ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurriGuy]

It almost looks like the old center just completely opened up as the sun was coming up. It accelerated to the north very quickly last few frames and then gone.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif

[JILL239]

Wondering if we should expect anything more than rain in Lee and Collier counties? It's been raining obviously on and off and breezy this morning. This afternoon or evening we should start to see the move Northward or are we anticipating it maybe going more southeast towards Tampa? Wondering if they will put a watch up for the complete coast

[chaser1]

I've been lurking this board this past week. I live in Marion county, FL so I've been watching this carefully. IF this were to strengthen it would be a nightmare for those of us living in this region. FL hurricane dry spell aside, we've never been an area to receive many tropical storms/hurricanes. I grew up here and could probably count all of the ones of any significance on one hand. We typically only receive a few bands. People inland are not as prepared as those on the coast. Most here do not own generators and we have a lot of tree overgrowth. Warnings are essential and it doesn't look like people here are going to get much of one if intensification occurs. For that reason alone, I hope it stays a weak tropical storm.

Hey there Marion County I'd guess that you'll have NHC and/or local NWS offices putting up Watches around noon (but maybe later in the day). I think the most prudent thing you could do would be to "over-anticipate" and maybe plan on a minimal hurricane to pass near or over your area. Really, if you can just do a few things to prepare yourself for a couple days without electric, than you'll likely be in pretty good shape. With a good deal of overhanging foliage, you only need T.S. strength winds to cause branches or dead trees to fall on any roof structure, car, or overhead power lines. If you havn't thus far, it might be a good idea to "carefully" prune away any dead limbs or perhaps branches that might risk falling on electric wires. Make sure to avoid getting close to ANY WIRES however. Basically, have flashlights or candles for a couple days of lighting if necessary. Make sure you've got any propane tanks full of gas so at least you've got the BBQ to cook on if needed. Fill the vehicles up with gas today, and perhaps grab some cash from the ATM too. While you're filling up your cars why not take any small gas tanks with you and fill them up as well. You'll want to have that gas in case you'll have a need for that chainsaw to cut up any debris that might have fallen. Good idea to run out and grab a few gallons of fresh bottled water and some cans of food that will not perrish (make sure you've got a manual can opener). Very important too. If the power is out but its too hot inside and you're spending more time outside, why not grab a couple of mosquito yard foggers and some of those burning mosquito coils too. If you do this much and little else, there's no reason that you should'nt have the decent resources to deal with whatever a Tropical Storm or minimal hurricane might throw at you. Remember to stay away from windows if/when the winds really start to blow.

Hey! Thanks. I'm admittedly too much of a weather geek to not know what to do myself BUT I see a lot of people in the area not really paying much attention. The local TV Mets have downplayed it as not much more than a little wind and a lot of rain. They throw in a "It COULD do more" right before they say "but I don't think it will, so no reason to worry." They have not been promoting preparedness like I remember them doing years ago. Maybe they've become complacent?

Sorry and would've spared you the "weather prep" ideas had I known you were another "one of us" LOL!. We (along with many here) share in your geekness! LOL

[HurriGuy]

Looks like a new ASCAT pass is about come in

[Kazmit]

The forecast track is very similar to Colin's (but wider).
TD 9:

Colin:

[psyclone]

I've always expected this mess to be primarily a heavy rain threat (with an attendant svr sx threat) and I remain convinced of that. However, this system is expected to move toward a very surge prone area and a south wind will stack up some water. with that in mind check out the new surge product from the NHC. This is a terrific product!

[chaser1]

So, this also taken from the recent 11:00am Discussion:

Visible and microwave imagery, in particular a 1222 UTC SSMIS
overpass, suggest that the center is located near the northern edge
of the dense overcast, and the motion is estimated to be
west-northwestward or 290/6 kt. There is little change to the
track forecast philosophy.

It went on to say that recon will be flying in again this afternoon, and see whether strengthening has occured. Will also likely see whether its forward motion might have changed some, but more importantly whether this TD is becoming any bit more vertically established as well. For now, same story though - "SHEAR disorganization"

[RL3AO]

The forecast track is very similar to Colin's (but wider).
TD 9:

Colin:

It's the same size. Colin is just zoomed out more. Cone size never changes during a season.

[psyclone]

The track is only "wider" because Colin was moving faster. But as I said last night the eventual watch area may be close or identical...Indian pass to Englewood. that would match up nicely with current wind probs

[chaser1]

Yep, looks like a Colin redux all right

[psyclone]

BTW look at those QPF maps. We are going to get dumped on big time. that going to cause some problems

[wxman57]

At least with this storm we know that we can take rapid intensification off the table. But think a 50 to 60 mph storm is still possible at this point if it's able to hit tropical storm status by tonight.

Don't assume that. Think back to Humberto in 2007 when it was about to move ashore into Galveston. Went from a 45 mph TS to nearly a Cat 2 hurricane in just a few hours.

[Stormcenter]

So they can't tell whether the forward motion has changed?

So, this also taken from the recent 11:00am Discussion:

Visible and microwave imagery, in particular a 1222 UTC SSMIS
overpass, suggest that the center is located near the northern edge
of the dense overcast, and the motion is estimated to be
west-northwestward or 290/6 kt. There is little change to the
track forecast philosophy.

It went on to say that recon will be flying in again this afternoon, and see whether strengthening has occured. Will also likely see whether its forward motion might have changed some, but more importantly whether this TD is becoming any bit more vertically established as well. For now, same story though - "SHEAR disorganization"

[robbielyn]

It would be great news and by the way it does not look organized at all right now.

I hate to say it but if you look on water vapor this storm is still being sheared. It's not going to do much I am afraid.

Wouldn't this be a good thing for the people in the region?

I am in the region south of cedar key spring hill fl.

[GCANE]

Is that an outflow boundary along 84W in the last frame?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[robbielyn]

At least with this storm we know that we can take rapid intensification off the table. But think a 50 to 60 mph storm is still possible at this point if it's able to hit tropical storm status by tonight.

Don't assume that. Think back to Humberto in 2007 when it was about to move ashore into Galveston. Went from a 45 mph TS to nearly a Cat 2 hurricane in just a few hours.

This isn't even a TS. And with all the dry air and sheer, I don't see how it will even make it to cat 1. Humberto probably still had less to contend with than TD9 as it was a TS. But we should all be prepared and keeping vigilant regardless of what happens.

[davidiowx]

This thing sure does look to be building further westward. It is difficult for me to see where the exact center is now. I would say it is towards the northern part of the convection, you can kinda see the low level spin as the clouds are sheared towards the SW

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Through sonde 70, dropped at 10:24am EDT:

[whatacane]

my Question is do they have the center right for the cone? sure seems to be over the Yucatan?

[stormlover2013]

it will make the turn, I mean when have models been bad this late in the game, it will make the turn