ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[benh316]

Any indications of a TS at 5pm?

I would say with recon data of this new cell that exploded near the center of circulation and with the extensive blooming of convection around these areas - so long as wind speeds are consistent with TS classification, I believe that 5pm announcement of a TS would be most probable. I am still skeptical of the current vorticity of this system, but it is changing very rapidly - so I am expecting it to be exponentially different soon

[tarheelprogrammer]

I would personally upgrade this to a 40mph storm right now. Just my opinion though.

[SueOrleans]

Can anybody point me to a good visualization of the low pressure/high pressure areas that are expected to drive TD 9 northeast? I've looked at a lot of maps, but can't quite seem to put it all together in my mind. Thanks!

[ScottNAtlanta]

I would personally upgrade this to a 40mph storm right now. Just my opinion though.

I didnt see a single TS force surface wind yet in recon...

[robbielyn]

Exactly! amen! I think that is par for the course same song and dance we have seen this before. That is all that ever happens here when we are actually threatened. my grass is brown. But euro is a bust on this one. one doesnt hv to be a pro met to see what is happening and per nhc it only goes downhill development wise from here with all the dry air and shear still forecast as it makes landfall. I should all be able to go to the beach friday even if it's cloudy. at least we won't have to worry about beach erosion.

...Did you even look at any of the NHC or NWS products? I'm guessing not. Many areas along the West Coast of Florida will have beach erosion. Areas from Pasco County, all the way up through Taylor county will likely be experiencing Storm Surge; areas such as Yankeetown with over 6 feet of surge. Beach Erosion, Coastal Flooding, Surge, and Inland Rainfall Flooding will all be significant issues for these areas. I get that some of you are bummed this isn't going to be a huge event, but this isn't a no event. Actually read and digest things coming out from the National Weather Service.

If it hits west of appalach I believe it could be a Hurricane but it wont be one east of there. I'm going by climatology and nhc saying dry air will get into the system and keep it in check. It was supposed to be a TS a long time ago and it cant get stacked enough to do it. The models are now trending more west which means less rain for us as the storm may tighten up and not be lopsided. if the NE component doesnt happen as sharply and it becomes a panhandle hit. If we who live here and has seen this scenario play out many times are wrong I will be surprised but there is always a first time. But thats the beauty of weather. Take it as it comes hope for the best. I dont wish for flooding or storm surge. I'll admit id like some winds though. maybe this stays a depression. I guess we will know more tomorrow.



Agreed the tropical moisture drawn in with the system combined with the surge-favorable bathymetry (spelling) of the western florida coast will cause problems even if this is a 45-50knot tropical storm at landfall.

[gatorcane]

Wind gust to 33mph in Opa Locka reported. Heavy squalls through SE Florida going on.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I would personally upgrade this to a 40mph storm right now. Just my opinion though.

I didnt see a single TS force surface wind yet in recon...

Seen somewhere they did find TS winds in this system but having a hard time finding source again.

[SunnyThoughts]

Reading where Dvorak estimates are up apparently. Don't have the numbers, but maybe someone here does.

[gatorcane]

Big convection burst in progress, hot tower alert:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[tarheelprogrammer]

Reading where Dvorak estimates are up apparently. Don't have the numbers, but maybe someone here does.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt09L.html

There is a link to estimate.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 AUG 2016 Time : 181500 UTC
Lat : 24:09:16 N Lon : 87:18:50 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 / 996.7mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.3 3.3

[HurriGuy]

FWIW,

Latest HRRR drifts the circulation all the way to 90W

[indianforever]

chances it reaches the bay of Campeche?

[JaxGator]

I would personally upgrade this to a 40mph storm right now. Just my opinion though.

I didnt see a single TS force surface wind yet in recon...

Seen somewhere they did find TS winds in this system but having a hard time finding source again.

The Global Hawk drone went into the storm and found those readings.

[tarheelprogrammer]

chances it reaches the bay of Campeche?

2%

[tarheelprogrammer]

I didnt see a single TS force surface wind yet in recon...

Seen somewhere they did find TS winds in this system but having a hard time finding source again.

The Global Hawk drone went into the storm and found those readings.

So, are drones less reliable when taking measurements? Or are they wanting plane readings as well?

[SunnyThoughts]

Reading where Dvorak estimates are up apparently. Don't have the numbers, but maybe someone here does.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt09L.html

There is a link to estimate.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 AUG 2016 Time : 181500 UTC
Lat : 24:09:16 N Lon : 87:18:50 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 / 996.7mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.3 3.3

wow, well that certainly would justify a TS...but with recon in the area not finding pressure or winds to match...not sure how important it is. Maybe just haven't sampled the right area yet.

[jlauderdal]

we are going to hit our 2-4 inche storm total forecast this afternoon in SE Florida...flood watch has been hoisted.

[OntarioEggplant]

I'm very impressed by the swirl at 23 N 87 W

[tropicwatch]

Communication problems?

[JaxGator]

Seen somewhere they did find TS winds in this system but having a hard time finding source again.

The Global Hawk drone went into the storm and found those readings.

So, are drones less reliable when taking measurements? Or are they wanting plane readings as well?

Don't know but I do think they want to confirm for sure if those winds are persistent.