ATL: HERMINE - Models

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3601 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 28, 2016 10:35 pm

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3602 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 28, 2016 10:40 pm

So far Identical to the previous run.

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3603 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 28, 2016 10:41 pm

Here's the trend for 36 hours.

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3604 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 28, 2016 10:45 pm

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3605 Postby RL3AO » Sun Aug 28, 2016 10:51 pm

Hammy wrote:Is there a reason the 4km and 12km NAM have different outcomes?


They're different models. Biggest difference is a 4km model resolves convection explicitly while a 12km parameterizes it. The area in between is a weird gray area which the Euro just happens to be in.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3606 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 28, 2016 10:51 pm

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3607 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 28, 2016 10:56 pm

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3608 Postby Alyono » Sun Aug 28, 2016 10:58 pm

RL3AO wrote:
Hammy wrote:Is there a reason the 4km and 12km NAM have different outcomes?


They're different models. Biggest difference is a 4km model resolves convection explicitly while a 12km parameterizes it. The area in between is a weird gray area which the Euro just happens to be in.


are we sure NCEP is running explicit convection? Is it possible they would paramaterize at that resolution?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3609 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 28, 2016 10:59 pm

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3610 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 28, 2016 11:01 pm

Slightly weaker this run, same general area.

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3611 Postby tolakram » Sun Aug 28, 2016 11:03 pm

That's it for me for tonight. Here's the animation so far.

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3612 Postby bamajammer4eva » Sun Aug 28, 2016 11:04 pm

The system the GFS spawns off the Ga coast moving ahead of #9 ends up being stronger
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3613 Postby sponger » Sun Aug 28, 2016 11:05 pm

Still not showing much intensity.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3614 Postby Alyono » Sun Aug 28, 2016 11:24 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 23.5N 82.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.08.2016 0 23.5N 82.3W 1007 21
1200UTC 29.08.2016 12 23.3N 84.3W 1007 22
0000UTC 30.08.2016 24 23.8N 85.4W 1006 21
1200UTC 30.08.2016 36 24.3N 86.8W 1007 21
0000UTC 31.08.2016 48 25.0N 87.1W 1005 21
1200UTC 31.08.2016 60 25.8N 87.1W 1005 25
0000UTC 01.09.2016 72 26.7N 86.7W 1003 30
1200UTC 01.09.2016 84 28.1N 85.4W 999 39
0000UTC 02.09.2016 96 29.1N 83.5W 983 57
1200UTC 02.09.2016 108 31.1N 80.6W 981 59
0000UTC 03.09.2016 120 32.9N 76.1W 973 68
1200UTC 03.09.2016 132 35.4N 70.5W 966 76
0000UTC 04.09.2016 144 37.5N 65.2W 982 63
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3615 Postby Alyono » Mon Aug 29, 2016 12:07 am

and HWRF decided it wants Tampa, but now on Wednesday
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3616 Postby Wx_Warrior » Mon Aug 29, 2016 1:09 am

Euro 00z 72h

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3617 Postby Alyono » Mon Aug 29, 2016 1:18 am

at least the EC has a TS landfall this time
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3618 Postby Wx_Warrior » Mon Aug 29, 2016 1:19 am

Euro 96

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3619 Postby Hammy » Mon Aug 29, 2016 2:24 am

Euro seems to take this to a major hurricane at almost New Jersey latitude...
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#3620 Postby N2FSU » Mon Aug 29, 2016 5:03 am

06z GFS +90hr
Looks to have shifted landfall ever so slightly north perhaps?

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