ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[centuryv58]

Something to ponder....I know the local METS have been showing larger rainfall totals on the Florida West Coast. They are seeming to ignore one thing we see all the time....the June Tropical Storm effect. If this entity never fully stacks, battles shear and then gets whipped NE...most of the convection could possible be in the Atlantic before the center makes landfall...and convection moving at a very good clip as well. If it stays weaker, also wont have as strong a helicity for tornadic development. It is always wise to never turn your back on a storm in the fishbowl...but if it continues on its current course at this present state or slightly stronger...we may be very fortunate to not see much of anything but some blustery showers...fingers crossed.

Absolutely. I think the writing is on the wall. Very little rain for FL out of this. It's looked like dry, sheared, popcorn thunderstorms at best. Expect it to continue.

Exactly! amen! I think that is par for the course same song and dance we have seen this before. That is all that ever happens here when we are actually threatened. my grass is brown. But euro is a bust on this one. one doesnt hv to be a pro met to see what is happening and per nhc it only goes downhill development wise from here with all the dry air and shear still forecast as it makes landfall. I should all be able to go to the beach friday even if it's cloudy. at least we won't have to worry about beach erosion.

Hope you are right, but very bad weather in South FL all day. More to come, say Pro Mets here.

[stormreader]

From what I can see---continued west. Don't yet see any north component at all.

[Aric Dunn]

another burst of convention starting..

[gatorcane]

What I see is that the LLC and MLC are still not aligned. MLC is further SSE. IF those can align, maybe this thing can ramp up like the ECMWF and UKMET are depicting.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[tolakram]

speed it up. Finally starting to see some mid level rotation and banding. Amateur opinion is that it may be getting better organized.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-87&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=black

[tropicwatch]

Is TD#9 following the NHC's track right now?

NHC plots and current VDM.

[GCANE]

Impressive pop at 18:15

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=black

24N 87W
Right on the vort max and where recon is fixing the center.

Center Fix Coordinates: 24°20'N 87°06'W (24.3333N 87.1W)

A few little towers were popping around it too.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Here's a shot of Miss Piggy's radar. She's at 25.3N 85.8W
So, it will be the cell to the SW.
From IR, it is showing -80C.

http://hurricanecity.com/recon/recon.cg ... OAA-3-.kmz

[Aric Dunn]

What I see is that the LLC and MLC are still not aligned. MLC is further SSE. IF those can align, maybe this thing can ramp up like the ECMWF and UKMET are depicting.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

all the models have trended for a stronger system at landfall now. almost all a hurricane.

[Steve]

I'm surprised this got past 87. Early in the weekend it seemed to me as though 86.5 was absolute western boundary of the track. It likely doesn't matter for the Gulf but this was a mild surprise in the track imho.

[Florida1118]

Something to ponder....I know the local METS have been showing larger rainfall totals on the Florida West Coast. They are seeming to ignore one thing we see all the time....the June Tropical Storm effect. If this entity never fully stacks, battles shear and then gets whipped NE...most of the convection could possible be in the Atlantic before the center makes landfall...and convection moving at a very good clip as well. If it stays weaker, also wont have as strong a helicity for tornadic development. It is always wise to never turn your back on a storm in the fishbowl...but if it continues on its current course at this present state or slightly stronger...we may be very fortunate to not see much of anything but some blustery showers...fingers crossed.

Absolutely. I think the writing is on the wall. Very little rain for FL out of this. It's looked like dry, sheared, popcorn thunderstorms at best. Expect it to continue.

Exactly! amen! I think that is par for the course same song and dance we have seen this before. That is all that ever happens here when we are actually threatened. my grass is brown. But euro is a bust on this one. one doesnt hv to be a pro met to see what is happening and per nhc it only goes downhill development wise from here with all the dry air and shear still forecast as it makes landfall. I should all be able to go to the beach friday even if it's cloudy. at least we won't have to worry about beach erosion.

...Did you even look at any of the NHC or NWS products? I'm guessing not. Many areas along the West Coast of Florida will have beach erosion. Areas from Pasco County, all the way up through Taylor county will likely be experiencing Storm Surge; areas such as Yankeetown with over 6 feet of surge. Beach Erosion, Coastal Flooding, Surge, and Inland Rainfall Flooding will all be significant issues for these areas. I get that some of you are bummed this isn't going to be a huge event, but this isn't a no event. Actually read and digest things coming out from the National Weather Service.

[BigB0882]

I am supposed to be heading to Navarre on Thursday afternoon. I hope this doesn't trend too far in that direction. Starting to look like a possibility after feeling really sure we wouldn't have any issues. I am not worried about a strong hurricane ruining the entire weekend but I don't want to be driving in it trying to get there. Are the models showing landfall Thursday?

[GCANE]

24N 87W
Right on the vort max and where recon is fixing the center.

Center Fix Coordinates: 24°20'N 87°06'W (24.3333N 87.1W)

A few little towers were popping around it too.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Here's a shot of Miss Piggy's radar. She's at 25.3N 85.8W
So, it will be the cell to the SW.
From IR, it is showing -80C.

http://hurricanecity.com/recon/recon.cg ... OAA-3-.kmz

Got something here.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... olor=black

[TropicalSailor]

I am supposed to be heading to Navarre on Thursday afternoon. I hope this doesn't trend too far in that direction. Starting to look like a possibility after feeling really sure we wouldn't have any issues. I am not worried about a strong hurricane ruining the entire weekend but I don't want to be driving in it trying to get there. Are the models showing landfall Thursday?

It sure seems to be trending Thu afternoon into even Friday.

[Soonercane]

Absolutely. I think the writing is on the wall. Very little rain for FL out of this. It's looked like dry, sheared, popcorn thunderstorms at best. Expect it to continue.

Exactly! amen! I think that is par for the course same song and dance we have seen this before. That is all that ever happens here when we are actually threatened. my grass is brown. But euro is a bust on this one. one doesnt hv to be a pro met to see what is happening and per nhc it only goes downhill development wise from here with all the dry air and shear still forecast as it makes landfall. I should all be able to go to the beach friday even if it's cloudy. at least we won't have to worry about beach erosion.

...Did you even look at any of the NHC or NWS products? I'm guessing not. Many areas along the West Coast of Florida will have beach erosion. Areas from Pasco County, all the way up through Taylor county will likely be experiencing Storm Surge; areas such as Yankeetown with over 6 feet of surge. Beach Erosion, Coastal Flooding, Surge, and Inland Rainfall Flooding will all be significant issues for these areas. I get that some of you are bummed this isn't going to be a huge event, but this isn't a no event. Actually read and digest things coming out from the National Weather Service.

Agreed the tropical moisture drawn in with the system combined with the surge-favorable bathymetry (spelling) of the western florida coast will cause problems even if this is a 45-50knot tropical storm at landfall.

[adam0983]

Pouring rain here in Boca Raton right now I think this storm will surprise a lot of people.

[Stormcenter]

It's further west and south than the NHC's plots. IMO


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

[floridasun78]

rain band coming in now south fl

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Pouring rain here in Boca Raton right now I think this storm will surprise a lot of people.

Yeah..Storm has not moved north yet I would advise anybody Ft Myers up to Pensacola a hit is possible. If the storm does not move say for another 24-36 hours that has repricussions for Tampa/Sarasota area...etc

It actually looked like it wobbled south and west today.

[Aric Dunn]

anyone willing to populate and image with recon fixes since yesterday morning ?

[tolakram]