Tropical Wave about to emerge West Africa (Is Invest 92L)

[Gustywind]

Is that my untraines eyes... looks like the orange cone is much more larger and stretching even a little to the South? I don't like this anticipated projection for those who lived in the EC PR especially as a Leewardian and even if i was Windwardian too . NHC seems very bullish on this one, let's see step by step an day by day if this thing could achieve the poof test first and see if it has a real potential to be called a " threat at long term". Time will tell.

I'm suspecting that the trend in the models to slow down development may hint towards a more southern track.

Ok, you're maybe right about that. But unfortunately, that could mean maybe more chances to race on a more westerly course and be a concern for the EC even a TD status (should it verifies first). Way to early to speculate any scenarios . Wait and see mode for... hopefully

[cycloneye]

12z Euro at 120 hours.A little more south than 00z at this point.

[RL3AO]

Africa to 50W in five days...wow.

Looking a lot like a July system where it goes so fast that it struggles to close off the low and intensify. Strong ridge = strong easterlies.

[cycloneye]

144 hours is stronger.

[KWT]

A slight weakness caused by TD9 is present around 144hrs. Its not going to recurve it BUT it may be enough to lift the system more to a WNW track and slow it down. Will be interesting to see what the model does at 168hrs.

Slowly strengthening as well...could be a hurricane into the islands...

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Euro moves this westward at 25 mph between 72 and 120 hours before slowing it down to 20 mph between 120 and 144.

[toad strangler]

Significant NW turn 144 through 168 on the Euro.

[TheStormExpert]

500mb pattern features an cutoff low NNE of Bermuda as opposed to over the SE U.S. like on the 12z GFS.

[cycloneye]

Turns WNW,stronger and more slower.

[Gustywind]

A slight weakness caused by TD9 is present around 144hrs. Its not going to recurve it BUT it may be enough to lift the system more to a WNW track and slow it down. Will be interesting to see what the model does at 168hrs.

Slowly strengthening as well...could be a hurricane into the islands...

Interresting analysis. Surely the worst scenario for us in the EC. Hope this one will not verify.

[KWT]

Yep as II said, there was a weakness there caused by TD9, however an upper high is forming to the north of TD9 which may shut the door on both these systems.

Expect a WNW track to continue for a time yet, almost a classic Florida/east coast bend back from the NW motion.

[toad strangler]

WNW or even NW track continues 168 through 192. Well north of the big islands.

[Gustywind]

Turns WNW,stronger and more slower.

That's very too close for comfort Cycloneye .

[LarryWx]

WNW or even NW track continues 168 through 192. Well north of the big islands.

I think this will curve back WNW on this run.

[toad strangler]

216 slows down significantly while still heading NW or a HEAVY N component to a WNW direction. Sitting under some stout HP.

[KWT]

I think the upper set-up where 25L is isn't as conducive as it would be if it took a more southerly track, I'm wondering whether it gets hit by shear caused as the trailing frontal stuff/ULL stuff moves away at 216hrs. Explains the slight weakening that happens between 192-216hrs.

Still near NW...BUT I don't think this will be heading out to sea, at most it will follow NW, but I think an eventual WNW track will resume from there.

Long way to go yet!

[toad strangler]

End of run at 240 and still moving NW with the slower motion. Classic spot to possibly tee off from.

[gatorcane]

Looks like we have big differences between the EC and GFS on the trough/ridge setup over the Western Atlantic during days 8-10, but that can be expected this far out.

[cycloneye]

Turns WNW,stronger and more slower.

http://oi65.tinypic.com/33kyy3c.jpg

That's very too close for comfort Cycloneye .

Is very early my friend to be worried.Let's see how it evolves in the next few days and when it gets closer to the Lesser Antilles,we will prepare or not for a hit.In the meantime let's be happy.

[WeatherEmperor]

12z JMA showing the system approaching the islands for even more model support.

So we have the Gfs, Euro and Jma showing development. Strong model support here.

Canadian and Navgem show nothing.




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