ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[caneman]

The current status of TD 9 and forecasted UL winds because of the trough is as if we are tracking a storm in May/early June, not very like a late August set up all the sudden.

Yes it is quite similar, especially in the angle of recurve.

With that being said, whilst the NHC thinks that trough will stop strengthening, I've seen plenty of these types of NE moving cyclones get a power-up initially as it happens. Will need to be watched.

Agreed, I have seen storms strenghten once moving in direction wiyh the sheer. Further, if it's fairly strong already and so little time before impact there may not be much affect.

[GCANE]

Outflow on the east half is really nice.
The ULL north of Puerto Rico may already be grabbing hold of it.

[toad strangler]

12z plots

[xcool22]

I think go be more west ,just don't see go so fast NE turn imo...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[tolakram]

It appears to me that the upper air environment is going to be fairly decent for strengthening, with the ULL to the north west in a good position to help vent the storm. Perhaps that's what the HWRF is seeing? The question may come down to mid level dry air.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-85&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=12&mapcolor=black

[JILL239]

Are we seeing any evidence of it going any more South than it is already showing? Should Fort Myers and Naples be concerned

I am so mesmerized by all of this enjoying all the models and the discussions. Learning a lot

[JaxGator]

Outflow on the east half is really nice.
The ULL north of Puerto Rico may already be grabbing hold of it.

To what effect? Enhancing the storm's outflow?

[StormHunter72]

I think go be more west ,just don't see go so fast NE turn imo...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Lucky for you in LA track is pretty good from NHC you don't need anymore rain.

[Agua]

I think go be more west ,just don't see go so fast NE turn imo...

That's pretty good agreement and they've been consistent for a day now. It's within a couple of days of landfall and that's about the point they have it locked down pretty well. I think you can breathe a little easier now.

[StormHunter72]

Are we seeing any evidence of it going any more South than it is already showing? Should Fort Myers and Naples be concerned

I am so mesmerized by all of this enjoying all the models and the discussions. Learning a lot

probably sarasota north but anything is possible.

[GCANE]

Outflow on the east half is really nice.
The ULL north of Puerto Rico may already be grabbing hold of it.

To what effect? Enhancing the storm's outflow?

Yes

[PerfectStorm]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=black

Is that an eye feature at 14:45 (last frame or two) peeping out where COC/LLC?

[NDG]

It's not like it has been going through ice waters most of it's life. It's all been warm from the leewards to bahamas, and SGOM now. Atmosphere dictates almost everything. Gaston managed a major in less warm waters (and less OHC) then this depression did with very different results.

Exactly right, northerly upper and mid level shear has kept it at bay since entering the Caribbean, yesterday was the closest I saw the low level vorticity to the mid level vorticity but northerly shear came in again and the mid level vorticity kept drifting to the SW.
Today it seems like the mid level vorticity is trying to gain latitude as maybe a sign that finally northerly shear is starting to led up.

[davidiowx]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-85&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=12&mapcolor=black

Is that an eye feature at 14:45 (last frame or two) peeping out where COC/LLC?

I don't see anything close to an eye in those frames.

[caneman]

No eye but see convection has built into n.e
quad. Just needs to fill in North and nw. May be a t.s already.

[gatorcane]

NEXSTAT has a nice loop:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... PE=Instant

[JaxGator]

No eye but see convection has built into n.e
quad. Just needs to fill in North and nw. May be a t.s already.

On the latest frame of the "Rainbow Loop", you can see that starting to happen.

[PerfectStorm]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-85&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=12&mapcolor=black

Is that an eye feature at 14:45 (last frame or two) peeping out where COC/LLC?

I don't see anything close to an eye in those frames.

yeah just got the 15:15 and looks like was just a tstorm tower now slightly sheared now to ene.

[otterlyspicey]

(First real post outside of a "Welcome/New User" thread...yay! Lol)

This has been such a fun and frustrating low to watch from the start. I have frequented this board for years and decided to actually start posting. As far as the low goes itself, the shear has been such an annoyance this whole time. And you can see that even though its lessened to an extent, it's still present. I just want to be able to blow all of the shear away lol

[TimeZone]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-85&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=12&mapcolor=black

Is that an eye feature at 14:45 (last frame or two) peeping out where COC/LLC?

You knew it was only a matter of time before we had this post.