ATL: HERMINE - Models

[Nimbus]

NHC is still favoring the right side of the guidance so they must not be disregarding the HWRF.
I believe they think there will be a digging trough before landfall which might provide some shear.

[Orlando]

Does anyone have a chart that shows the percentage of times that any of the models predicted storms with accuracy over the years?

[ronjon]

06z HWRF - appears a little stronger than 00z. It's at 980 mb at 42 hrs. Looks to be headed for Tampa Bay again.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=09L&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016082906&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=0

[ronjon]

Overnight model summary:
ECM - TS (big bend)
GFS - TS (big bend)
CMC - Hurricane (Appalachicola)
GFDL - Hurricane (Appalachicola)
HWRF - Hurricane (Tampa Bay)
NAMGEM - TS Panama City
NAM - TS/Hurricane Nature Coast

[Blinhart]

And all of them are hoping that the Trough that is no wheres in sight appears in the next couple days.

Edit: unless it is the one that is up there in Minnesota right now.

[HurricaneBelle]

Overnight model summary:
ECM - TS (big bend)
GFS - TS (big bend)
CMC - Hurricane (Appalachicola)
GFDL - Hurricane (Appalachicola)
HWRF - Hurricane (Tampa Bay)
NAMGEM - TS Panama City
NAM - TS/Hurricane Nature Coast

Update on the HWRF: The 06Z run takes it to the Nature Coast around Citrus/northern Hernando as a Cat 1. The interesting thing on the last couple of HWRF runs is that it's sped up the turn, bringing it onshore Wednesday afternoon instead of Thursday.

[BucMan2]

Assuming TD 9 heads towards the nature coast as a high end TS , would the strongest weather still be to the east and south?
What envelope would this storm cover?

[tolakram]

Overnight model runs

[RL3AO]

Does anyone have a chart that shows the percentage of times that any of the models predicted storms with accuracy over the years?

That probably doesn't exist. Seems like a difficult question to ask. What counts as predicted accurately? All runs have errors. All models have good runs and bad runs over the life of a storm. The best you can do is look at the errors over the entire season which you can find within the NHC Verification Reports.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify3.shtml

[Orlando]

I know that the simple answer is that the GFS and the European models are the most accurate. I just wondered about all of the models in general, and how they have fared over the years with their predictions. Thanks for the information.

[LarryWx]

I know that the simple answer is that the GFS and the European models are the most accurate. I just wondered about all of the models in general, and how they have fared over the years with their predictions. Thanks for the information.

I think the UKMET can be included in top 3 of accuracy, if not top 2. Anyone else know?

[ronjon]

I know that the simple answer is that the GFS and the European models are the most accurate. I just wondered about all of the models in general, and how they have fared over the years with their predictions. Thanks for the information.

NHC relies heavily on GFS and ECM but how they use the models is basically an average of the best ones - on the cluster plots you'll see TVCN which basically averages the better producing ones. Analysis has shown doing this minimizes overall track error.

[Orlando]

I'll keep an eye out for that one since it averages them all together. Thanks for letting me know.

[Agua]

That's pretty good agreement and they've been depicting this area for at least a couple of days now. I think it's too close in for a big flip, so breathing a good bit easier now.

[TimeZone]

Any chance whatever is left of this thing could make it's way towards the Maritimes down the road?

[ronjon]

I see 06Z GFDl went bananas on intensity - now 958 mb into the FL panhandle.

[ronjon]

12z NAM now intensifying as it approaches the nature coast - down to 992 mb at landfall. I know its the NAM but the trend has been its getting stronger each run. Not good.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016082912&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=0

[toad strangler]

12z plots

[tolakram]

12Z GFS running

[tolakram]

So far a copy of the 6z run