2016 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

A large area of disturbed weather has formed several hundred miles
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions
are expected to be somewhat conducive for gradual development after
the weekend while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[dexterlabio]

Interesting how most people downplay this year's EPAC season but it continues to give us surprises.

[Kingarabian]

Interesting how most people downplay this year's EPAC season but it continues to give us surprises.

People simply ignored that there was a +PDO and that it was at record levels.

[Yellow Evan]

Interesting how most people downplay this year's EPAC season but it continues to give us surprises.

I've never personally witnessed a +PDO/non-Nino 80s like setup play out before, plus La Nina never happened.

[talkon]

12Z EC shows 2 more storms in 10 days, while 18Z GFS shows 3 more in 16 days.
The EPAC is surely going to be hyperactive again.

[kala]

I'm not saying anything in particular but...





It's quite amazing how far along we are already in the EPAC proper.

Just one storm behind 1992 as of today, and potentially two more storms in the first few days of September. At least to me, it's looking like a W, X, Y, or even Z storm might be possible this season, especially if EPAC can keep up the storm "density" that it's achieved thus far, into October.

[cycloneye]

1. A broad area of cloudiness and disorganized showers is located
several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula. Development, if any, of this system is
expected to be slow to occur as it moves westward or west-
northwestward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

2. An area of low pressure is expected to form later this week a few
hundred miles south or southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for slow development of this system as
it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Kingarabian]

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT SUN AUG 28 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lester, located about 1100 miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. A large area of cloudiness and showers located several hundred
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is showing some signs of organization. However, any
development of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it
moves slowly westward or west-northwestward during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

2. An area of low pressure is expected to form later this week a few
hundred miles south or southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for slow development of this system
while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain

[Ntxw]

Twins, possibly both majors later today if Madeline succeeds. Brings back the triplets memories. Both of these should rack up some huge ACE.

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291151
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON AUG 29 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lester, located over a thousand miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers is located
several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula. Any development of this system is
expected to be slow to occur while it moves slowly westward or
west-northwestward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

An area of low pressure is expected to form later this week a few
hundred miles south or southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for slow development of this system
while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[Extratropical94]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291732
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON AUG 29 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Lester, located well to the west of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

Disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms continue in association
with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Any development of this system is expected to be slow to
occur while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward during
the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

An area of low pressure is expected to form toward the end of
the week a few hundred miles south or southeast of Acapulco,
Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for slow
development of this system while it moves west-northwestward or
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[Darvince]

why hello there

[Ntxw]

Madeline did it, twin majors. 5th major of the season and Lester probably 3rd Cat 4

[hurricanes1234]

Les Twins

[1900hurricane]

Now if only 92C can give us triplets. I'm not holding my breath though.

[Kingarabian]

Is the MJO still in the WPAC?

[1900hurricane]

Is the MJO still in the WPAC?

It looks like it has deamplified to me. The biggest upward 200 mb vertical motion anomalies are actually in the EPac right now with the tropical cyclone activity.

[Kingarabian]

From Wunderground:

Today 1 year ago:

Now in the same date:

Deja vu?!

[hurricanes1234]

What a déjà vu as well!

With that slow activity in most of August I never thought we would see two majors at once before the month ended.

The EPAC this year is moving in bursts of intense activity followed by periods of low activity.

[Yellow Evan]

The EPAC this year is moving in bursts of intense activity followed by periods of low activity.

To be fair, I think that's true in a lot of years.