Fish and Fish

jfaul · #1 Postby **jfaul** » Thu Sep 25, 2003 4:25 pm

Two fishes ...gulf and carib is where the action will be if any. Enjoy your weekend.

Rainband · #2 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Sep 25, 2003 4:37 pm

jfaul wrote:Two fishes ...gulf and carib is where the action will be if any. Enjoy your weekend.

tatar sauce or cocktail :lol:

jfaul · #3 Postby **jfaul** » Thu Sep 25, 2003 5:01 pm

Rainband wrote:
jfaul wrote:Two fishes ...gulf and carib is where the action will be if any. Enjoy your weekend.
tatar sauce or cocktail

tarter for juan and cocktail for kate

Rainband · #4 Postby **Rainband** » Thu Sep 25, 2003 5:05 pm

jfaul wrote:
Rainband wrote:
jfaul wrote:Two fishes ...gulf and carib is where the action will be if any. Enjoy your weekend.
tatar sauce or cocktail

tarter for juan and cocktail for kate

Josephine96 · #5 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Sep 25, 2003 6:26 pm

I agree about Juan being a fish.. but Kate is at a very low latitude.. Kate may surprise some people.. We have to wait and see if TD 17/Larry forms..

#6 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Thu Sep 25, 2003 6:29 pm

Nah. Kate is most likely going to be a fish. It is way too late to be affected by a Cape Verde system so late in the season. Now the Carib is another story.

Stormsfury · #7 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Sep 25, 2003 6:37 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:Nah. Kate is most likely going to be a fish. It is way too late to be affected by a Cape Verde system so late in the season. Now the Carib is another story.

Remember, this is 2003 ... the same was said for Ana in April ... and the earliest Tropical Depression (#2) of record for so far east (even though nothing came of it). History has shown us that it has happened once before. Storm #9 in 1893 which struck South Carolina developed on 9/25/1893 (as a 40 mph tropical storm at 11.6ºN, and 25.0ºW) and became a hurricane east of 35ºW (specifically 11.7ºN, 33.6ºW). It hit South Carolina, just east of Charleston, SC as a 120 mph, 955 mb (estimated) CAT 3 hurricane on October 13th, 1893 and was the second of two major hurricanes to hit South Carolina that year (the first was the Sea Islands Hurricane which was believed to have killed 1,000-2,000 people along GA/SC)

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Trop ... s/1893.jpg

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Trop ... s/1893.txt

I'm not saying that's gonna happen. Personally, I don't think that it will happen at this time. But it's too early IMO to declare #16 a fish when it's just beginning to take shape.

SF

Aquawind · #8 Postby **Aquawind** » Thu Sep 25, 2003 6:43 pm

Good Point Stormsfury..Tad early to call it a auto fish...Could be a setup for another CrowFest..LOL :wink:

Juan already has Gills.. :lol:

ColdFront77 · #9 Postby **ColdFront77** » Thu Sep 25, 2003 6:46 pm

I agree SF. Juan is further north and already in a position to move northward.

Tropical Depression #16 has some northerly component and it is too early to tell whether or not the system will stay more northerly than westerly beyond three to five days.

bahamaswx · #10 Postby **bahamaswx** » Thu Sep 25, 2003 6:47 pm

Fish? Depends how you define a fish. While it's unlikely TD16 will affect the USA, the Islands should still watch it. It's possible that TD16 won't strengthen as quickly as forecast... thus a westward track. Of course.. everything points to further strengthening.

Stormsfury · #11 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Sep 25, 2003 6:57 pm

A better look at that same 1893 hurricane track with a highlight to it.

SF

#12 Postby **abajan** » Thu Sep 25, 2003 8:56 pm

jfaul wrote:Two fishes ...gulf and carib is where the action will be if any.

This is a reasonable assumption.

JCT777 · #13 Postby **JCT777** » Fri Sep 26, 2003 7:06 am

Even Jim Cantore last night stated that he does not think TD 16/Kate will curve north before reaching the islands. So I think we should watch this one and not assume it will be swimming with the fishies.

Aquawind · #14 Postby **Aquawind** » Fri Sep 26, 2003 7:20 am

5am discussion..not a done deal yet.

UNTIL A WELL-DEFINED CENTER BECOMES APPARENT...
THE FUTURE TRACK WILL REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THE RIGHTMOST GFS MODEL
IMMEDIATELY TAKES THE CYCLONE RAPIDLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...WHICH
DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN THE PAST AND CURRENT SATELLITE MOTION
TRENDS. THE REST OF THE NHC GUIDANCE IS SLOWER AND QUITE DIVERGENT
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST...WITH MOST STILL INDICATING
RECURVATURE IN 72-96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY
TO THE LEFT OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND
VERY CLOSE TO THE UKMET AND MEDIUM BAM CONSENSUS. IF TD-16
DEVELOPS/REMAINS FARTHER SOUTH... THEN IT MAY NOT GET FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO GET PICKED UP BY THE LARGE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG
SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLCONE IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OT REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR...SO THE SHIPS MODEL
WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED. HOWEVER...IF THE CYCLONE REMAINS FARTHER
SOUTH THAN FORECAST...THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MUCH LESS...AND
MORE STRENGTHENING WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

FORECASTER STEWART

Fish is a more likely scenario this late in the season.. sooner or later we shall see.

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