ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

There's the MLC over Western Cuba, about 100 miles south or so of the so-called center!

[BucMan2]

If there was a center relocation to the south what with that due to the intensity if the storm more to the east?

[HurriGuy]

Guys...haven't we learned???

Anything we think it is going to do, just think the opposite.

[Recurve]

Center relocating south

How much south? Missing forecast points a bit or a completely new center?

I know we don't have the pressure setups of Charley, or Wilma's strong cold front. Those two are the hallmarks of scary track and intensity change, so I'm looking for comparisons.
Have to keep one eye open for worst-case. People can get caught under 15 feet of water in Tampa Bay and barrier islands ....if the worst RI happen's within hours of landfall. Not saying that's likely, just scaring myself awake is all.

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KWBC 292312
NOAA3 0709A CYCLONE HDOB 38 20160829
230230 2300N 08412W 6960 03187 0060 +105 +072 165009 010 021 000 00
230300 2259N 08414W 6959 03187 0056 +108 +070 161006 007 018 000 00
230330 2258N 08416W 6961 03184 0051 +112 +066 088003 004 021 000 00
230400 2257N 08418W 6959 03186 0052 +112 +065 059003 003 021 000 00
230430 2256N 08420W 6939 03212 0060 +103 +075 051005 006 021 000 00
230500 2255N 08422W 6958 03192 0072 +095 +086 029001 002 020 000 00
230530 2254N 08424W 6956 03194 0067 +100 +087 102001 003 021 000 00
230600 2253N 08426W 6953 03196 0065 +101 +091 238003 005 017 001 00
230630 2252N 08428W 6968 03181 0061 +107 +090 203003 003 019 000 00
230700 2251N 08430W 6965 03183 0056 +110 +089 174003 004 019 000 00
230730 2250N 08432W 6966 03182 0060 +106 +090 161005 006 017 000 00
230800 2249N 08434W 6967 03181 0059 +107 +086 168004 005 016 000 00
230830 2248N 08436W 6966 03181 0061 +106 +077 212003 004 018 000 00
230900 2247N 08438W 6968 03179 0062 +105 +075 203005 006 018 000 00
230930 2246N 08440W 6968 03177 0058 +108 +067 231002 003 018 001 00
231000 2245N 08442W 6967 03179 0059 +107 +071 275007 009 016 000 00
231030 2244N 08444W 6968 03178 0056 +110 +068 280006 008 015 000 00
231100 2243N 08446W 6968 03177 0054 +110 +070 306008 008 014 000 00
231130 2241N 08448W 6968 03176 0057 +107 +079 305009 011 016 000 00
231200 2240N 08450W 6968 03179 0062 +104 +082 303013 013 016 000 00

[hurricanefloyd5]

Guys...haven't we learned???

Anything we think it is going to do, just think the opposite.

Oh boy here is a Texas storm

[SEASON_CANCELED]

It's either gone or south.

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KWBC 292322
NOAA3 0709A CYCLONE HDOB 39 20160829
231230 2239N 08452W 6968 03178 0061 +106 +080 304013 013 017 000 00
231300 2238N 08453W 6968 03181 0065 +105 +080 290013 014 015 000 00
231330 2236N 08455W 6968 03180 0058 +111 +075 303011 012 017 000 00
231400 2235N 08457W 6967 03183 0064 +103 +095 281012 013 016 000 00
231430 2233N 08458W 6969 03178 0067 +100 +096 273011 012 016 000 00
231500 2232N 08459W 6961 03184 0067 +099 +096 271016 017 017 000 00
231530 2230N 08501W 6957 03194 0066 +100 +088 279015 016 017 000 00
231600 2228N 08502W 6953 03195 0062 +102 +092 279013 014 016 000 00
231630 2226N 08503W 6960 03187 0068 +098 +094 273011 013 016 000 00
231700 2225N 08504W 6956 03194 0061 +104 +091 270010 011 013 000 03
231730 2223N 08504W 6958 03194 0062 +105 +088 271010 011 018 001 00
231800 2220N 08505W 6957 03195 0060 +109 +077 265009 010 016 002 00
231830 2219N 08506W 6962 03187 0056 +110 +081 284010 011 017 001 00
231900 2219N 08508W 6968 03181 0062 +105 +086 305012 012 014 001 03
231930 2220N 08509W 6970 03176 0062 +105 +094 305013 013 014 001 03
232000 2222N 08509W 6964 03187 0066 +102 +095 298015 015 012 001 00
232030 2224N 08509W 6959 03191 0061 +106 +089 303015 015 016 000 00
232100 2226N 08508W 6961 03188 0057 +110 +083 304013 014 014 000 00
232130 2228N 08508W 6961 03188 0061 +108 +071 306013 013 013 001 00
232200 2230N 08508W 6959 03190 0060 +106 +085 304012 012 012 000 00

[Dean4Storms]

With the mid level trough expected to develop over the SE USA which in turn causes TD9 forecast thus far to be out in the central Gulf turning it north and then eventually NE. I can't help but wonder if it remains moving due west at this further south latitude and is closer to the north coast of the Yucatan it just might not get pulled north. From there who knows!

[Aric Dunn]

something definitely down there.

[whatacane]

something definitely down there.

mlc looks 23 83

[Soonercane]

something definitely down there.

Would the main impacts of a southern location be a weaker storm (it would spend more time near the Cuban landmass before it is spirited away by the eastern trough), and a landfall further to the south/east (e.g. more in the Tampa area than the Big Bend area)?

[whatacane]

something definitely down there.

mlc looks 23 83

oops 22 84

[GCANE]

Massive tower firing off

[tarheelprogrammer]

So, did recon find a new center?

[GCANE]

Massive tower firing off

Actually looks like two simultaneous

[robbielyn]

Aric answered this question earlier saying the further south it was the harder for the trough to pull it up so probably stay more west. than projected.

[Dean4Storms]

Does anyone know if there are mountains along the coast over western Cuba there?

[Recurve]

So I'm watching recon on Google earth and even with all the wind barbs and data, I'm not sure what's going on. Untrained eye.
I did see the strongest winds were NE of the ?center, at 33 knots.

[Extratropical94]

URNT15 KWBC 292332
NOAA3 0709A CYCLONE HDOB 40 20160829
232230 2232N 08508W 6961 03188 0057 +109 +078 298010 011 012 001 00
232300 2234N 08508W 6960 03191 0056 +112 +076 284010 010 012 000 00
232330 2237N 08508W 6960 03191 0057 +110 +082 274012 012 011 000 00
232400 2239N 08507W 6958 03193 0059 +108 +086 291013 013 011 000 00
232430 2241N 08507W 6961 03188 0058 +106 +099 303013 014 012 000 00
232500 2243N 08507W 6962 03187 0057 +106 +105 297013 014 018 000 00
232530 2245N 08507W 6960 03186 0051 +110 +094 287014 016 022 000 00
232600 2247N 08507W 6958 03189 0049 +111 +107 274014 017 024 001 00
232630 2249N 08507W 6965 03183 0050 +113 +087 278010 010 016 002 00
232700 2251N 08507W 6968 03179 0046 +116 +088 278010 010 019 001 00
232730 2253N 08507W 6958 03190 0051 +114 +073 280009 010 016 001 00
232800 2255N 08507W 6958 03193 0055 +112 +074 276010 010 016 002 00
232830 2257N 08507W 6957 03192 0054 +108 +106 288013 014 018 002 00
232900 2300N 08507W 6958 03192 0055 +110 +083 288014 015 016 004 00
232930 2302N 08507W 6957 03190 0054 +113 +062 292013 014 014 001 00
233000 2304N 08507W 6958 03193 0057 +111 +070 287013 014 012 000 00
233030 2306N 08507W 6957 03192 0056 +111 +067 295011 011 012 000 00
233100 2308N 08507W 6958 03192 0057 +109 +074 295008 009 010 001 00
233130 2310N 08507W 6958 03191 0054 +111 +072 284007 008 009 001 00
233200 2312N 08508W 6958 03190 0054 +112 +073 283007 008 008 000 00