ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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TropicalSailor
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5221 Postby TropicalSailor » Tue Aug 30, 2016 6:51 am

caneman wrote:I think most people are getting bored and frustrated with this thing, I know I am. As my Dad use to say, s#it or get off the pot :wink:


I reached that point a week ago.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5222 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 30, 2016 6:54 am

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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5223 Postby drezee » Tue Aug 30, 2016 6:56 am

Are you kidding me? Recon leaves early then the Satellite goes out since 1030z...great...don't need another Opal situation...not forecasting that of course
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5224 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 30, 2016 7:00 am

I had been saying that development chances won't really increase until this afternoon/evening. Models are in even better agreement today on a NE turn tonight/Wed AM with landfall about midway between Apalachicola & Tampa.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5225 Postby GCANE » Tue Aug 30, 2016 7:02 am

I think we are seeing the worst of the western dry air now.

Here is a GFS Skew-T at a point in it at 06Z

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scr ... .0000W.png

Here is the same point 24 hours out

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scr ... .0000W.png
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5226 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 30, 2016 7:05 am

Oh geez, I didn't realize sat pics aren't updating.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5227 Postby Emmett_Brown » Tue Aug 30, 2016 7:07 am

wxman57 wrote:I had been saying that development chances won't really increase until this afternoon/evening. Models are in even better agreement today on a NE turn tonight/Wed AM with landfall about midway between Apalachicola & Tampa.


Cool. WX, what changes do you see happening later today that would trigger more development? (just learning, hence the question), Thanks
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5228 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 30, 2016 7:09 am

*Length of Outage:* TBD

*Details/Specifics of Change: *GOES Controller reports: GOES-13
(GOES-East) Star tracker 3 has failed. The schedule has been paused, so
there are no GOES-13 images available. Engineers have been contacted.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5229 Postby Emmett_Brown » Tue Aug 30, 2016 7:12 am

tolakram wrote:*Length of Outage:* TBD

*Details/Specifics of Change: *GOES Controller reports: GOES-13
(GOES-East) Star tracker 3 has failed. The schedule has been paused, so
there are no GOES-13 images available. Engineers have been contacted.


Great Scott!!
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5230 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 30, 2016 7:13 am

I hope Star Tracker is something on the ground, otherwise not sure why they would call engineers. :)
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5231 Postby cdavis6287 » Tue Aug 30, 2016 7:24 am

I see some of the models shifting more west across Florida than the original plot for land fall around the Cedar Key area. Any reasoning in this or will the models go back a forth until it gets closer? Thanks
Last edited by cdavis6287 on Tue Aug 30, 2016 7:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5232 Postby xcool22 » Tue Aug 30, 2016 7:24 am

tolakram wrote:I hope Star Tracker is something on the ground, otherwise not sure why they would call engineers. :)


GOES-East back up work now :ggreen:
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5233 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 30, 2016 7:31 am

interesting.. finally looks to be deepening..
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5234 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 30, 2016 7:31 am

Convection continues to expand this morning but the LL continues to be close to the 24th latitude and 87W.

Image
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Re: ATL: NINE - Recon

#5235 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Tue Aug 30, 2016 7:40 am

Radar from earlier NOAA P-3 mission. 12:34am EDT through 7:32am EDT on August 30th, 2016.



Link: https://youtu.be/6DwcSkR-T3k

Credit: NOAA-AOC

And image from completed NOAA mission:

Image
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5236 Postby caneman » Tue Aug 30, 2016 7:42 am

NHC says it could start strengthening later today so we'll see.
Last edited by caneman on Tue Aug 30, 2016 7:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5237 Postby GCANE » Tue Aug 30, 2016 7:42 am

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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5238 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 30, 2016 7:45 am

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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5239 Postby hohnywx » Tue Aug 30, 2016 7:51 am

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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5240 Postby abajan » Tue Aug 30, 2016 7:54 am

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service. ...

The disclaimer is no longer required: viewtopic.php?f=37&t=118012
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