
171530 2718N 08226W 7807 02282 0144 +159 +078 091023 023 /// /// 03
171600 2716N 08227W 7807 02283 0140 +163 +077 092023 023 /// /// 03
171630 2714N 08227W 7806 02284 0140 +162 +069 093023 024 /// /// 03
171700 2711N 08228W 7806 02282 0137 +166 +061 092022 023 /// /// 03
171730 2709N 08228W 7810 02278 0137 +165 +060 089023 024 /// /// 03
171800 2707N 08229W 7806 02281 0134 +168 +057 090022 023 /// /// 03
171830 2705N 08229W 7806 02280 0135 +166 +061 092024 025 /// /// 03
171900 2702N 08230W 7809 02277 0135 +167 +056 093025 026 /// /// 03
171930 2700N 08230W 7808 02278 0135 +165 +062 093026 028 /// /// 03
172000 2658N 08231W 7809 02277 0138 +160 +066 090027 028 /// /// 03
172030 2656N 08232W 7809 02275 0135 +163 +068 091026 027 /// /// 03
172100 2654N 08232W 7808 02276 0133 +164 +070 087025 026 /// /// 03
172130 2651N 08233W 7809 02275 0132 +165 +075 086025 026 /// /// 03
172200 2649N 08233W 7809 02275 0128 +169 +071 085022 022 /// /// 03
172230 2647N 08234W 7809 02275 0128 +171 +073 091021 022 /// /// 03
172300 2645N 08234W 7809 02275 0127 +172 +067 092021 022 022 000 00
172330 2642N 08235W 7809 02274 0125 +174 +063 090023 024 022 000 00
172400 2640N 08235W 7809 02274 0126 +173 +050 089023 024 022 000 00

It's not too far to the low. I'll do the TD8 flight if someone else wants to do this.

[Frank P]

Now getting a pop up on the NW side of the CoC.

I saw that too but I think the shear is starting to blow off the top...

[tropicwatch]

saved radar loop

Looks like a strong eddy close to the keys.

[HurriGuy]

99L is being squeezed between two ULL, I doubt the upper air pattern changes much the next couple of days. I am beginning to have doubts that 99L will ever develop into a named system.....MGC

I will have to disagree. The ULL over Texas/LA will be the first to go. Then the one near the Carolinas.

The trend has been 99L will be a slow mover in the Gulf. The more it lingers, the better environment will get. Just my opinion though

[SeGaBob]

Code red at 2pm

[cycloneye]

Shower and thunderstorm activity has begun to increase near and to
the east of a weak area of low pressure located just south of the
lower Florida Keys. The low is expected to move westward into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, where environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few
days. This system is then expected to move slowly northward and
northeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later this week.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely
to continue over portions of the northwestern Bahamas, central and
western Cuba, the Florida Keys and portions of southern Florida
through Monday. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the eastern Gulf
of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[gatorcane]

Check models thread. HWRF stronger and a significant hurricane with landfall just north of Tampa Bay area.

[BobHarlem]

I don't think it'll develop today, that radar is showing it moving almost WSW not west, and I think the shearing will stop anything from going today, tomorrow night or more likely Tuesday would be my guess.

[stormreader]

Things are coming together quite nicely given the shear. TD at 5 if recon can find sufficient evidence( which is more than 75% likely) if not then by 11pm though they rarely upgrade at 11. its nice to be able to watch it unfold on radar though.

I think no later than 12 hours to be classified, maybe as early as 5 as you say... watching the radar and rapid scan almost as good as recon, but not quite!

Alright you guys... wanna make this fun lol? My $50.00 to your $25.00 contribution each to S2K bet! I say "no T.D. Classification" by 11:30pm tonight

Not betting! But you can see clearly on Tolakram's radar loop just how quickly t-storms to the east are catching up to the center. Also see beginnings of t-storm firing to north of center.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KWBC 281734
NOAA3 05EEA INVEST HDOB 03 20160828
172430 2638N 08236W 7809 02274 0123 +174 +062 091022 023 023 001 00
172500 2636N 08236W 7810 02271 0123 +172 +078 090022 022 023 002 00
172530 2633N 08237W 7809 02272 0122 +173 +066 090023 023 023 001 00
172600 2631N 08237W 7809 02272 0124 +170 +077 092024 024 022 002 00
172630 2629N 08238W 7810 02269 0125 +166 +086 093025 025 024 000 00
172700 2627N 08239W 7811 02268 0125 +166 +089 093025 026 024 000 00
172730 2624N 08239W 7812 02267 0122 +168 +091 089024 025 024 000 00
172800 2622N 08240W 7810 02270 0124 +165 +091 088023 025 024 000 00
172830 2620N 08240W 7812 02266 0122 +169 +072 083021 021 024 000 00
172900 2618N 08241W 7811 02267 0124 +167 +074 084021 021 024 000 00
172930 2616N 08241W 7811 02267 0125 +165 +079 082022 022 024 000 00
173000 2613N 08242W 7811 02267 0129 +158 +100 084023 023 024 000 00
173030 2611N 08242W 7812 02266 0131 +155 +106 085023 024 024 000 00
173100 2609N 08243W 7812 02265 0128 +157 +110 081022 022 025 000 00
173130 2607N 08244W 7812 02266 0126 +160 +113 083021 021 026 000 00
173200 2604N 08244W 7812 02266 0128 +156 +115 083020 021 025 000 00
173230 2602N 08245W 7814 02263 0125 +162 +105 083022 023 025 000 00
173300 2600N 08245W 7814 02262 0125 +159 +108 083023 023 025 000 00
173330 2557N 08246W 7813 02264 0126 +159 +110 083022 022 025 000 00
173400 2555N 08246W 7813 02263 0126 +158 +108 081022 023 025 000 00

[Aric Dunn]

Check models thread. HWRF stronger and a significant hurricane with landfall just north of Tampa Bay area.

hwrf has been very very persistent..

[Frank P]

Things are coming together quite nicely given the shear. TD at 5 if recon can find sufficient evidence( which is more than 75% likely) if not then by 11pm though they rarely upgrade at 11. its nice to be able to watch it unfold on radar though.

I think no later than 12 hours to be classified, maybe as early as 5 as you say... watching the radar and rapid scan almost as good as recon, but not quite!

Alright you guys... wanna make this fun lol? My $50.00 to your $25.00 contribution each to S2K bet! I say "no T.D. Classification" by 11:30pm tonight

I really hate betting, especially if I might have a chance to lose, no dice... but I will STILL make a donation to Storm2K as I have done so in the past.. time for me to open up the wallet again.. besides, where else can you get such great entertainment for so little cost !!!!

[northjaxpro]

Left lingering in SE or Central Gulf senario?? Not sold at this point on the hook northeast which is dominant forecast. As system clears the straits and enters GOM it should feel the influence of the ULL over Tex-La coast. So should be a north component. But my understanding is that this effect will gradually be weakening at that time. Ridging beginning to reassert itself. If that is the case you would have a strengthening storm/hurricane lingering in the north east or north central GOM. In my mind (at this time of year) you might find a slow drift wnw. depends on how much ridging builds back in on northern Gulf coast. I think there is a lot of healthy skepticism right now about this late Aug hook into the Big Bend or Tampa area.

In all due respect to you stormreader, there has always been and continues to be healthty skepticism all the way around with 99L, which has been the case for going on for over a week now. It doesn't matter, the models, synoptic setup etc...