ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5021 Postby sponger » Mon Aug 29, 2016 7:52 pm

HurriGuy wrote:
sponger wrote:Lets be glad for shear but i do not recall anti cyclone talk the last few days. Anyone have thoughts on what this could do to final strength? Was it calculated into the forecast or a new player?


Yes. I have speaking of this for the last 4 days. Largely due to the 3 ULLs spinning in close proximity that causes the anti-cyclonic flow

It is the upper level pattern that the NHC speaks of in every discussion when they refer to the upper level winds becoming more favorable.


Lessoning shear we have heard plenty of. An anti cyclone forming over the top is not something I have heard predicted.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5022 Postby stormreader » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:01 pm

TropicalSailor wrote:
stormreader wrote:I'm definitely waiting on the forecast N and then NE movement. I know that based on model input that it is the most likely solution. But I'm more old school. The forecast depends on a very early season trough (like the one that picked up Charley on '04). But I think the storm is a little further south than the original forecast, and it's my understanding (am I wrong??) that some of the components that make up the model ensembles still cling to a solution where the trough by-passes the storm and riffing begins to build back in along the NE Gulf Coast. Also the storm is not so well defined at this time, making it somewhat less susceptible to the upper level influences of an approaching trough. So, I'll wait to see the actual pick-up, or to see if model consensus begins to weaken.


With that thinking in mind which way would that alter your track?

First of all, have to say again that the present model forecasts are definitely most likely. But if they don't pan out, I think you would have to assume increased ridging along the Fl Gulf Coast, allowing the system to move first WNW and then maybe between WNW and NW to near the upper Texas coast, perhaps a more northerly component near landfall to near the TX-La border. That would be the alternate scenario, I think.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5023 Postby psyclone » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:03 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
johngaltfla wrote:
psyclone wrote:5 is not the highest torcon. it's a 1-10 scale


My bad, he said the highest, but another poster caught the rest where he said "the highest issued since June".

I did not get to hear the entire section of that due to a phone call coming in.
what was torcon for the indiana outbreak?

2
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5024 Postby HurriGuy » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:04 pm

sponger wrote:
HurriGuy wrote:
sponger wrote:Lets be glad for shear but i do not recall anti cyclone talk the last few days. Anyone have thoughts on what this could do to final strength? Was it calculated into the forecast or a new player?


Yes. I have speaking of this for the last 4 days. Largely due to the 3 ULLs spinning in close proximity that causes the anti-cyclonic flow

It is the upper level pattern that the NHC speaks of in every discussion when they refer to the upper level winds becoming more favorable.


Lessoning shear we have heard plenty of. An anti cyclone forming over the top is not something I have heard predicted.


If the storm can get under the anti-cyclonic flow in a favorable position, there is hardly any sheer hence the lessening of sheer you have been hearing about. If the storm is on the outer skirts of that flow, then the conditions are not favorable due to the sheer because the flow of the upper high and ULL nudging together becomes very strong aloft .

The anti-cyclonic flow also helps ventilate the system helping remove air causing potential strengthening.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5025 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:07 pm

if it does end up reforming south where south where recon was showing other vorts i would expect a west shift in the models or at least a delayed landfall.

Image
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5026 Postby JaxGator » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:08 pm

sponger wrote:
HurriGuy wrote:
sponger wrote:Lets be glad for shear but i do not recall anti cyclone talk the last few days. Anyone have thoughts on what this could do to final strength? Was it calculated into the forecast or a new player?


Yes. I have speaking of this for the last 4 days. Largely due to the 3 ULLs spinning in close proximity that causes the anti-cyclonic flow

It is the upper level pattern that the NHC speaks of in every discussion when they refer to the upper level winds becoming more favorable.


Lessoning shear we have heard plenty of. An anti cyclone forming over the top is not something I have heard predicted.


Does anybody know if a anti-cyclone was shown on the models up until landfall? Would that explain what was shown HWRF runs intensity wise? Just curious.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5027 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:09 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:if it does end up reforming south where south where recon was showing other vorts i would expect a west shift in the models or at least a delayed landfall.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_09.gif


Why wouldn't it just recurve further south into the FL peninsula, say closer to Tampa?
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:09 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5028 Postby robbielyn » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:09 pm

Well it looks like its organizing. It seems like a TD getting that intensifying "shape". but theres a strong ULL bearing down in s georgia and has given us in fl the nice breezes and showers. There is the western gulf with intense dry air moving eastward so I wouldn't be surprised if it gets a little more organized then only makes it to TS cuz its got too many enemies on all sides. So thats a good thing cuz I can't think of anyone thats needs anything or wants anything too terribly strong. We could use the rain at least in hernando county.We could handle it better than LA. Lets hope that trough picks it up and brings it NE. If it insists on making a landfall and it stays weak, we are in better position to handle a weak storm.
Last edited by robbielyn on Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5029 Postby indianforever » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:10 pm

When should we start to see it start moving north?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5030 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:10 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:if it does end up reforming south where south where recon was showing other vorts i would expect a west shift in the models or at least a delayed landfall.

Image


A delayed landfall would be farther south since the trough would have more time to come in?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5031 Postby sponger » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:11 pm

HurriGuy wrote:
sponger wrote:
HurriGuy wrote:
Yes. I have speaking of this for the last 4 days. Largely due to the 3 ULLs spinning in close proximity that causes the anti-cyclonic flow

It is the upper level pattern that the NHC speaks of in every discussion when they refer to the upper level winds becoming more favorable.


Lessoning shear we have heard plenty of. An anti cyclone forming over the top is not something I have heard predicted.


If the storm can get under the anti-cyclonic flow in a favorable position, there is hardly any sheer hence the lessening of sheer you have been hearing about. If the storm is on the outer skirts of that flow, then the conditions are not favorable due to the sheer because the flow of the upper high and ULL nudging together becomes very strong aloft .

The anti-cyclonic flow also helps ventilate the system helping remove air causing potential strengthening.


So an anti cyclone is not a feature, just the result of other features causing an anti cyclone circulation over the storm?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5032 Postby SunnyThoughts » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:11 pm

indianforever wrote:When should we start to see it start moving north?


I think 24-36 hours, per the models anyway.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5033 Postby Blinhart » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:12 pm

indianforever wrote:When should we start to see it start moving north?


Oh about 12 hours ago.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5034 Postby johngaltfla » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:12 pm

Between this storm and 92L popping up, I'm beat and best rest up in case this storm deepens tomorrow. Add in Hawaii about to get shellacked twice and I'd say the NHC is earning their salary this month. Good job there and good job S2K handling this. See y'all at 0430.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5035 Postby HurriGuy » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:12 pm

indianforever wrote:When should we start to see it start moving north?

There is too much uncertainty in my opinion to determine when this will start moving north.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5036 Postby Blinhart » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:13 pm

johngaltfla wrote:Between this storm and 92L popping up, I'm beat and best rest up in case this storm deepens tomorrow. Add in Hawaii about to get shellacked twice and I'd say the NHC is earning their salary this month. Good job there and good job S2K handling this. See y'all at 0430.


Yeah when was the last time Hawaii was projected to be hit by 2 hurricanes with in a week of each other?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5037 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:15 pm

:D


Blinhart wrote:
indianforever wrote:When should we start to see it start moving north?


Oh about 12 hours ago.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5038 Postby sponger » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:15 pm

Looking at the spaghetti runs, the NHC is south of consensus. Perhaps a tad shift north at 11? May wait to see some confirmation with the next run.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5039 Postby bamajammer4eva » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:16 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:if it does end up reforming south where south where recon was showing other vorts i would expect a west shift in the models or at least a delayed landfall.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_09.gif


Why wouldn't it just recurve further south into the FL peninsula, say closer to Tampa?


Thats what I thought if the storm relocated south just move the storm icon and take the cone south with it
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5040 Postby sponger » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:17 pm

Stormcenter wrote::D


Blinhart wrote:
indianforever wrote:When should we start to see it start moving north?


Oh about 12 hours ago.

Not until tomorrow afternoon.
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