ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nikki]

It seems to be moving WSW... strange. I don't see a hint of a recurve right now.

Recurve isn't supposed to happen for another 36 hours.

It is suppose to be moving WNW already and it is moving more WSW

The NHC has it moving WNW at 5 mph, but I've seen a lot of people saying it looks to be moving WSW. This little storm has a mind of its own. Lol!

[bamajammer4eva]

did he issue a TorCon number?

Yup.

5, the highest.

good catch

forbes is good...5 means business and not surprising for anyone on the right side of a land falling trop system

It seems that normally spc gives tornado threat from a tropical storm in 'marginal' category so maybe the trough that's going to pick this up adds to the tornado threat for those people who will be east of the storm.

[HurriGuy]

In my opinion, there is no indication this is drifting WNW.

I also think if there was a center at 24N before, I am suspecting there is not one there now looking at the last few frames of visible.

I would not rule out that this has opened back or it has turned to a more broad circulation. I think there is a reason recon stopped with VDMs.

[NDG]

It seems to be moving WSW... strange. I don't see a hint of a recurve right now.

Recurve isn't supposed to happen for another 36 hours.

It is suppose to be moving WNW already and it is moving more WSW

As I mentioned earlier, 18z HWRF picked that up really well of moving W to WSW during the night tonight until the MLC moves north tomorrow.

[jlauderdal]

5 is not the highest torcon. it's a 1-10 scale

My bad, he said the highest, but another poster caught the rest where he said "the highest issued since June".

I did not get to hear the entire section of that due to a phone call coming in.

what was torcon for the indiana outbreak?

[johngaltfla]

It seems that normally spc gives tornado threat from a tropical storm in 'marginal' category so maybe the trough that's going to pick this up adds to the tornado threat for those people who will be east of the storm.

Actually it's the friction of land from the tropical system coming ashore. I'm not going to get into the dynamics but we see dozens of tornadoes, mostly F0-F1 when a storm comes ashore. They drop then pick up and if this storm behaves as forecast, I'll try to get some photos for you as I am on the forecast east side of the storm; from a safe distance of course.

[TheAustinMan]

After looking at the dropsonde data it appears to me that the vorticity seen towards the south by recon is still a mid-level, 700mb vorticity, with a lower-level 850mb vorticity also displaced from the surface circulation identified by reconnaissance. I've marked my thinking below. NOT OFFICIAL.

[Dean4Storms]

Much better organization taking place right now. MLC is almost over the Center and the Outflow aloft is improving in an Anti-Cyclonic flow indicative a a 200mb high getting established on top. Add in the fact this is sitting over 85F+ bath water and this could really deepen tonight and tomorrw better than the models have been seeing! Just my take!

[TropicalSailor]

Scheduled to fly into Panama City Beach from the north Thu AM. I'm hoping for a good view of this thing as it goes by east of me.

[stormreader]

5 is not the highest torcon. it's a 1-10 scale

But 5 is a solid rating for gulf coast states. Trying to remember, the rating refers to chances of having a tornado within 50 miles??? of a given location within the warning area. Ratings of 7 or higher are more often found in the central US during tornado season. Wish I could remember the exact meaning of the scale. But those higher numbers will definitely get your attention if you really ponder on the chances of having a tornado near your location.

[hipshot]

Scheduled to fly into Panama City Beach from the north Thu AM. I'm hoping for a good view of this thing as it goes by east of me.

You better hope so. Be careful, this thing can go anywhere at this point.

[jlauderdal]

It seems that normally spc gives tornado threat from a tropical storm in 'marginal' category so maybe the trough that's going to pick this up adds to the tornado threat for those people who will be east of the storm.

Actually it's the friction of land from the tropical system coming ashore. I'm not going to get into the dynamics but we see dozens of tornadoes, mostly F0-F1 when a storm comes ashore. They drop then pick up and if this storm behaves as forecast, I'll try to get some photos for you as I am on the forecast east side of the storm; from a safe distance of course.

elbow room on fll beach was hit about 15 years ago from an fo tornado from a spiral band...minimal damage...bar remained open

[TropicalSailor]

Scheduled to fly into Panama City Beach from the north Thu AM. I'm hoping for a good view of this thing as it goes by east of me.

You better hope so. Be careful, this thing can go anywhere at this point.

When I say "fly" I mean commercially and I'm just riding so I'm sure the airline will make that call.

I'd love insight via PM from any commercial pilots on the chances of my flight getting canceled if there are any here.

[johngaltfla]

It seems that normally spc gives tornado threat from a tropical storm in 'marginal' category so maybe the trough that's going to pick this up adds to the tornado threat for those people who will be east of the storm.

Actually it's the friction of land from the tropical system coming ashore. I'm not going to get into the dynamics but we see dozens of tornadoes, mostly F0-F1 when a storm comes ashore. They drop then pick up and if this storm behaves as forecast, I'll try to get some photos for you as I am on the forecast east side of the storm; from a safe distance of course.

elbow room on fll beach was hit about 15 years ago from an fo tornado from a spiral band...minimal damage...bar remained open

Nothing like leaving a bar after a F0 and seeing dead fish on your car from a waterspout. Only in Florida.

[sponger]

Lets be glad for shear but i do not recall anti cyclone talk the last few days. Anyone have thoughts on what this could do to final strength? Was it calculated into the forecast or a new player?

[stormreader]

I'm definitely waiting on the forecast N and then NE movement. I know that based on model input that it is the most likely solution. But I'm more old school. The forecast depends on a very early season trough (like the one that picked up Charley on '04). But I think the storm is a little further south than the original forecast, and it's my understanding (am I wrong??) that some of the components that make up the model ensembles still cling to a solution where the trough by-passes the storm and riffing begins to build back in along the NE Gulf Coast. Also the storm is not so well defined at this time, making it somewhat less susceptible to the upper level influences of an approaching trough. So, I'll wait to see the actual pick-up, or to see if model consensus begins to weaken.

[TropicalSailor]

I'm definitely waiting on the forecast N and then NE movement. I know that based on model input that it is the most likely solution. But I'm more old school. The forecast depends on a very early season trough (like the one that picked up Charley on '04). But I think the storm is a little further south than the original forecast, and it's my understanding (am I wrong??) that some of the components that make up the model ensembles still cling to a solution where the trough by-passes the storm and riffing begins to build back in along the NE Gulf Coast. Also the storm is not so well defined at this time, making it somewhat less susceptible to the upper level influences of an approaching trough. So, I'll wait to see the actual pick-up, or to see if model consensus begins to weaken.

With that thinking in mind which way would that alter your track?

[GeneratorPower]

Actually it's the friction of land from the tropical system coming ashore. I'm not going to get into the dynamics but we see dozens of tornadoes, mostly F0-F1 when a storm comes ashore. They drop then pick up and if this storm behaves as forecast, I'll try to get some photos for you as I am on the forecast east side of the storm; from a safe distance of course.

elbow room on fll beach was hit about 15 years ago from an fo tornado from a spiral band...minimal damage...bar remained open

Nothing like leaving a bar after a F0 and seeing dead fish on your car from a waterspout. Only in Florida.

This quote is now on my all time best list.

[HurriGuy]

Lets be glad for shear but i do not recall anti cyclone talk the last few days. Anyone have thoughts on what this could do to final strength? Was it calculated into the forecast or a new player?

Yes. I have speaking of this for the last 4 days. Largely due to the 3 ULLs spinning in close proximity that causes the anti-cyclonic flow

It is the upper level pattern that the NHC speaks of in every discussion when they refer to the upper level winds becoming more favorable.

[indianforever]

I see talk of possibly missing the trough but what location would it have to get to miss it and continue west?