Tropical Wave about to emerge West Africa (Is Invest 92L)

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

[TheStormExpert]

Cutoff low forming over the SE U.S. day 6-7 may protect the U.S.?

[cycloneye]

Closing on Antigua and Barbuda.

[TheStormExpert]

Cutoff low weakening on 12z GFS @180hrs., Bermuda High flexing it's muscles.

[cycloneye]

Between St Croix ands St Thomas.

[gatorcane]

Cutoff low weakening on 12z GFS @180hrs., Bermuda High flexing it's muscles.

Not liking this run one bit.

[cycloneye]

Grazing north coast of Hispanola.

[RL3AO]

Large-scale pattern supports a potential storm getting west. Obviously, that's a big range so we will see what happens over the next week or so.

[WeatherEmperor]

Really threading the needle here. 50-75 miles north or south could put it in the carib sea or die over Hispanola or just scrape the north coast if Hispanola


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[TheStormExpert]

Ramps up much sooner this run.

[TheStormExpert]

Really threading the needle here. 50-75 miles north or south could put it in the carib sea or die over Hispanola or just scrape the north coast if Hispanola


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Even if it goes 50 miles or so north of Hispaniola it could fall apart due to the inflow being cutoff.

[gatorcane]

Turning WNW at 198 hours:

[RL3AO]

Really threading the needle here. 50-75 miles north or south could put it in the carib sea or die over Hispanola or just scrape the north coast if Hispanola


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It's not even worth thinking about this far out. It's still a big picture thing. Environment supports a potential land threat (this includes the Caribbean, US, Bermuda, and potentially parts of Mexico/Cent. America)...if it develops.

[SouthFLTropics]

Turning WNW at 198 hours:

That Bermuda high is a beast...

[gatorcane]

Poised for a South Florida strike looking at that 500MB pattern:

[WeatherEmperor]

Really threading the needle here. 50-75 miles north or south could put it in the carib sea or die over Hispanola or just scrape the north coast if Hispanola


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Even if it goes 50 miles or so north of Hispaniola it could fall apart due to the inflow being cutoff.

Exactly. I forgot to mention that. Very close indeed


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[TheStormExpert]

Poised for a South Florida strike looking at that 500MB pattern:

The gate is open over South Florida.

[TheStormExpert]

Really threading the needle here. 50-75 miles north or south could put it in the carib sea or die over Hispanola or just scrape the north coast if Hispanola


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Even if it goes 50 miles or so north of Hispaniola it could fall apart due to the inflow being cutoff.

Exactly. I forgot to mention that. Very close indeed


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Also skirts the north Coast of Cuba, do not know how it stays intact.

[KWT]

Even if it goes 50 miles or so north of Hispaniola it could fall apart due to the inflow being cutoff.

Exactly. I forgot to mention that. Very close indeed


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Also skirts the north Coast of Cuba, do not know how it stays intact.

Going to take more than a grazing shot to destroy a likely hurricane. Yes it would take it down somewhat but if it comes into lad as a strong hurricane already, odds are its still going to be one even with a close shave to land.

Anyway a very long way to go, the main thing to take from this run is it is a threat to land, will just depends on whether it does end up forming, not all models agree on that point.