ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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caneman
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5041 Postby caneman » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:18 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:if it does end up reforming south where south where recon was showing other vorts i would expect a west shift in the models or at least a delayed landfall.

Image


A delayed landfall would be farther south since the trough would have more time to come in?


I'm pretty sure you are correct. Depends how deep the trough is I guess.
Last edited by caneman on Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5042 Postby Emmett_Brown » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:22 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:if it does end up reforming south where south where recon was showing other vorts i would expect a west shift in the models or at least a delayed landfall.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_09.gif


Why wouldn't it just recurve further south into the FL peninsula, say closer to Tampa?


I agree. I noticed last night, for example, the NHC corrected their track southward slightly to account for initial further S position at the time. So my thinking is also that a further S position would mean it might take longer to meet the trough, and take a right a little south. But its hard to say; I guess it all depends on speed and orientation of the trough. As for the track at the moment, I notice most models shifted slightly left tonight. Its amazing that we still have a long time to go... landfall not until Thursday. Lots of wobble watching left!
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Re: ATL: NINE - Recon Discussion

#5043 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:25 pm

Extra props to recon today. The current mission and crew have been in the storm for what has to be 7 hours now, dealing with multiple centers and all that jazz.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5044 Postby sponger » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:28 pm

Emmett_Brown wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:if it does end up reforming south where south where recon was showing other vorts i would expect a west shift in the models or at least a delayed landfall.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_09.gif


Why wouldn't it just recurve further south into the FL peninsula, say closer to Tampa?


I agree. I noticed last night, for example, the NHC corrected their track southward slightly to account for initial further S position at the time. So my thinking is also that a further S position would mean it might take longer to meet the trough, and take a right a little south. But its hard to say; I guess it all depends on speed and orientation of the trough. As for the track at the moment, I notice most models shifted slightly left tonight. Its amazing that we still have a long time to go... landfall not until Thursday. Lots of wobble watching left!



Agreed! Although we are well within the impressive 72 hour cone, they really have not had a solid stacked circulation to forecast. I suspect this will get better organized tomorrow and have been waiting for tomorrows 8 o clock advisory as being real close to final track.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5045 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:35 pm

Clouds on western side clearing out, we may be able to discern whether the LLC is still there or not in the next couple of hours

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5046 Postby Blinhart » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:35 pm

Blinhart wrote:
indianforever wrote:When should we start to see it start moving north?


Oh about 12 hours ago.


The reason I said that if you look at the original track the NHC put out when this was designated a TD, if you look at where this system should be compared to where it is now, this system is about 150 miles or more SW of where it should of been.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5047 Postby tropicwatch » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:37 pm

Last edited by tropicwatch on Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5048 Postby Steve » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:39 pm

Here is a caution for the next at least couple of days on the Peninsula. Look how the clouds are showing banding roughly horizontal E-W across the state. Most areas are fairly well drained down there, but everybody in Central and South Florida know that it sometimes rains so hard you can't see out your windshield. Flash flooding occurs. Be alert if one is issued near you.

Here in SELA and in Southern Mississippi there are coastal flood watches up, but that's probably the main deal.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5049 Postby stormreader » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:39 pm

If anything, does look like slow W movement at this time. As stated by others, perhaps a reformation slightly further south.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5050 Postby robbielyn » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:39 pm

Unless it creates its own environment I think it will end up ingesting that dry air down the road. Oops! Mods will you please remove the second post. Thank you?
Last edited by robbielyn on Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5051 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:44 pm

Shape better. Just needs to stack.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5052 Postby TexasF6 » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:44 pm

The models initialization point was wrong. Storm is way WSW of those plot beginnings. Where's this big trough?





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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5053 Postby tropicwatch » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:44 pm

Too much wine Robbie? Quoting yourself. :uarrow:
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5054 Postby tropicwatch » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:45 pm

TexasF6 wrote:The models initialization point was wrong. Storm is way WSW of those plot beginnings. Where's this big trough?





Follow NHC for real storm details.


Where do you think they are getting the NE turn from?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5055 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:46 pm

TexasF6 wrote:The models initialization point was wrong. Storm is way WSW of those plot beginnings. Where's this big trough?





Follow NHC for real storm details.


It is also possible the LLC is might be rotating around a larger circulation that has formed further to the SE and hence why it looks to be moving WSW. Admittedly, I can't locate the LLC with all the debris clouds.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5056 Postby robbielyn » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:48 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:Too much wine Robbie? Quoting yourself. :uarrow:

You know too much wine would be a real good excuse lol! Problem is I don't drink. So I don't have a good excuse either. nah I wanted to add "down the road" to my previous post and hit " vs edit.
Last edited by robbielyn on Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5057 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:49 pm

gatorcane wrote:
TexasF6 wrote:The models initialization point was wrong. Storm is way WSW of those plot beginnings. Where's this big trough?





Follow NHC for real storm details.


It is also possible the LLC is might be rotating around a larger circulation that has formed further to the SE and hence why it looks to be moving WSW. Admittedly, I can't locate the LLC with all the debris clouds.


Yeah it was pretty apparent that multiple vorts were in there rotating around. Will take much more sustained convection to consolidate them.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5058 Postby drewschmaltz » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:51 pm

Yucatan peninsula is starting to see that heavy land-surface convection. And, it looks like the MLC is just about to enter the Yucatan channel (I'm seeing this right, right?). Any thoughts on how this interaction plays out overnight?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5059 Postby waterworld » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:57 pm

I do not think that this disturbance will make any move northwest let alone north until it's west of 87. This disturbance only cares
for water temp at this point. and that's where it's headed.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5060 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 29, 2016 8:58 pm

pretty clear from a couple hours ago when recon was there. multiple vorts orientated ne to sw. given the rotating presently of the northern vort heading west to wsw and the convection being further south. I would presume do to some angular energy that the southern part of the rotation would likely take over.

Image
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