ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurriGuy]

That outflow channel looks like it is coming directly out of the center.

If the southerly inflow is making it to the center, then this is making plenty of sense.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Looks like the motion is very slow and convection is popping in all quadrants, albeit just starting. Can see that the banding is starting with the relaxed shear. The MLC looks to be relaxing and/or lining up with the MLC to me.

[HurriGuy]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-86&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=black

Air is quickly escaping the enter to the north.

[HurriGuy]

Just note:

They are flying 1000 meters higher right now than the last 2 passes

[cdavis6287]

If the center is relocating to the south, what does that mean for intensity and track. Would the storm hit more south on the west coast of Fl or more north?

[gatorcane]

It really looks like the new center may be under the MLC a little north of the Yucatan with the spin seen in loop below, if so, this system is looking very symmetric and it could really start to intensify.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Aric Dunn]

Actually the last pass does look elongated.. need to see another pass hopefully NE to SW would be nice.

[ronjon]

yeah I think very close to taking off (I know said that like 2 or 3 times before) with the MLC catching up finally with the LLC. Might get a vertically stacked system finally.

[whatacane]

It really looks like the new center may be under the MLC a little north of the Yucatan with the spin seen in loop below, if so, this system is looking very symmetric and it could really start to intensify.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

how far is this from what the nhc has marked?

[jlauderdal]

Not impressed with this burst. Looks pretty on IR, but on visible, looks like a lot of cirrus. The low level winds do not look to be the most favorable either. The inflow is not going into the center. it's focused farther south

yes...folks, you have to be careful with instant gratification of pretty IR colors, this has been posted before...visible, radar when possible and even that can fool you due to the beam and finally recon obs...nhc knows how to locate a center and they have to go with something every 6 hours but it can change when its messy..the problem we see in these sloppy systems is the centers move around and there are llc and mlc thus the disorganized mess...those in the cone should prepare for a TS and maybe a low end hurricane...that could change too towards the downside

[ronjon]

Bigger question..does NHC upgrade at 5 pm to TS? I think they almost have to for the public warnings.

[HurriGuy]

NHC has about 13 minutes to make a call. I would assume watches are coming up at a minimum

[gatorcane]

Bigger question..does NHC upgrade at 5 pm to TS? I think they almost have to for the public warnings.

Yes I think they pull the trigger.

[cdavis6287]

Prob will update. My best guess. Seen worse TS

[Aric Dunn]

Bigger question..does NHC upgrade at 5 pm to TS? I think they almost have to for the public warnings.

Yes I think they pull the trigger.

they wont upgrade till the winds are there.. and nothing even close yet.

[JaxGator]

I think NHC might do a special advisory if recon finds TS winds after 5pm. They haven't sampled the whole storm yet imo or am I wrong?

[HurriGuy]

Each frame, it appears llc is growing closer to mlc or whatever evolution is occurring.

They should probably wait

[BensonTCwatcher]

It really looking (needs few more visible frames) http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/ to see for sure that the MLC is working down to the surface. The older LLC looks to be "overcome" by the stronger circ (old MLC) The new CoC is tlted form N to S and looks to be stacking up.

[Tireman4]

267 pages and counting over an invest/depression...goodness..

[Evil Jeremy]

NHC taking their time... as they should. I'm expecting TS watches to go up for the Florida gulf coast.