ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NWFL56]

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 32.9N 79.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

That is aggressive. Has conditions improved or expected to improve that much?

Mainly a response to the guidance relaxing shear a bit, although that is not an extremely dramatic improvement over the previous intensity forecast I believe.

Think those coordinates are off of The Carolinas, after crossing the penninsula back into the Atlantic.

[tropicwatch]

Convection building nw of mlc and west of llc.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-85&type=Animation&info=vis&zoom=1&numframes=15

[tolakram]

Most models show a weak system for another 24 hours so don't let your guard down if this is still struggling tomorrow.

[Aric Dunn]

lets see what the center is doing.. getting pulled closer to the convection to south maybe ?

[jlauderdal]

we are going to hit our 2-4 inche storm total forecast this afternoon in SE Florida...flood watch has been hoisted.

Hey, is that 26th street by the Walgreens? That's no fair. It always floods there, lol!

No, commercial and federal area...there was plenty of standing water around sofla today

[pgoss11]

That is aggressive. Has conditions improved or expected to improve that much?

Mainly a response to the guidance relaxing shear a bit, although that is not an extremely dramatic improvement over the previous intensity forecast I believe.

Think those coordinates are off of The Carolinas, after crossing the penninsula back into the Atlantic.

I think those coordinates are pretty close to us here in Charleston SC!

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Looks like Tampa is all clear. I guess ill have to drink all those beers on Labor day

[PTrackerLA]

The circulation evenlope of TD #9 is now taking up almost the entire gulf of Mexico. Very impressive!

[drezee]

Recon just dipped S for some reason on the approach to the center...maybe the LLC is going SE again

[Stormcenter]

With every new satellite frame it has.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

Mid-level spin looks even more pronounced. Look just north of the NE tip of Yucatan. Could it work down to the surface?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Aric Dunn]

Recon just dipped S for some reason on the approach to the center...maybe the LLC is going SE again

thats because as I suspected the convection to the south is pulling the center to the SW fairly normal. but will it help it..

[SeGaBob]

Have they even sampled any winds yet?

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS is now even stronger with landfall. Think the trend continues. Also, a little faster it appears because it is further west.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like the LLC is moving SSW possibly attempting to align with the MLC, that MLC is really impressive right now.

[psyclone]

Look carefully at the landfall point. it has shifted north to Taylor county. that means the southern extent of TS winds will be farther north. the decision to use Anclote as the southern break for the watch looks perfectly reasonable to me. The TS wind probability map spells this out nicely. I may be an unusual bird here but I'm delighted to NOT be included in the watch... although I could effortlessly ride my bike into the watch area. If this system does gather strength and landfall near its projected area, it is in a perfect position to deliver a substantial water rise to the big bend region which is the most surge prone area in the entire basin... a point often made by Steve Lyons on the weather channel when he was their tropical expert.

[stormreader]

Storms really blowing up now around the low level center. Especially south side. Not as much action yet in the northern quadrant. System itself looks to be maintaining a west heading. Don't as yet see any northern component.

[jlf7]

Surface marked with the green circle at 3:30pm:




The 500 level with respect to surface at the same time time:




The 500 level with respect to surface 2 hours later, about 5:30pm Eastern time:

[caneman]

Look carefully at the landfall point. it has shifted north to Taylor county. that means the southern extent of TS winds will be farther north. the decision to use Anclote as the southern break for the watch looks perfectly reasonable to me. The TS wind probability map spells this out nicely. I may be an unusual bird here but I'm delighted to NOT be included in the watch... although I could effortlessly ride my bike into the watch area. If this system does gather strength and landfall near its projected area, it is in a perfect position to deliver a substantial water rise to the big bend region which is the most surge prone area in the entire basin... a point often made by Steve Lyons on the weather channel when he was their tropical expert.

I'm delighted as well. However, you know there are many people that don't prepare or keep an eye on things as they should. Having said that, I have full confidence in the NHC.

[psyclone]

For folks outside of the potential storm surge zone, take a look at the QPF forecast...it is 7"+ from Sarasota county north through the big bend with 10"+ grazing the coast from Pinellas to Dixie county. That is a big area threatened by dangerous flooding rain potential. If you're south of the watch area and think you're off the hook...Buzzers...the threat has always been and remains heavy rain. Remember rainfall is the one hazard not correlated to the storm's strength. Everything else is.

[Soonercane]

Storms really blowing up now around the low level center. Especially south side. Not as much action yet in the northern quadrant. System itself looks to be maintaining a west heading. Don't as yet see any northern component.

Yep system may be waning, hermine will have to wait another day (again).