ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: NINE - Recon

#4861 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Aug 29, 2016 4:44 pm

URNT15 KWBC 292142
NOAA3 0709A CYCLONE HDOB 29 20160829
213230 2447N 08543W 6955 03208 0060 +119 +058 066019 020 021 000 00
213300 2445N 08545W 6954 03208 0058 +119 +081 059018 018 022 001 00
213330 2443N 08547W 6954 03209 0058 +119 +084 055018 019 022 000 00
213400 2442N 08549W 6954 03209 0058 +119 +087 056017 018 020 001 00
213430 2440N 08551W 6955 03207 0058 +118 +086 056018 018 022 000 00
213500 2438N 08553W 6956 03206 0056 +120 +081 058017 018 023 000 00
213530 2436N 08555W 6954 03207 0051 +124 +075 067016 017 022 000 00
213600 2434N 08557W 6954 03207 0052 +124 +074 070018 018 022 000 00
213630 2432N 08559W 6956 03206 0051 +125 +072 071018 019 022 000 00
213700 2431N 08601W 6955 03208 0051 +125 +070 069018 019 020 000 00
213730 2429N 08603W 6955 03207 0053 +124 +069 067019 020 019 000 00
213800 2427N 08605W 6954 03207 0052 +124 +073 065018 018 019 000 00
213830 2425N 08607W 6955 03206 0052 +123 +073 063018 019 019 000 00
213900 2423N 08609W 6956 03205 0052 +123 +073 060019 019 017 000 00
213930 2422N 08611W 6954 03205 0050 +125 +071 059018 018 017 000 00
214000 2420N 08613W 6955 03205 0052 +122 +075 056019 019 019 000 00
214030 2418N 08615W 6956 03203 0049 +124 +078 053019 020 017 000 00
214100 2416N 08617W 6955 03204 0045 +128 +072 053018 018 015 000 00
214130 2414N 08619W 6955 03205 0047 +128 +061 048018 018 016 000 00
214200 2412N 08621W 6956 03205 0048 +127 +062 045018 019 017 000 00
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4862 Postby OntarioEggplant » Mon Aug 29, 2016 4:45 pm

This recon mission is like a horse trying to eat macaroni and cheese with lemon slices in it.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4863 Postby HurricaneEric » Mon Aug 29, 2016 4:47 pm

floridasun78 wrote:rain have make it to south fl after dry sunday going stormy and rainy coming days here south fl the east part feeder bands start felting south fl


There's a distinct tropical moisture smell in the air that brings me back to 2005.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4864 Postby HurriGuy » Mon Aug 29, 2016 4:48 pm

Biggest storms of the day going off at the moment
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4865 Postby Steve » Mon Aug 29, 2016 4:49 pm

Crazy which is sort of expected with 9. I still don't think this makes 87W which is as far west as the NHC takes it. Of course you never know with 9.

To the off topic point on 1998 and Mitch, that's got to be a major worry for October with the majority of the TCHP in an untouched (as of yet) Caribbean. That has easily been the worst disaster in the last 30 years or so to affect North America.
Last edited by Steve on Mon Aug 29, 2016 4:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4866 Postby whatacane » Mon Aug 29, 2016 4:49 pm

Looks to be shifting due south and west you can see the swirl
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4867 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 29, 2016 4:49 pm

by the way recon had flown threw that vort to the north thats exposed and there is nothing there.. surface vort they have been measuring is farther south but not tobe confused with the vort even farther south towards western cuba.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4868 Postby JaxGator » Mon Aug 29, 2016 4:51 pm

New Convection is firing around the vorts that Aric mentioned earlier. Should clear Cuba by tonight or sooner.
Last edited by JaxGator on Mon Aug 29, 2016 4:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4869 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 29, 2016 4:53 pm

why are all the radars always conveniently down when something is near by in other countries ? so weird. 2 days ago all the western cuban radars were up and running now they are not lol.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Recon

#4870 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Aug 29, 2016 4:54 pm

URNT15 KWBC 292152
NOAA3 0709A CYCLONE HDOB 30 20160829
214230 2410N 08623W 6956 03205 0051 +126 +057 044020 020 016 000 00
214300 2409N 08625W 6956 03205 0057 +122 +053 042019 020 016 000 00
214330 2407N 08627W 6956 03206 0057 +121 +062 044018 018 015 000 00
214400 2405N 08629W 6955 03206 0054 +124 +057 043018 018 015 000 00
214430 2403N 08631W 6956 03205 0052 +125 +059 045018 018 016 000 00
214500 2401N 08633W 6956 03206 0052 +124 +074 044017 017 014 000 00
214530 2400N 08635W 6956 03206 0051 +125 +070 044018 019 014 000 00
214600 2358N 08637W 6955 03208 0053 +124 +077 043017 018 013 000 00
214630 2356N 08638W 6955 03208 0054 +123 +084 044018 019 011 000 00
214700 2354N 08640W 6956 03207 0056 +121 +079 041019 020 015 000 00
214730 2352N 08642W 6955 03208 0056 +122 +072 038019 019 013 000 00
214800 2350N 08644W 6956 03207 0053 +127 +044 036018 018 012 000 00
214830 2348N 08646W 6956 03206 0053 +126 +050 036019 019 012 000 00
214900 2347N 08648W 6956 03206 0049 +128 +051 038018 018 013 000 00
214930 2345N 08650W 6957 03204 0050 +128 +046 040019 019 015 000 00
215000 2343N 08652W 6956 03206 0049 +128 +053 040017 017 013 000 00
215030 2341N 08653W 6957 03204 0051 +126 +052 034015 016 014 000 03
215100 2338N 08652W 6956 03204 0051 +125 +053 034014 015 /// /// 03
215130 2338N 08650W 6959 03201 0051 +126 +045 034015 015 013 000 03
215200 2338N 08647W 6958 03201 0052 +125 +046 033013 013 012 000 00
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4871 Postby whatacane » Mon Aug 29, 2016 4:54 pm

does anyone else see that this thing is more south and west of what they are saying?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Recon

#4872 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Aug 29, 2016 4:55 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4873 Postby drewschmaltz » Mon Aug 29, 2016 4:56 pm

Very wet and rainy here in Central Florida. it was patchy yesterday but tonight is different.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4874 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Aug 29, 2016 4:57 pm

So the real center is near 22.6N 84.8W????
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4875 Postby Nimbus » Mon Aug 29, 2016 4:58 pm

What I am seeing is a sheared system with displaced hot towers feeding into the outflow. The hot towers are closer to the surface center than they have been. Looks like the pressure drops of a couple millibars are ahead of the models by ~24 hours.

What is the "effective surface pressure" of a system thats tilted but generating a large volume of outflow?
Last edited by Nimbus on Mon Aug 29, 2016 5:02 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4876 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 29, 2016 4:58 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:So the real center is near 22.6N 84.8W????


just one of them. and the only one with convection.. have to see what happens.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4877 Postby Blinhart » Mon Aug 29, 2016 4:59 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:So the real center is near 22.6N 84.8W????


just one of them. and the only one with convection.. have to see what happens.


Since you are a Pro-Met I will ask if this is the main vort that takes over will this cause a major change in the Models?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4878 Postby whatacane » Mon Aug 29, 2016 5:00 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:So the real center is near 22.6N 84.8W????

I think 22 and 83
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4879 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Aug 29, 2016 5:01 pm

HurricaneEric wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:rain have make it to south fl after dry sunday going stormy and rainy coming days here south fl the east part feeder bands start felting south fl


There's a distinct tropical moisture smell in the air that brings me back to 2005.

2005?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#4880 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 29, 2016 5:01 pm

Blinhart wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:So the real center is near 22.6N 84.8W????


just one of them. and the only one with convection.. have to see what happens.


Since you are a Pro-Met I will ask if this is the main vort that takes over will this cause a major change in the Models?


I am not a pro met. but thanks :P
to answer your question: its quite possible how much is unknown. have to wait and see how this evolves.
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