ATL: HERMINE - Models

[gatorcane]

Looks almost frontal on the 12Z GFS depiction:

[tolakram]

Here is the 60 hour trend over 8 runs. Last frame is the current 60h.

[tolakram]

[chaser1]

Looks like slightly deeper vorticity at 78 hrs.? At the surface its now showing a 1005mb

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS 12z 84h

[tolakram]

[Nimbus]

No revelations here, I'm just waiting for recon to feed us some new surface pressure readings.
The only new model anomaly is the classic trough miss by the Deep layer BAM.
The trough should "see" 9 and dig for it but the model anomaly is worth noting.

[OntarioEggplant]

The HWRF run is very strange with the low jumping around after it hits 995 mb at 39 hours

[tarheelprogrammer]

The HWRF run is very strange with the low jumping around after it hits 995 mb at 39 hours

Could it be shear?

[Evil Jeremy]

The 12z HWRF is weaker (about 50kts at landfall) and slower (by 3-6 hours) but the landfall location is basically the same, just around Crystal River.

[tolakram]

HWRF looks very reasonable in my opinion, with the exception of a few frames where the mb drops by 10 then rises back up. Not sure if that's a cached frame or bad frame issue or what.

[KWT]

Based on those 12z models it looks like there may need to be a shift west/north of the track, maybe not by a huge amount but small changes can matter.

Getting a good consensus now on the models, N.Florida region and intensity between 990-1000mbs.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro running

[NDG]

HWRF looks very reasonable in my opinion, with the exception of a few frames where the mb drops by 10 then rises back up. Not sure if that's a cached frame or bad frame issue or what.

http://i.imgur.com/R3mjNky.gif

Not sure what to get out of the 12z HWRF, it forecasts it to be at 24.8N at 18z, clearly TD 9 is still further south. It gets the timing at least wrong.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[gatorcane]

looks more west out through 48 hours on the 12Z ECMWF compared to the 00Z ECMWF

[Wx_Warrior]

12Z euro 72h

[NDG]

Stronger on this run.

[tolakram]