ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

What is the difference between a 35mph depression and a 40mph tropical storm? the answer is practically nothing. worth keeping in mind when (and if) this heap of water vapor is ever upgraded. Of course, sustained and significant strengthening is a whole different matter.

[jdray]

Good morning all!! The cyclone looks pretty good right now, as you.all have alluded to already, convection really expanding towards the northwest at this time. I have to think we likely will see upgrade ro TS by this afternoon, but I think it is already there to be honest.

Yeah it looks to be a Cedar Key to Jax runner on the ptojected track . Thursday will be the day likely here with the greatest effects from the cyclone. I will be keeping you all informed here, along with Jaxgator in this area of course during this event. I hope this will be like Colin was when it came through here, which was aa fast mover and aweak TS with no.really no severe impacts, except for heavy rain.

I'll also be chiming in from the Jax area. Should be interesting to see how this area reacts to a Tropical Storm, as compared to Broward County! Not that this should be a large threat to us, just some rain and wind (if it stays weak). Should be fun.

Same here, I'll try to give some updates throughout the day/evening. I'm out in Clay County, so should be able to give an indication of winds if I can get my anemometer working.

[chaser1]

ULL looks just to the west of Nine.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-85&info=wv&zoom=4&width=1400&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=wv2.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black

Given the southward motion of this cutoff along with the anticipated motion of TD 9 towards the north, do you figure about 12-24 hours for this feature to move south of TD 9's latitude? Perhaps then we'll see a more straight south component of shear and who knows, maybe actually enchance its west quad outflow?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

What is the difference between a 35mph depression and a 40mph tropical storm? the answer is practically nothing. worth keeping in mind when (and if) this heap of water vapor is ever upgraded. Of course, sustained and significant strengthening is a whole different matter.

At this point it does not seem capable...its had two weeks to form something. Its underlying LLC is defective or something if thats possible.


But where is the trough that sweeps it up ?? shouldn't it be somewhere close?

[chaser1]

What is the difference between a 35mph depression and a 40mph tropical storm? the answer is practically nothing. worth keeping in mind when (and if) this heap of water vapor is ever upgraded. Of course, sustained and significant strengthening is a whole different matter.

5mph of depressing rain LOL

[ConvergenceZone]

Learned a lot here lately. Most important for future storms who is doubting the pros and -removed-. All and all great site. Once you listen to the experienced members.

It does not take long to figure out who to listen to. Like any tool you just need to learn how to use it.

Yea the only comments I read most of the time iare from the pro mets. I just keep scrolling down until I find the dark blue

[robbielyn]

ULL looks just to the west of Nine.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-85&info=wv&zoom=4&width=1400&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=wv2.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black

looks what?

looks like its just west of TD9

[AutoPenalti]

Lol @ someone who thinks that this storm was born with a defective LLC. I like that theory.

[SunnyThoughts]

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1110 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
TARPON SPRINGS NORTH TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 60 NAUTICAL
MILES...

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 IS SLOWLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE WATERS BEGINNING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

GMZ850-870-310300-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TR.A.1009.160830T1510Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
1110 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH.

* WINDS...40 TO 50 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS

* WAVES/SEAS...8 TO 12 FEET NEARSHORE WITH 12 TO 20 FEET POSSIBLE
WELL OFFSHORE.

* TIMING...WINDS INCREASING TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 34 TO 63 KT OR 39
TO 73 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 48 HOURS.

This is just for marine weather ...for now I guess ?

[robbielyn]

What is the difference between a 35mph depression and a 40mph tropical storm? the answer is practically nothing. worth keeping in mind when (and if) this heap of water vapor is ever upgraded. Of course, sustained and significant strengthening is a whole different matter.

At this point it does not seem capable...its had two weeks to form something. Its underlying LLC is defective or something if thats possible.


But where is the trough that sweeps it up ?? shouldn't it be somewhere close?

there is nothing defective about the coc. If you had 4 bullies attacking you nonstop for 4 days but you were extra special cuz eventhough you were weak after 12 days of pounding, you weren't dead, I say its the enemies relentlessness not giving it a chance to get up and strengthen.

[floridasun78]

i see north and central fl not much rain mostly southern part

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Lol @ someone who thinks that this storm was born with a defective LLC. I like that theory.

haha..I have never seen an invest or such a weak TD in all my 8 years of watching go so far so long in august...its like it was growing up with the other storms something was wrong with it. Couldn't learn its ABCs or figure out multiplication. I figured it was just special.

[NDG]

12z HWRF back to a Hurricane with TD 9

[jdray]

This storm should not be much more than a rain event with occasional wind gusts. The bigger issue is the tornado threat, which luckily is only marginal right now. TS Colin dumped 4-8" and spawned an EF-1 in Duval County even though it was only a 50Mph TS, so please heed any local NWS warnings.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

SPC AC 300705

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NCNTRL FL
PENINSULA AND FAR SE GA...

...SUMMARY...
A MARGINAL THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

...FL PENINSULA/FAR SE GA...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS CURRENTLY FORECASTING A TROPICAL
STORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. THE TROPICAL
STORM IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND INLAND ACROSS THE NCNTRL FL PENINSULA AROUND MIDDAY ON THURSDAY.
THE ECMWF...NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE NOW IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT
WITH THE NHC FORECAST. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR GAINESVILLE FL AT
18Z ON THURSDAY SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 75 F...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING 2.50 INCHES...STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE
SFC TO 850 MB AND 0-1 KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS AND AT LEAST A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT
THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ATTM...WILL KEEP THE SEVERE
THREAT LEVEL AT MARGINAL MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT THE
TIMING AND EXACT TRACK OF THE TROPICAL STORM. A SLIGHT RISK MAY NEED
TO BE ADDED ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN GULF COAST STATES AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES CONCERNING THE DETAILS OF THURSDAYS SCENARIO.

..BROYLES.. 08/30/2016

*The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[chaser1]

What is the difference between a 35mph depression and a 40mph tropical storm? the answer is practically nothing. worth keeping in mind when (and if) this heap of water vapor is ever upgraded. Of course, sustained and significant strengthening is a whole different matter.

At this point it does not seem capable...its had two weeks to form something. Its underlying LLC is defective or something if thats possible.


But where is the trough that sweeps it up ?? shouldn't it be somewhere close?

(tongue in cheek) As a chain reaction to Aric's plane landing somewhere in N. Central Fla., the plane's circling prior to touchdown will kick off a small eddy to form over Lake County Fl.; This will in turn initiate a weakness that will reflect up to the 500mb level and immediately cause a kink underneith an existing ridge covering the S.E.. Conus. This in turn will alert Ninel Conde to release a weakness from Greenland to retrograde SSW just inside the U.S. Eastern "Seaboard. This weakness along with with the newly created low to mid level low newly developed over Lake County in N.W. Florida (caused by Eric flying here to chase a potential T.S.), will degrade the 591mb mid level ridge to a point where all things (Exxon oil spill residue, Red Tide, a lot of Snapper, Yellow Tail, and a few lighter Grouper, weak tropical surface features, and possibly even USAF flown recon drones...) within the Eastern Gulf of Mexico will all neatly flow toward the Northeast. Hopefully, none of the heavier items will end up deposited in Jax, Fl. on their way out to the Atlantic!

[MississippiWx]

Off topic: System moving into Texas looks like a tropical depression or storm today. Apologies, but there are no topics on this anywhere. Thought you guys might like to give it a look.

Sorry for the off topic post. Carry on.

[hohnywx]

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1110 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
TARPON SPRINGS NORTH TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 60 NAUTICAL
MILES...

.....

This is just for marine weather ...for now I guess ?

Yes that is for the coastal waters only ATT

[GCANE]

Strong increase in vort.

Up to 14 at 24.8N 86.5W

[Nimbus]

Is Miss Piggy flying in thought I saw some HDOB data near 25 88?

[benh316]

Strong increase in vort.

Up to 14 at 24.8N 86.5W

I believe you are correct. For the first time I am now seeing (on visible sat) a "tighter" motion of the vortex - and possibly a realigning with convection to its SE