ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Soonercane]

For every step forward this system takes, shear always kicks it back to near square one everyday, I think its appearance this morning could well be its apex in terms of organization, although the very warm warm waters could get it to 45 knot T.S. status or something like that before landfall.

[psyclone]

I see our system remains a mess. color me surprised. I'd be shocked if this amounts to anything more than a big rainmaker. Having said that, the area expecting at least 5" is a hefty chunk of real estate. Timing here is decent as this should be swept out before the holiday weekend with fair weather and a sedate sea state returning by Saturday.

[mobilebay]

Man looking at recon data this thing looks weak as branch water

[sponger]

From NHC,

"Since the cyclone will be moving
over very waters"

Typo's show how busy they are. The forecast track is blending GFS and ECMwF. Looks like they are estimating intensity will be limited by the shear. That is good news to anyone in North FL who hopes to have a chance of power Friday morning.

[Aric Dunn]

convection about to start firing near the southern vort again.

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KWBC 292122
NOAA3 0709A CYCLONE HDOB 27 20160829
211230 2501N 08447W 6955 03204 0065 +113 +054 079015 016 016 000 00
211300 2503N 08447W 6954 03204 0063 +115 +046 080016 016 018 000 00
211330 2505N 08448W 6954 03204 0065 +113 +049 078016 016 018 000 00
211400 2507N 08448W 6956 03203 0066 +114 +039 082017 018 018 000 00
211430 2509N 08448W 6954 03205 0058 +118 +056 081020 021 017 000 00
211500 2512N 08448W 6957 03203 0061 +118 +052 083021 022 017 001 00
211530 2514N 08448W 6956 03205 0062 +117 +061 083021 022 018 000 00
211600 2516N 08449W 6954 03206 0065 +114 +061 083022 023 016 000 00
211630 2518N 08449W 6954 03206 0065 +112 +084 082022 022 017 000 00
211700 2520N 08449W 6955 03207 0066 +111 +084 078023 024 017 000 00
211730 2522N 08449W 6956 03205 0069 +110 +084 076024 024 017 000 00
211800 2524N 08449W 6954 03207 0069 +110 +080 074024 024 018 000 00
211830 2526N 08450W 6958 03205 0066 +114 +078 078022 023 018 000 00
211900 2528N 08450W 6957 03207 0070 +112 +076 080022 023 017 000 00
211930 2531N 08450W 6956 03207 0071 +111 +076 082022 023 016 000 03
212000 2532N 08452W 6957 03207 0070 +113 +063 082022 022 016 000 03
212030 2531N 08454W 6956 03210 0070 +114 +073 082020 021 019 000 00
212100 2529N 08456W 6955 03214 0073 +114 +078 081023 023 018 000 00
212130 2528N 08458W 6954 03217 0072 +114 +081 083022 023 019 000 00
212200 2526N 08500W 6953 03215 0067 +116 +083 081022 022 021 000 00

[drezee]

Recon drop just said 1005mb with 4kt wind...that is legit two mb pressure drop

[HurriGuy]

Is anyone going to realize they are not flying at the same altitude as the other passes? There is a reason the pressures are lower.

[Nimbus]

Recon drop just said 1005mb with 4kt wind...that is legit two mb pressure drop

I thought I saw a couple extrapolated surface pressures of 1002 but I don't know if they were near a "center"

[Aric Dunn]

Is anyone going to realize they are not flying at the same altitude as the other passes? There is a reason the pressures are lower.

the 1005 was a dropsonde at splashdown.

[drezee]

Recon drop just said 1005mb with 4kt wind...that is legit two mb pressure drop

I thought I saw a couple extrapolated surface pressures of 1002 but I don't know if they were near a "center"

That reading is due to calibration at 10K. Disregard it. The dropsonde is the true measure.

[whatacane]

Looks to me that the center is just about on the tip of cuba?

[HurriGuy]

Is anyone going to realize they are not flying at the same altitude as the other passes? There is a reason the pressures are lower.

the 1005 was a dropsonde at splashdown.

where do you find this at?

[Evil Jeremy]

"Given the current forecast, a tropical storm or hurricane watch may
be required for a portion of the Florida Gulf coast as early as
tomorrow morning."

I'm very surprised to see Pasch suggest a possible hurricane watch, given the current intensity forecast. Shows how much uncertainty there is with the forecast.

[drezee]

The last drop was 1007 with 25 kt surface winds...so 1005 is indeed a good number

[Aric Dunn]

Is anyone going to realize they are not flying at the same altitude as the other passes? There is a reason the pressures are lower.

the 1005 was a dropsonde at splashdown.

where do you find this at?

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/

[Aric Dunn]

expect a pretty decent swing west over the next few hours as they rotate and then once the southerly inflow finally is not inhibited we should see consolidation.

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KWBC 292132
NOAA3 0709A CYCLONE HDOB 28 20160829
212230 2524N 08502W 6953 03214 0067 +116 +084 080023 024 024 000 00
212300 2522N 08505W 6953 03213 0065 +116 +085 075025 025 023 000 00
212330 2520N 08507W 6954 03212 0068 +114 +083 075025 026 024 000 00
212400 2518N 08509W 6954 03213 0066 +116 +077 070023 024 024 000 00
212430 2516N 08511W 6953 03213 0066 +117 +071 068024 024 023 000 00
212500 2515N 08513W 6955 03212 0066 +117 +062 071022 023 024 000 00
212530 2513N 08515W 6955 03210 0068 +116 +058 072022 022 023 000 00
212600 2511N 08517W 6954 03211 0067 +117 +049 072021 022 024 000 00
212630 2509N 08519W 6954 03212 0067 +117 +052 075021 021 025 000 00
212700 2507N 08521W 6954 03211 0066 +118 +054 075021 022 025 000 00
212730 2505N 08523W 6954 03211 0066 +117 +054 076022 022 024 000 00
212800 2504N 08525W 6954 03211 0065 +118 +054 076022 022 023 000 00
212830 2502N 08527W 6954 03211 0064 +119 +053 074021 022 024 000 00
212900 2500N 08529W 6954 03210 0064 +120 +043 072020 020 023 000 00
212930 2458N 08531W 6954 03210 0061 +120 +055 067020 021 023 000 00
213000 2456N 08533W 6955 03209 0060 +121 +051 067018 020 021 001 00
213030 2454N 08535W 6955 03208 0059 +122 +050 066019 019 021 000 00
213100 2453N 08537W 6954 03209 0062 +119 +058 068018 018 022 000 00
213130 2451N 08539W 6955 03207 0061 +118 +063 070019 019 022 000 00
213200 2449N 08541W 6954 03208 0060 +119 +062 068019 019 023 000 00

[Soonercane]

I think this may have been around 1002-1003 mb this morning between RECON samplings, looks like it is filling a bit this afternoon.

[johngaltfla]

"Given the current forecast, a tropical storm or hurricane watch may
be required for a portion of the Florida Gulf coast as early as
tomorrow morning."

I'm very surprised to see Pasch suggest a possible hurricane watch, given the current intensity forecast. Shows how much uncertainty there is with the forecast.

IMHO, the NHC is not going to gamble because the population is so much larger on the West Coast of Florida than it was in 2004-2005. If Pinellas, Pasco, and Hillsborough had to evacuate the coastal areas, just ugh.