ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tarheelprogrammer]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8shr.GIF

Shear is growing in intensity and in size. As is typical it seems to be following the storm.

[Tireman4]

So after observing this board for quite a few days, the interest suddenly ramps up over a system that is a very weak TD. It is as if everyone is so happy for a TD. Add to that, no one has any idea to its final destiny, or intensity. I think things are really overhyped, jmo, but it is all entertaining.

\
Well you know, we are weather nerds. We love weather. What can we say?

[Steve]

I have been reading the boards and did not see anyone answer the question of what was causing all the models to take it right back over Florida? I remember Elena in 1985 that re curved twice?

Once something is classified, read the forecast discussion on the NHC's page. They will usually tell you what they see, what they base the track on and where they agree or disagree with model depictions.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2055.shtml

[sponger]

https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/ind ... eight=1500

200 frames really shows the story!

[3090]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

Shear is growing in intensity and in size. As is typical it seems to be following the storm.

EXCELLENT if this continues! Hopefully 9 is simply only a short lived minor, miserable rain event, IF it should make a landfall along the U.S. coastline.

[Stormcenter]

By the way TD Nine seems to be moving WSW, I don't think that was part of the plan.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-loop-vis.html

[Aric Dunn]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

Shear is growing in intensity and in size. As is typical it seems to be following the storm.

EXCELLENT if this continues! Hopefully 9 is simply only a short lived minor, miserable rain event, IF it should make a landfall along the U.S. coastline.

Actually if you notice the shear axis is slowly lifting and allowing that upper to slide back east its nearly under it now especially if it keep this wsw motion

[HurriGuy]

The sheer is not as bad as the map shows for the llc. It is bad for the north side of the circulation, but all TD 9 wants to do at this moment is keep a defined circulation.

[PTrackerLA]

By the way TD Nine seems to be moving WSW, I don't think that was part of the plan.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-loop-vis.html

We don't like seeing storms moving WSW in this area...

[TheProfessor]

So after observing this board for quite a few days, the interest suddenly ramps up over a system that is a very weak TD. It is as if everyone is so happy for a TD. Add to that, no one has any idea to its final destiny, or intensity. I think things are really overhyped, jmo, but it is all entertaining. Much ado about nothing ATM.

I don't think you understand how this storm was just a naked swirl for a couple of days and has looked dead multiple times only to get back up and keep pushing westward. I guess you could call it the Rudy of storms.

[Aric Dunn]

By the way hwrf is stronger sooner now.. hurricane in 48 hours

[Frank P]

By the way TD Nine seems to be moving WSW, I don't think that was part of the plan.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-loop-vis.html

Yeah, and I'd be surprised if this thing goes according to plan too... definitely heading wsw..... amazing...

[drewschmaltz]

I've always felt the cognitive dissonance of loving weather and wanting a storm to become the biggest baddest craziest thing that's has ever brewed and not wanting pain and suffering. 3 weeks ago I became a first time homeowner in central Florida. I have a wife, child and giant screened in porch. Even still I want this storm to become a monster and barrel down on us. Take out the land between us and the coast and just let it rip. At the same time I would never want this to happen. Seeing these feelings espoused on this forum is awkward. The posts about not wanting the storm to grow are a reminder of my sane self and I don't come here to be sane. Can we just say once and for all that none of us want anything bad to happen to anyone but that's not why we are here. We are here to track storms and not to figure out if they will dissipate but to predict if they will organize. It's taboo. It ain't right. But it's fun because nature is awesome.

[3090]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

Shear is growing in intensity and in size. As is typical it seems to be following the storm.

EXCELLENT if this continues! Hopefully 9 is simply only a short lived minor, miserable rain event, IF it should make a landfall along the U.S. coastline.

Actually if you notice the shear axis is slowly lifting and allowing that upper to slide back east its nearly under it now especially if it keep this wsw motion

That is curious, with an apparent slight W-SW movement ATM. These systems easily wobble/stair step. So a small W-SW movement, does not mean much long term.

[HurriGuy]

I still think a lot of this convection will start to progressively look worse after this current explosion stops. That has been the trend every night and it really gets going in the morning.

[bamajammer4eva]

Well if it is moving WSW now looks like that would mean it would be less of a threat of making it to the Northern Gulf coast because the turn NE should happen further south affecting Central FL like Tampa area instead of the Big Bend area

[Aric Dunn]

I still think a lot of this convection will start to progressively look worse after this current explosion stops. That has been the trend every night and it really gets going in the morning.

But that was before it had a well defined surface circ. Its quite likely convection will keep re firing .

[BreinLa]

Thought some of you might want to join the discussion in the storm2k chatroom...see below on how to enter




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[Chris_in_Tampa]

Can't post obs, just posting an image. Through 6:54pm EDT.

Visible and infrared imagery as of 6:58pm EDT:

[Aric Dunn]

Hwrf rapidly intensifying at 63 hours