ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SunnyThoughts]

NHC taking their time... as they should. I'm expecting TS watches to go up for the Florida gulf coast.

I have a feeling that will be the case also. Of course I've been wrong before.

[ftolmsteen]

Pressure already showing 29.82 here at my house along Pasco county coastline.

[pcolaman]

They are taking there time with the update

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
2100 UTC TUE AUG 30 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM
THE ANCLOTE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST WEST OF INDIAN PASS TO THE
WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANCLOTE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF INDIAN PASS TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 87.3W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 87.3W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 87.1W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 24.9N 87.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 26.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 27.5N 86.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 29.0N 84.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 32.9N 79.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 36.5N 71.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 39.0N 68.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 87.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Evil Jeremy]

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM
THE ANCLOTE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST WEST OF INDIAN PASS TO THE
WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE.

[jlauderdal]

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM THE ANCLOTE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
400 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 87.3W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM W OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Florida Gulf coast from
the Anclote River to Indian Pass. A Tropical Storm Watch has been
issued for the Florida Gulf coast west of Indian Pass to the
Walton/Bay County line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Indian Pass to the Walton/Bay County line


TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
400 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

The system has still not become better organized on satellite
imagery, with limited evidence of banding features. There is an
apparent mid-level center of circulation located south of the
low-level center. The highest flight-level wind reported by a
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 34 kt and the highest
SFMR-observed surface winds were 30 kt, which continues to be used
for the advisory intensity. There is some evidence of increasing
upper-level outflow to the north. The latest intensity
guidance is a little more aggressive than before, with a little less
shear forecast over the northern Gulf coast region. The official
intensity forecast has been increased slightly in comparison to the
previous one, and is a little below the latest model consensus.
Given that a couple of the models show the system becoming a
hurricane, and the 48-hour forecast point implies
tropical-storm-force winds near the coast, it is prudent to issue a
hurricane watch for a portion of the northeast Gulf of Mexico coast
at this time.

Fixes from the NOAA aircraft show that the initial motion is
northwestward, or 320/4 kt. The global models continue to show a
mid-tropospheric trough developing over the southeastern United
States during the next couple of days. This should cause the
tropical cyclone to turn toward the north and north-northeast in
24-48 hours. The dynamical track guidance models have shifted a
bit to the west compared to their earlier runs, as has the
multi-model consensus. Therefore the official track forecast is
also west of the previous one.

It is important not to focus on the forecast landfall point of this
system. Among other reasons, dangerous storm surge flooding is
likely along the coast well to the east and south of the path of the
center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 24.4N 87.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 24.9N 87.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 26.0N 87.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 27.5N 86.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 29.0N 84.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 32.9N 79.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 36.5N 71.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 39.0N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[HurricaneBelle]

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM
THE ANCLOTE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST WEST OF INDIAN PASS TO THE
WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE.

Interesting they're leaving the immediate Tampa Bay area out of the watches/warnings. Surprised we're not even getting a TS watch out of it.

[OntarioEggplant]

So much sampling of the west side of the storm.

[jlauderdal]

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM
THE ANCLOTE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST WEST OF INDIAN PASS TO THE
WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE.

very aggressive for a td

[wxman57]

That's quite a mid-level rotation south of the surface center. Looks much improved on satellite imagery. I think it's primed to become Hermine tonight. Could be near (or at) hurricane strength when it impacts the northern FL Peninsula (or eastern FL Panhandle) on Thursday. Labor Day weekend along the SE U.S. Coast may start out tropical-stormy, mostly on Friday.

[HurriGuy]

Pretty decent cone shift to west

[xcool22]

imo not move nne

[RL3AO]

Bigger question..does NHC upgrade at 5 pm to TS? I think they almost have to for the public warnings.

Science first. It's a TS when the data shows it has the winds.

[pcolaman]

I wouldn't be surprised to see the models shift to the west once again due to to DRIFT !

[Nikki]

Excerpt from NHC Discussion: The latest intensity
guidance is a little more aggressive than before, with a little less
shear forecast over the northern Gulf coast region. The official
intensity forecast has been increased slightly in comparison to the
previous one, and is a little below the latest model consensus.
Given that a couple of the models show the system becoming a
hurricane, and the 48-hour forecast point implies
tropical-storm-force winds near the coast, it is prudent to issue a
hurricane watch for a portion of the northeast Gulf of Mexico coast
at this time.

[HurriGuy]

Where did they get the NW movement from?

Maybe WNW, but I am surprised with that movement decision

Edit: Well I guess if you go from the last advisory to this one, it is NW

[ronjon]

Strange why they didn't extend the TS watch to cover Tampa Bay area - since they'll likely will experience those conditions on the SE quad of the storm.

[Stormcenter]

Just my two cents here but it looks like the center should be further south. Is it really moving NW?

[bg1]

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 32.9N 79.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

That is aggressive. Has conditions improved or expected to improve that much?