ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SeGaBob]

FWIW Nws has tropical storm conditions possible in the forecast here Thursday night. I doubt it happens though as NHC will probably shift the track south.

[psyclone]

Key West radar is....ummm...(trying to be diplomatic here)...underwhelming. I'm still a little surprised this was upgraded. I wonder if the folks at the NHC ever have "upgraders remorse"...seems possible.

[robbielyn]

My brother lives in Virginia Beach so I was giving him a heads up about TD8, which I am sure he
has heard of, and I was pointing to this web site for better info. However, when I typed in just "www.storm2k.org" I got to
a page that I couldn't find the discussion pages like I see when I log in. Where does he need to go to get where I would like
him to be able to see and read all of the info that goes on here?

On the home screen click on upper right box that says forums then hit 2nd link down called Active atlantic storms then go to depression TD9 discussions

[floridasun78]

look on radar td9 going into Caribbean by Cayman islands look ull over Bahama pulling td 9 sw maybe models don't do well with ull

[La Sirena]

Key West radar is....ummm...(trying to be diplomatic here)...underwhelming. I'm still a little surprised this was upgraded. I wonder if the folks at the NHC ever have "upgraders remorse"...seems possible.

Its just very gusty here with the occasional sprinkle. Certainly not what I was expecting!

[floridasun78]

other thing look ull coming from bahamas moving west

[TimeZone]

getting BLASTED again by northerly shear

This is a recording. Doesn't seem like it'll let up anytime soon either. GFDL and HWRF are out to lunch with intensity as usual.

[stormreader]

It is getting pinched between 2 upper lows. One over the west Gulf that is moving to the east. The second one southwest of TD Eight

It's interesting. The globals a few days back progged that WGOM upper low to move west into Texas not east. In fact I think even as late as yesterday they showed that. But sure enough that ULL is moving east and the further west #9 goes, the more likely that ULL will rip it up (assuming the low maintains its identity).

Does make me wonder if there might be a surprise or two with the eventual track of #9 considering the models not having a good grip on the GOM upper features.

I could be wrong, but there is a surface low plotted currently. Someone said the pressures are high, so it's relative. But one of the noaa offices has it backing SW. Who knows, and hopefully 9 doesn't decide to stall because you would have upper pattern reversal. In any event, this system plugs on. Could be an annoyance, could be trouble.

Exactly! Let's see how this plays out. That "backing SW" does seem to be happening in the short term. That's what I meant about it heading for the Yucatan channel. Then what?

[hipshot]

Hope he joins us. When you go to the main page top right corner a box shows forums. Have him click there. I missed it the first time there, too. It is rather small.

My brother lives in Virginia Beach so I was giving him a heads up about TD8, which I am sure he
has heard of, and I was pointing to this web site for better info. However, when I typed in just "www.storm2k.org" I got to
a page that I couldn't find the discussion pages like I see when I log in. Where does he need to go to get where I would like
him to be able to see and read all of the info that goes on here?

Got it, thanks much!

[BobHarlem]

look on radar td9 going into Caribbean by Cayman islands look ull over Bahama pulling td 9 sw maybe models don't do well with ull

That seems to be normal daytime flareups, long run http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?217 makes it a bit easier to spot that the center is still off north Cuba, but it did get quite a bit closer to land. A bit of northerly shear,

[tolakram]

Here's the water vapor loop.

There is a zone of lower shear to the west and with one ULL drifting east and the other fairly stationary this amateur thinks conditions might improve later tonight or tomorrow.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-82&info=wv&zoom=4&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=wv1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black

Latest shear analysis

[HurriGuy]

31 minutes and not a post. I'll break the ice

As suspected convection having a hard time forming

[abajan]

Let's focus MORE on the actual disturbance 99L and less on what the "blue tag" who agrees with your viewpoint is writing.

As tireman said, the pro meteorologists here are here on their own volition. Meteorologists do not always agree. This isn't news nor is it a reason to call anyone's credentials into question.

Now back to our regular programming ...

I have seen this "blue tag" for pro mets mentioned. Where the heck is it? Sorry for the off topic.

There's no tag. It's just that their usernames are a more vivid shade of blue.

[artist]

Anyone else notice NHC 5 day graphic has everything missing but the area exiting Africa? Or are they stating all others will go poof within the next 5 day

Ooops, the one by Tx is still there. I guess we can hope the others are all gone by then.

[tropicwatch]

Updated shear map. Looks like the ull east of Jacksonville is moving north and TD 9 appears to be out from under it.

[floridasun78]

31 minutes and not a post. I'll break the ice

As suspected convection having a hard time forming

everyone getting ready school and work and watching tv their alot days ahead watch td9

[TimeZone]

31 minutes and not a post. I'll break the ice

As suspected convection having a hard time forming

everyone getting ready school and work and watching tv their alot days ahead watch td9

But what about the unemployed losers like myself who have nothing to look forward to except for new posts on Storm2k?

Honestly though that's enough watching TD9 get beat up by Shear for one night for me.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/770061201854300160

[stormreader]

Don't know about the forecast, but this "mess" of a depression continues WSW toward the western tip of Cuba and Yucatan channel. Poorly organized and much of system over land, I wouldn't be surprised to see reorganization (if conditions improve) further south and west in the Yucatan channel itself.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[JaxGator]

Updated shear map. Looks like the ull east of Jacksonville is moving north and TD 9 appears to be out from under it.

So the shear hitting TD 9 is heading north and over TD 8? The race for Hermine continues..lol.