ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[JaxGator]

I still think a lot of this convection will start to progressively look worse after this current explosion stops. That has been the trend every night and it really gets going in the morning.

It has been the trend for the last few days. However, now that it has a confirmed closed center, it probably won't take as much to fire convection. Maybe. Still learning.

[Recurve]

I've always felt the cognitive dissonance of loving weather and wanting a storm to become the biggest baddest craziest thing that's has ever brewed and not wanting pain and suffering. 3 weeks ago I became a first time homeowner in central Florida. I have a wife, child and giant screened in porch. Even still I want this storm to become a monster and barrel down on us. Take out the land between us and the coast and just let it rip. At the same time I would never want this to happen. Seeing these feelings espoused on this forum is awkward. The posts about not wanting the storm to grow are a reminder of my sane self and I don't come here to be sane. Can we just say once and for all that none of us want anything bad to happen to anyone but that's not why we are here. We are here to track storms and not to figure out if they will dissipate but to predict if they will organize. It's taboo. It ain't right. But it's fun because nature is awesome.

And I'm guessing you haven't been though anything bad, tropical wise. After living through scary storms and seeing destruction that takes years to recover from, there's not a lot of thrill left. But that's OK, I understand everyone's interest, anything from intense cheerleading to paralyzing dread. I know everyone's concerned about those in the path and will help however they're able if a disaster happens.

Some of the HWRF runs have been bad news for Tampa Bay. It would be more interesting to track an intensifying storm, but the worst case is a Charley like intensification and a center crossing around Tarpon Springs. There would be chaos in the evacuation and horrible flooding in Tampa. Many people here do not know what a real hurricane is like, would not believe the storm surge could cover their homes, and almost certainly don't know that even a tropical storm can throw out killer tornadoes and deadly flooding.

[Javlin]

What a serious upper level pattern to contend with! four ULL over 50' all about 600miles apart .Notice how the one SW of Gaston help on ventilation.The TX/LA is about to exit NNE/NE because of the ULL over New Mexico which seems the ULL off of GA will move to to TX maybe?I always thought when a low exits High pressure fills in?pretty quick.


http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+24

[Dean4Storms]

Well if it is moving WSW now looks like that would mean it would be less of a threat of making it to the Northern Gulf coast because the turn NE should happen further south affecting Central FL like Tampa area instead of the Big Bend area

Not necessarily, it could conceivably get far enough WSW that it never gets high enough in latitude to get pulled eastward, that break down of the ridge and TD9's exact location can mean a great deal of difference.

[HurriGuy]

Hwrf rapidly intensifying at 63 hours

If you are using HWRF, it shows hardly any thunderstorms in the next 6 hours

But in reference to my other post, I don't know if the LLC is defined enough to persist convection. We will see.

[tropicwatch]

. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON SYSTEM IN GULF OF MEXICO
IF IT DEVELOPS.
Guess they going to have to reshuffle their schedule

[bob rulz]

NBC apparently got #9 confused with Gaston

Good thing NBC doesn't have a weather branch. Oh wait, that's right, they own THE WEATHER CHANNEL!

Luckily they seem to have deleted the tweet and re-posted more accurate info. I can't find the other tweet.

https://twitter.com/NBCNightlyNews/stat ... 0680453125

[Soonercane]

nice convective burst near the center the last few hours, although generally propagating south of the LLC as expected given UL winds/shear. SHIPS give it a shot of becoming a minimal hurricane even give the moderate shear values it will encounter through much of its life in the GOM

[nativefloridian]

And so it goes..........here, there, and who knows where. A most fickle tropical system that continues to fight atmospheric influences that are there...then there not...and then they're back. Mother Nature likes playing the game of wait and see what happens next

[SoupBone]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

Shear is growing in intensity and in size. As is typical it seems to be following the storm.

I've posted about this for the last several days, and what's strange is that it either has had no effect, or a positive one on TD 9.

[jhpigott]

Well if it is moving WSW now looks like that would mean it would be less of a threat of making it to the Northern Gulf coast because the turn NE should happen further south affecting Central FL like Tampa area instead of the Big Bend area

Not necessarily, it could conceivably get far enough WSW that it never gets high enough in latitude to get pulled eastward, that break down of the ridge and TD9's exact location can mean a great deal of difference.

My 2 cents: What we saw today with the convective pattern and circulation was similar to what we saw the last couple days - only difference is recon was present today. My bet is the convection and broad low continues off to the wnw and the feature diving sw to the cuban coast will just end up being another "spit out" eddy/vort

[Aric Dunn]

Hwrf sub 950 at landfall.

[HurriGuy]

Cuba mountains might have hold of the circulation.

I am struggling to see how this does not avoid the terrain.

Anyone else?

[jlauderdal]

Lets hope hwrf is doing its typical over intenisty thing

[tolakram]

Hi everyone,

we're going to get busy here so please please please avoid trolls, report posts that you think need to be moderated, and stay polite. The mods certainly appreciate your cooperation.

[idaknowman]

Sat down to eat dinner and scanned the tv channels. Fox News' lead story started with "Millions in Florida are preparing...". Millions?

They showed obvious stock footage of people buying water at a grocery store, and mentioned that one of the models was showing TD9 moving towards central/northern Florida and then CURVE back down again! The story ended with this: "be prepared, be prepared, be prepared". Yep three times in a row.

Oops, posted this before I saw the post above - sorry mods.

[robbielyn]

Hwrf sub 950 at landfall.

yeah but thats with old data before llc. with all the shear I dont see that happening. it cant even gain latitude either.

[CrazyC83]

Amended thread to make clear this is the place for Florida local reports.

[stormreader]

Well if it is moving WSW now looks like that would mean it would be less of a threat of making it to the Northern Gulf coast because the turn NE should happen further south affecting Central FL like Tampa area instead of the Big Bend area

Not necessarily, it could conceivably get far enough WSW that it never gets high enough in latitude to get pulled eastward, that break down of the ridge and TD9's exact location can mean a great deal of difference.

That's what I was thinking with a post earlier today. Think in that case you would have a system on a slow west to west-northwest drift.

[TimeZone]

Lets hope hwrf is doing its typical over intenisty thing

I'm convinced it is. Shear looks like it'll remain an issue for little TD9 for the remainder of it's life. It also looks like it may crash into Cuba. I'd be shocked if this ever became even a minimal Hurricane, let alone a major. I'm no pro, but those are my thoughts.