ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Strange why they didn't extend the TS watch to cover Tampa Bay area - since they'll likely will experience those conditions on the SE quad of the storm.

Yeah that is a bit of a head scratcher to me.

[xcool22]

Where did they get the NW movement from?

Maybe WNW, but I am surprised with that movement decision

Edit: Well I guess if you go from the last advisory to this one, it is NW

I see move west imo

[Stormcenter]

I would not feeling warm and fuzzy if I lived as far west as the AL/Fl. border. IMO

[Soonercane]

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 32.9N 79.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

That is aggressive. Has conditions improved or expected to improve that much?

Mainly a response to the guidance relaxing shear a bit, although that is not an extremely dramatic improvement over the previous intensity forecast I believe.

[KWT]

What is interesting is the need for hurricane watches, NHC obviously thinks this is about to take off.

Wonder whether the forecast track will change if it does relocate to the mlc.

[Kazmit]

I'd say Subtropical Storm One of 1982 is a possible analog, track-wise.

[SunnyThoughts]

I would not feeling warm and fuzzy if I lived as far west as the AL/Fl. border. IMO

Yeah, everybody here very aware and staying vigilant. Just watching and waiting.

[Soonercane]

What is interesting is the need for hurricane watches, NHC obviously thinks this is about to take off.

Wonder whether the forecast track will change if it does relocate to the mlc.

Well it wouldn't take much of a deviation from their current intensity projections for this thing to reach hurricane intensity (and obviously intensity forecasts have pretty large error bars), so not a huge leap by them to put watches up.

[jlauderdal]

Strange why they didn't extend the TS watch to cover Tampa Bay area - since they'll likely will experience those conditions on the SE quad of the storm.

very strange considering they will be on the right side of the storm...when do you ever have a hurricane watch and then it just stops with no TS watch continuing on

[caneman]

Strange why they didn't extend the TS watch to cover Tampa Bay area - since they'll likely will experience those conditions on the SE quad of the storm.

Technically the Anclote river is part of the Tampa Bay area. I believe that's Tarpon Springs.I live in Pinellas near the beaches, the little peninsula, and anytime one of these goes by us we usually get a tropical storm blow. So, they should have included Pinellas county down thru St. Pete.

[ftolmsteen]

Strange why they didn't extend the TS watch to cover Tampa Bay area - since they'll likely will experience those conditions on the SE quad of the storm.

Technically the Anclote river is part of the Tampa Bay area. I believe that's Tarpon Springs.I live in Pinellas near the beaches, the little peninsula, and anytime one of thsee goes by us we usually get a tropical storm blow.

It's basically the Pasco/Pinellas county line.

[pcolaman]

Strange why they didn't extend the TS watch to cover Tampa Bay area - since they'll likely will experience those conditions on the SE quad of the storm.

very strange considering they will be on the right side of the storm...when do you ever have a hurricane watch and then it just stops with no TS watch continuing on

Maybe the thoughts of shifting the cone again due to tropical storm watches extended to the left and not the right ?

[caneman]

It's still part of a pinellas, all they had to do was take the watches 30 miles south to protect the largest amount of people on this coast. However, maybe they see something. Maybe they are anticipating further adjustments west.

[johngaltfla]

Strange why they didn't extend the TS watch to cover Tampa Bay area - since they'll likely will experience those conditions on the SE quad of the storm.

IMHO, and please ask the pros as I'm just an observer, I think the high pressure system to our east will keep this far enough west to prevent a sudden turn to the ENE towards Cedar Key-Big Bend thus justifying no watches or warnins for Tampa Bay or areas south.

I hope they are right but any shifts after the storm gets better organized and everyone should have their head on a swivel. I fell better, for now. Panama City however, heads up and prep up!

[GeneratorPower]

Lack of a taper down to Tropical Storm watch south to Tampa should show everyone. NHC makes decisions based on many factors not just pure science. TS Watch sets in motion lots of things by county emergency managers, etc. NHC didn't want to force that right now.

Those of you who think NHC does stuff only based on science, hope this convinces you.

[gatorcane]

Mid-level spin looks even more pronounced. Look just north of the NE tip of Yucatan. Could it work down to the surface?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[wjs3]

we are going to hit our 2-4 inche storm total forecast this afternoon in SE Florida...flood watch has been hoisted.

Hey, is that 26th street by the Walgreens? That's no fair. It always floods there, lol!

[caneman]

Lack of a taper down to Tropical Storm watch south to Tampa should show everyone. NHC makes decisions based on many factors not just pure science. TS Watch sets in motion lots of things by county emergency managers, etc. NHC didn't want to force that right now.

Those of you who think NHC does stuff only based on science, hope this convinces you.

I'm well aware of of the balance of fright and preparedness, hence my statment that the nhc may anticipate it to go more West since that is where the T.S. watches are.

[HurriGuy]

Mid-level spin looks even more pronounced. Look just north of the NE tip of Yucatan. Could it work down to the surface?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

I would think not a chance.

No persisting convection over it. It does look like it is moving towards this recent blow up.

[StarmanHDB]

Mid-level spin looks even more pronounced. Look just north of the NE tip of Yucatan. Could it work down to the surface?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

I'm thinking with tonight's D-MAX that the MLC will stack with the LLC and bring us Tropical Storm Hermine. It's already starting with this latest boom of convection. Check out the RGB presentation. Impressive! Our little system is growing up....AWWWWWWWWWWWW!