ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chris_fit]

Weird thing in recon..... they have already descended but it looks like they are doing a random loop or turning back? Hopefully nothing is wrong.

[chris_fit]

Cancel that - they did a loop and are back at it

[SunnyThoughts]

Is Miss Piggy flying in thought I saw some HDOB data near 25 88?

I did read where recon was on the way. Not sure if Miss piggy or AF

[crimi481]

The coastal Texas energy, may possibly transfer to TD 9? add moisture to its west side.
Good ventilating from 3 sides.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Not a Pro here

[GCANE]

Strong increase in vort.

Up to 14 at 24.8N 86.5W

I believe you are correct. For the first time I am now seeing (on visible sat) a "tighter" motion of the vortex - and possibly a realigning with convection to its SE

I think it may come together soon.
Air is more juiced than yesterday, stronger vort, outflow channel building, ....

[chaser1]

Off topic: System moving into Texas looks like a tropical depression or storm today. Apologies, but there are no topics on this anywhere. Thought you guys might like to give it a look.

Sorry for the off topic post. Carry on.

Just took a look at that feature and there is definatly something there spinning. Took a look at the Houston radar but a bit too far so then checked out the radar out of Brownsville, Tx. No doubt there's a tight area off Corpus Christi with heavier convection on its north side. Only referernce from NWS discusses an upper level low but this feature has no doubt worked itself down to mid levels to at least as low as the 850mb level. In either case, there are flood advisories for 2' above normal tide levels there and along parts of Corpus Christi and have been some minor local street flooding. Next high tide is around midnight there. No other particular warnings or concerns for winds or additional development. One thing that I can plainly see, is that the surface convergence is being severly disrupted by the larger broad surface circulation around TD 9. That alone would seem to eliminate any reasonable chance this feature will do anything but drift south and eventually fizzle out in a couple days time.

[South Texas Storms]

Off topic: System moving into Texas looks like a tropical depression or storm today. Apologies, but there are no topics on this anywhere. Thought you guys might like to give it a look.

Sorry for the off topic post. Carry on.

There is a topic on this disturbance over in the Talkin' Tropics forum.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118201

[Alyono]

Is Miss Piggy flying in thought I saw some HDOB data near 25 88?

I did read where recon was on the way. Not sure if Miss piggy or AF

most AF planes are in Honolulu it appears. Only NOAA

[GCANE]

Definitely rollin

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[Alyono]

looks like mid level shear has again rocked this

[indianforever]

shouldn't it be starting to head north by now?

[Sanibel]

Exactly. Still trading intensity for shear and dry air. I thought it would ramp up faster but didn't. A sharp eye would see the surface feature has expanded.

[JaxGator]

Take this with a grain of salt looking at shear maps. They are back up. Most of big shear that was over Florida has now moved south and a huge area of low shear is now overhead the storm. So maybe at best, certain levels of mid-level dry air is the only short term inhibitor. The moisture charts from UW do show a vigorous spin with TD 9 and imo, it wouldn't take much for this this to get going. It didn't take long for TD 8 to form under the right conditions before they reversed. Just my 2 cents.

[Alyono]

Ignore what TWC is saying. They are saying this is intensifying

Recon found a slightly higher pressure.

A simple look at a visible satellite image shows this is actually LESS organized. The convective burst has died leaving only cirrus

[Nimbus]

Miss Piggy just recorded a vortex pressure of 1006.
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°20'N 87°06'W (24.3333N 87.1W)

[tropicwatch]

41 kts (47.2 mph) at surface and not flagged. I'm not convinced. Unless it met a squall line.

[TropicalSailor]

Ignore what TWC is saying. They are saying this is intensifying

Recon found a slightly higher pressure.

A simple look at a visible satellite image shows this is actually LESS organized. The convective burst has died leaving only cirrus

The longer this thing stays disorganized and weak while almost stalling out does that increase any chance we see a more westward track as in LA/Panhandle or do you still expect a NE turn?

[StormHunter72]

Listen to experts

[Alyono]

Ignore what TWC is saying. They are saying this is intensifying

Recon found a slightly higher pressure.

A simple look at a visible satellite image shows this is actually LESS organized. The convective burst has died leaving only cirrus

The longer this thing stays disorganized and weak while almost stalling out does that increase any chance we see a more westward track as in LA/Panhandle or do you still expect a NE turn?

not going to Louisiana. Slower track has implications for the Mid Atlantic and New England

[GCANE]

Miss Piggy just recorded a vortex pressure of 1006.
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°20'N 87°06'W (24.3333N 87.1W)

That is pretty close to the max vort from DuPage Weather Lab