ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TPAcane]

@Florida1118....I was referring to the charts showing banding with highest precipitation along the coast...not a cumulative effect of tropical moisture being advected into the area...more of a by-product of the storm as opposed to direct impact. Also...if storm remains weak with the convergence..divergence engine not being in synch(stacked)...it is IMHO...that the storm would have a harder time holding onto convection moving in tandem with the shear...the storm has to be strong enough to be able to hold onto the convection...something it has not attained yet...

[gatorcane]

any chance the LLC tries to "tuck" back in under the convection and merge with MLC further south? That MLC looks rather potent

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

We could have a pretty significant track change possibly to the right (east) if that happened.

[StormHunter72]

Something to ponder....I know the local METS have been showing larger rainfall totals on the Florida West Coast. They are seeming to ignore one thing we see all the time....the June Tropical Storm effect. If this entity never fully stacks, battles shear and then gets whipped NE...most of the convection could possible be in the Atlantic before the center makes landfall...and convection moving at a very good clip as well. If it stays weaker, also wont have as strong a helicity for tornadic development. It is always wise to never turn your back on a storm in the fishbowl...but if it continues on its current course at this present state or slightly stronger...we may be very fortunate to not see much of anything but some blustery showers...fingers crossed.

Absolutely. I think the writing is on the wall. Very little rain for FL out of this. It's looked like dry, sheared, popcorn thunderstorms at best. Expect it to continue.

Wow you are obviously one that I will not pay attention to.

[Aric Dunn]

any chance the LLC tries to "tuck" back in under the convection and merge with MLC further south? That MLC looks rather potent

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

We could have a pretty significant track change possibly to the right if that happened.

would take a serious large amount of sustained convection with the MLC. it could just produce another it the llc could sustain convection long enough

[bqknight]

any chance the LLC tries to "tuck" back in under the convection and merge with MLC further south? That MLC looks rather potent

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

We could have a pretty significant track change possibly to the right if that happened.

would take a serious large amount of sustained convection with the MLC. it could just produce another it the llc could sustain convection long enough

There is definitely some spin down there - and - even a bit of convection popping up near it too. More convection popping over LLC though. Guess we shall see what it decides to do.

[drewschmaltz]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... 2hr_03.gif

Somebody explain them apples.

[tarheelprogrammer]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2016_09L/webManager/gifsBy12hr_03.gif

Somebody explain them apples.

Looks like the center is clearly defined there.

[Janie2006]

Interesting. We need to look "upstairs" and see how deep that trough is going to get. I can see a couple of hypothetical scenarios here, reminiscent of, what was it, Lily or Isadore (?) in which a trough was *supposed* to pick up a system but missed it because the system was too far south and west. Granted, those were far different storms in terms of strength and etcetera, but it might be worth examining the "what if" scenario.

OTOH, maybe this belongs in the Models thread.

[Stormcenter]

To the east?

any chance the LLC tries to "tuck" back in under the convection and merge with MLC further south? That MLC looks rather potent

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

We could have a pretty significant track change possibly to the right (east) if that happened.

[GCANE]

Cell is now coming up on ADT

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 301325.jpg

[Dean4Storms]

any chance the LLC tries to "tuck" back in under the convection and merge with MLC further south? That MLC looks rather potent

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

We could have a pretty significant track change possibly to the right (east) if that happened.

Very doubtful, has too big a circulation going. Going to have to have the MLC pick up forward speed to catch the LLC, which is slowly happening.

[Evil Jeremy]

Given how quickly this is expected to traverse Florida, Tropical Storm Watches should go up tonight for the Florida NE coast as well. Probably gulf coast at 5, NE Florida coast at 11.

[GCANE]

They are heading to the cell now

http://hurricanecity.com/recon/recon.cg ... ing=cesium

http://hurricanecity.com/recon/recon.cg ... OAA-3-.kmz

[SeGaBob]

Any indications of a TS at 5pm?

[JaxGator]

JB's thoughts:

Joe Bastardi
‏@BigJoeBastardi
CENTER OF 99L STILL NOT UNDER MID LEVEL CENTER . Once they line up, true deepening will start and it will be before FL


Bold but possible. Only a matter of time though as we are seeing now.

[HurriGuy]

I would expect this to start looking better every hour.

MID-LEVEL MAP

[gatorcane]

I will say this is looking much better today, nice outflow, better symmetry, just needs MLC and LLC to align...

[GCANE]

No shear over this puppy

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc16/A ... .100pc.jpg

[HurriGuy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

Dry air starting to lessen.

System near Texas is helping TD 09 because it is contributing in filtering out the dry air as it comes off Mexico.

[GCANE]

Still holding -80C

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc16/A ... W.89pc.jpg