ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5281 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:26 am

sponger wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:Not sure what to make of this system. It looks to be building more westward.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html


its expanding in size but IR can can be deceiving as to actual movement and center location...it will start to turn


Huge blow up in convection. I believe we have a tropical storm now!


maybe, recon was in there earlier and didnt find enough wind...it takes more than a bunch of hot towers...its looking better on sat

or flow in SE Florida has went from SE yesterday, southerly last night and now ssw...should be real easy to make rain shortly as we have some heating taking place
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5282 Postby chaser1 » Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:28 am

Once again, impressive bursting of convection. I do agree that if recon were presently sampling the N.E. quad there might be adequate sustained winds to warrant an upgrade. On the other hand, we have yet to see a large increase in convection that was sustained and not knocked down from shear thus far. Upper shear now appears more southerly so this might be a little less destructive especially as the net shear is slighly reduced even further by the advertised northward component of motion by later tonight or tomm.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5283 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:29 am


That is, despite the incorrect labeling, an image from yesterday. The center is nowhere near 84W.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5284 Postby chaser1 » Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:34 am

jlauderdal wrote:
sponger wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
its expanding in size but IR can can be deceiving as to actual movement and center location...it will start to turn


Huge blow up in convection. I believe we have a tropical storm now!


maybe, recon was in there earlier and didnt find enough wind...it takes more than a bunch of hot towers...its looking better on sat

or flow in SE Florida has went from SE yesterday, southerly last night and now ssw...should be real easy to make rain shortly as we have some heating taking place


jlauderdale, i'd guess that you should at least get some nice tropical fast moving squalls moving up from the south by early afternoon with this moist flow down there. Sorry to say though, you might have to find some gulf side piers to catch much more than that with this one :wink:
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5285 Postby FLLurker32 » Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:34 am

I've been lurking this board this past week. I live in Marion county, FL so I've been watching this carefully. IF this were to strengthen it would be a nightmare for those of us living in this region. FL hurricane dry spell aside, we've never been an area to receive many tropical storms/hurricanes. I grew up here and could probably count all of the ones of any significance on one hand. We typically only receive a few bands. People inland are not as prepared as those on the coast. Most here do not own generators and we have a lot of tree overgrowth. Warnings are essential and it doesn't look like people here are going to get much of one if intensification occurs. For that reason alone, I hope it stays a weak tropical storm.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5286 Postby robbielyn » Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:35 am

I hate to say it but if you look on water vapor this storm is still being sheared. It's not going to do much I am afraid.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5287 Postby benh316 » Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:40 am

robbielyn wrote:I hate to say it but if you look on water vapor this storm is still being sheared. It's not going to do much I am afraid.


Wouldn't this be a good thing for the people in the region? :double:
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5288 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:42 am

It would be great news and by the way it does not look organized at all right now.


benh316 wrote:
robbielyn wrote:I hate to say it but if you look on water vapor this storm is still being sheared. It's not going to do much I am afraid.


Wouldn't this be a good thing for the people in the region? :double:
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5289 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:45 am

not looking forward to having to take down my gazebo cover after work tonight. it was such a b*tch to put up in the first place! But if I don't, I think this little blow would take it down the street. ;)
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Re: ATL: NINE - Advisories

#5290 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:48 am

...TORRENTIAL RAINS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN CUBA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH LIKELY TO BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 87.2W
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM W OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
1000 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

Deep convection once again increased in association with the
cyclone this morning, and satellite images show that very heavy
rains continue over portions of western Cuba, where significant
flooding is likely occurring. However, the overall organization of
the system has not changed much since last night. Dvorak T-numbers
from TAFB and SAB have not increased, so the intensity is kept at 30
kt for this advisory. Another NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the cyclone this afternoon to see if the
depression has become a tropical storm. The dynamical guidance
indicates that the vertical shear over the system will decrease
slightly during the next day or so but, starting around 48 hours,
westerly shear is forecast to begin increasing. This should limit
strengthening while the system approaches northern Florida. The
official intensity forecast was lowered slightly around 48 hours, in
agreement with the latest intensity model consensus. At the
moment, there is no intensity guidance that makes this system a
hurricane prior to landfall.

Visible and microwave imagery, in particular a 1222 UTC SSMIS
overpass, suggest that the center is located near the northern edge
of the dense overcast, and the motion is estimated to be
west-northwestward or 290/6 kt. There is little change to the
track forecast philosophy. A mid-tropospheric trough that is
expected to develop over the southeastern United States should
induce a turn toward the north, and then northeast, with a gradual
increase in forward speed over the next few days. This would bring
the center of the cyclone across the northern Florida peninsula
within 60-72 hours. The official track forecast is about the same
as the previous one, and is mainly a blend of the GFS and ECMWF
predictions.

Given the current forecast, a tropical storm watch may be required
for a portion of the Florida Gulf coast later today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 24.0N 87.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 24.5N 87.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 31/1200Z 25.4N 87.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 26.9N 86.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 28.5N 84.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 31.6N 79.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 34.0N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 36.5N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5291 Postby chaser1 » Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:49 am

FLLurker32 wrote:I've been lurking this board this past week. I live in Marion county, FL so I've been watching this carefully. IF this were to strengthen it would be a nightmare for those of us living in this region. FL hurricane dry spell aside, we've never been an area to receive many tropical storms/hurricanes. I grew up here and could probably count all of the ones of any significance on one hand. We typically only receive a few bands. People inland are not as prepared as those on the coast. Most here do not own generators and we have a lot of tree overgrowth. Warnings are essential and it doesn't look like people here are going to get much of one if intensification occurs. For that reason alone, I hope it stays a weak tropical storm.


Hey there Marion County 8-) I'd guess that you'll have NHC and/or local NWS offices putting up Watches around noon (but maybe later in the day). I think the most prudent thing you could do would be to "over-anticipate" and maybe plan on a minimal hurricane to pass near or over your area. Really, if you can just do a few things to prepare yourself for a couple days without electric, than you'll likely be in pretty good shape. With a good deal of overhanging foliage, you only need T.S. strength winds to cause branches or dead trees to fall on any roof structure, car, or overhead power lines. If you havn't thus far, it might be a good idea to "carefully" prune away any dead limbs or perhaps branches that might risk falling on electric wires. Make sure to avoid getting close to ANY WIRES however. Basically, have flashlights or candles for a couple days of lighting if necessary. Make sure you've got any propane tanks full of gas so at least you've got the BBQ to cook on if needed. Fill the vehicles up with gas today, and perhaps grab some cash from the ATM too. While you're filling up your cars why not take any small gas tanks with you and fill them up as well. You'll want to have that gas in case you'll have a need for that chainsaw to cut up any debris that might have fallen. Good idea to run out and grab a few gallons of fresh bottled water and some cans of food that will not perrish (make sure you've got a manual can opener). Very important too. If the power is out but its too hot inside and you're spending more time outside, why not grab a couple of mosquito yard foggers and some of those burning mosquito coils too. If you do this much and little else, there's no reason that you should'nt have the decent resources to deal with whatever a Tropical Storm or minimal hurricane might throw at you. Remember to stay away from windows if/when the winds really start to blow.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5292 Postby JaxGator » Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:54 am

sponger wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:Not sure what to make of this system. It looks to be building more westward.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html


its expanding in size but IR can can be deceiving as to actual movement and center location...it will start to turn


Huge blow up in convection. I believe we have a tropical storm now!


Really big blow up. Looks like a CDO to me. Winds might be higher for you in St. Augustine if it gets stronger (and bigger waves).
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5293 Postby chris_fit » Tue Aug 30, 2016 9:58 am

This one of the most prettiest ugly things I have seen in awhile.

Image
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5294 Postby chaser1 » Tue Aug 30, 2016 10:00 am

Present blow up is impressive but boy that shear out of the SSW is still pushing up hard against it. Can't help to think that TD9 is really trying to align a north-south oriented COC with the LLC under the edge of the northernmost convection but perhaps some MLC further to its south?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5295 Postby HurriGuy » Tue Aug 30, 2016 10:01 am

Part of me thinks the center is way at the north side of the convection, but the other pat of me thinks the center is still way on the southwest side of the convection
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5296 Postby chaser1 » Tue Aug 30, 2016 10:02 am

This, from the 11:00am Cyclone Discussion:

....the overall organization of
the system has not changed much since last night. Dvorak T-numbers
from TAFB and SAB have not increased, so the intensity is kept at 30
kt for this advisory.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5297 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Aug 30, 2016 10:02 am

At least with this storm we know that we can take rapid intensification off the table. But think a 50 to 60 mph storm is still possible at this point if it's able to hit tropical storm status by tonight.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5298 Postby FLLurker32 » Tue Aug 30, 2016 10:03 am

chaser1 wrote:
FLLurker32 wrote:I've been lurking this board this past week. I live in Marion county, FL so I've been watching this carefully. IF this were to strengthen it would be a nightmare for those of us living in this region. FL hurricane dry spell aside, we've never been an area to receive many tropical storms/hurricanes. I grew up here and could probably count all of the ones of any significance on one hand. We typically only receive a few bands. People inland are not as prepared as those on the coast. Most here do not own generators and we have a lot of tree overgrowth. Warnings are essential and it doesn't look like people here are going to get much of one if intensification occurs. For that reason alone, I hope it stays a weak tropical storm.


Hey there Marion County 8-) I'd guess that you'll have NHC and/or local NWS offices putting up Watches around noon (but maybe later in the day). I think the most prudent thing you could do would be to "over-anticipate" and maybe plan on a minimal hurricane to pass near or over your area. Really, if you can just do a few things to prepare yourself for a couple days without electric, than you'll likely be in pretty good shape. With a good deal of overhanging foliage, you only need T.S. strength winds to cause branches or dead trees to fall on any roof structure, car, or overhead power lines. If you havn't thus far, it might be a good idea to "carefully" prune away any dead limbs or perhaps branches that might risk falling on electric wires. Make sure to avoid getting close to ANY WIRES however. Basically, have flashlights or candles for a couple days of lighting if necessary. Make sure you've got any propane tanks full of gas so at least you've got the BBQ to cook on if needed. Fill the vehicles up with gas today, and perhaps grab some cash from the ATM too. While you're filling up your cars why not take any small gas tanks with you and fill them up as well. You'll want to have that gas in case you'll have a need for that chainsaw to cut up any debris that might have fallen. Good idea to run out and grab a few gallons of fresh bottled water and some cans of food that will not perrish (make sure you've got a manual can opener). Very important too. If the power is out but its too hot inside and you're spending more time outside, why not grab a couple of mosquito yard foggers and some of those burning mosquito coils too. If you do this much and little else, there's no reason that you should'nt have the decent resources to deal with whatever a Tropical Storm or minimal hurricane might throw at you. Remember to stay away from windows if/when the winds really start to blow.


Hey! Thanks. I'm admittedly too much of a weather geek to not know what to do myself BUT I see a lot of people in the area not really paying much attention. The local TV Mets have downplayed it as not much more than a little wind and a lot of rain. They throw in a "It COULD do more" right before they say "but I don't think it will, so no reason to worry." They have not been promoting preparedness like I remember them doing years ago. Maybe they've become complacent?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5299 Postby Texashawk » Tue Aug 30, 2016 10:03 am

So according to the latest plot, Nine should be turning due north about..... Right now. I'm not seeing it, but they seem pretty damn confident about that turn happening rightnow...
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Re: ATL: NINE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#5300 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 30, 2016 10:05 am

cdavis6287 wrote:I see some of the models shifting more west across Florida than the original plot for land fall around the Cedar Key area. Any reasoning in this or will the models go back a forth until it gets closer? Thanks


"Some of the models" are not very good to use for tropical cyclones. Those westernmost tracks (western FL Panhandle) are from the NOGAPS, NAM, and Canadian - the three worst models to use for TCs (in that order). However, the better models have shifted very slightly north for landfall on Thursday.
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